Is there a "World Cup effect" in A-shares?

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As the 2026 World Cup approaches, market attention to the "World Cup effect" is heating up again. The Zheshang Securities strategy team pointed out in its report that the so-called "World Cup effect" in A-shares is mostly a combination of statistical coincidences and emotional disturbances and is not a key factor determining market trends.

According to the report, for investors, on one hand, there is no need for irrational panic about positions due to the approaching tournament; on the other hand, investors should be wary of the risk of chasing short-term spikes in event-themed stocks. The pulsed nature of such markets means they rise quickly and fall quickly, and blindly chasing highs can easily lead to passive situations.

During periods of intensified emotional disturbance, investors should return to industrial logic and business profitability itself, avoiding blindly chasing speculative thematic opportunities amid thin trading. The frenzy of the arena will eventually fade, but the logic of the market remains unchanged.

"More declines than rises," but not a hard rule

Looking back over the past thirty years, during the eight World Cups from 1994 to 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index fell five times and rose three times, with a probability of market adjustment around 62.5%. At first glance, the "World Cup curse" seems to have some basis.

However, the other side of the data is also noteworthy: During the same period, the Wind All-A Index showed an even split between rises and falls, with no obvious one-sided decline. Globally, the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 also rose and fell equally in the past eight World Cups; although the Nasdaq saw five declines and three rises, overall, global equity markets do not show a significant pattern of rises or falls.

The drivers behind the data: performance vacuum and tightening liquidity

The statistic of "more declines than rises" actually comes from two core reasons.

First, calendar effect. The World Cup period (mid-June to mid-July) coincides with the "performance vacuum period" before the A-share semiannual reports, when information on business fundamentals stalls and funds become more conservative. Also, banks face regulatory assessment at the end of June, causing liquidity to tighten, which considerably overlaps with the World Cup period.

Second, diverted attention. Retail investors make up a large proportion of A-shares, and their trading intention drops while watching the World Cup matches, with short-term funds also moving to event-themed stocks. The trading volume of the Shanghai Composite Index notably decreased during the 2006, 2010, and 2018 World Cups; US stock markets also saw volume troughs, and these multiple factors working together amplified the market's quietness.

It is worth mentioning that the 2022 World Cup was held in late November, and trading volume did not notably decrease, but instead saw two spikes. This further proves: the so-called "World Cup effect" is more a result of summer seasonal effects, fundamental vacuum, and diverted attention than any magic of the World Cup itself.

Pulsed markets are hard to sustain: driven by emotion, lacking fundamentals

World Cup concept stocks have always been a hot topic in the market, and sectors like beer, sports, and media get high attention at every World Cup. However, data offers a sober warning.

Take the 2022 Qatar World Cup as an example: the sports-themed index edged higher in the two weeks leading up to the event, then quickly pulled back, with all accumulated gains erased within three trading days. In May 2026, A-share sports stocks again moved collectively, but the price trends rapidly diverged.

The essence of this pulsed market is speculative gaming driven by emotion, not continuous allocation based on fundamentals. The odds of chasing such themes in a shrinking market are very low.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks; investment needs caution. This article does not constitute individual investment advice and has not taken into account the special investment goals, financial situation, or needs of any individual user. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their specific circumstances. Investing based on this, you are responsible for your own risk. ```