Is the situation in the Middle East escalating again? Black smoke suddenly appears at a Saudi refinery, and Saudi Arabia is reportedly preparing for a major offensive against the Houthi rebels.

Houthi rebels launched a missile attack on a Saudi Aramco oil refinery, prompting Saudi Arabia to plan a large-scale counter-offensive.

According to CCTV News , the Houthi rebels in Yemen issued a statement on the evening of October 3 local time, saying that in response to Saudi airstrikes on Sana'a and other parts of Yemen, the Houthis used multiple ballistic missiles and drones to strike targets of Saudi Aramco in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, and claimed that the operation "successfully achieved its objectives," "hitting the targets and causing fires."

Saudi Arabia has not yet issued an official statement regarding the attack. Unverified footage circulating on social media platform X shows thick black smoke rising from multiple locations at the Riyadh Aramco refinery.

Turkish media outlet Türkiye Today, citing data from NASA's FIRMS satellite monitoring system, reported high-intensity thermal radiation signals in the refinery area. The Riyadh refinery is one of Saudi Arabia's most important refining assets, with a daily processing capacity of approximately 130,000 barrels.

The Houthi statement also said that Saudi Arabia had launched 60 airstrikes and missile attacks on Yemen in the past 24 hours, bringing the total number of such attacks to 1,410 since the escalation on September 3. The Houthis will continue their "blockade for blockade" and "escalation for escalation" tactics until Saudi Arabia ceases its attacks and lifts restrictions on Houthi-controlled ports and airports.

Meanwhile, according to Axios, citing two US officials, Saudi Arabia is planning a large-scale military operation against the Houthis in the coming days, targeting the coastal areas that have enabled the Houthis to control the crucial Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Saudi Arabia is preparing a large-scale counter-offensive; the United States will not participate in direct military operations for the time being.

According to Axios, preparations for Saudi Arabia's military operation have been underway for several weeks, and the relevant plans were approved by the Saudi leadership a few days ago.

The report states that the operation will be led by Yemeni government ground forces, supported by Saudi air power, with a focus on striking Houthi strategic strongholds along the coast.

According to the aforementioned US official, Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman called US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last Thursday to brief him on the operation and reiterated his request for US airstrikes against Houthi targets. The US official stated that the US "will not take kinetic military action at this time."

In an interview with Time magazine last week, Trump reiterated that he might escalate military action against Iran after the midterm elections if an acceptable agreement cannot be reached before the elections.

CCTV reported that the Houthi rebels have recently intensified their offensive against government forces and announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, which supports the Yemeni government. The Houthis have captured strategic locations including the Yemeni port city of Muha and Perim Island. On September 11, the Yemeni government stated that the Houthis had taken control of the entire western coast of the country and were advancing their offensive into the southern province of Lahj.

With Iran's 45-day deadline expired, the risk of escalation in the conflict has increased.

University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape warned that October 1 could mark a new phase in this round of conflict.

He pointed out that Iran's Supreme National Security Council decided on August 16 that if Washington fails to lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports within 45 days, Tehran will retain the option to launch a new attack on US forces. Pape wrote:

This deadline has now expired.

The aforementioned factors are intertwined and overlapping. The Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's core infrastructure, the imminent large-scale Saudi military operation, the stalemate in US-Iran negotiations, and the expiration of Iran's deadline have made the prospects for short-term easing of the situation in the Gulf region increasingly bleak. The related geopolitical risk premium is expected to continue to support the market's high focus on the stability of energy supply.

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