J.P. Morgan's "Technical Analysis": Oil prices reach key resistance, medium-term bearish outlook for gold, bearish view on copper to be reinforced if it breaks support

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The commodity markets are simultaneously approaching multiple technical levels.

According to news from Chase the Wind Trading Desk, JPMorgan technical strategist Jason Hunter pointed out in the commodity technical chart report on July 21 that major commodities such as Brent crude oil, gold, and copper have all reached key price nodes, but there is significant divergence in directional signals—crude oil bulls face resistance in the short term, gold's medium-term bearish pattern has not reversed, and copper prices are in an unresolved state of a “potential cyclical top.”

The common feature of these three assets is: limited upside room, while downside risks are relatively clear. Whether it’s oil prices being resisted near 85, or gold prices remaining bearish below 4197, the chart structure now signals “more confirmation needed for the upside, paths already established for the downside.”

Crude Oil: Rebound Capped, Summer Range Ceiling Approached

Brent crude oil (December 2026 contract) rebounded from the 72.07-72.51 USD support range, but the rally encountered dense resistance near 83-85.71, currently touching a multi-layered key resistance zone:

• 83-84 USD: June breakdown level
• 84.65 USD: May 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
• 85.71 USD: Tactical bottom target from June to July

According to JPMorgan, this range is viewed as the “likely upper limit of the summer trading range.”

But Hunter also noted, “Significant geopolitical and headline risks make chart-based judgments less certain.”

If oil prices can break through the above resistance zone, the next level to watch is 97.87 USD—the December 2020 channel resistance.

Conversely, if the price falls below the recent technical breakout support of 78.32-78.97 USD, the short-term bullish momentum will be fully dispelled, reinforcing the baseline expectation of range-bound trading.

In short: Oil prices are now close to the “ceiling,” requiring multiple resistance breakthroughs on the upside, while there is a clear stop-loss reference on the downside.

Gold: Medium-term Bearish, Limited Rebound Room

Spot gold is currently seeking support near 4,074 USD (August 2022 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and 3,886 USD (October 2025 low).

Recently, momentum divergence buy signals appeared, which means there may be more consolidation in the short term. But JPMorgan says, “We expect the upside to be limited throughout the summer.”

There are three reasons:

1. The chart lacks medium-term accumulation patterns—There isn’t enough bottom building, making a trend reversal unlikely.
2. US Dollar Index (DXY) strength—Running above the annual range breakout, suppressing gold.
3. 2-year US Treasury yields are elevated—Having broken out of multi-quarter ranges, putting pressure on gold.

As long as gold prices remain below the 4,197-4,264 USD trendline cluster, JPMorgan views a “strong negative medium-term bias.” Medium-term resistance is near 4,500 USD.

If gold accelerates downward again, the next support targets are:

• 3,605 USD: August 2022 50% Fibonacci retracement
• 3,400-3,500 USD: Q4 2025 breakout zone

Copper: Tactical Resistance Broken, But Top Cycle Risk Remains

LME three-month copper successfully broke through tactical resistance around 13,400 USD, temporarily easing immediate bearish pressure.

But JPMorgan notes that copper, in 2026, lost long-term bullish momentum in the 14,000-15,000 USD resistance zone, “with chart patterns looking like a potential cycle top.”

Key support is at 12,537-12,988 USD. Hunter states, “If the price falls below this medium-term support range, it will strengthen the medium-term bearish outlook.”

In other words: Copper is currently in a state of “high-level consolidation, top yet to be confirmed.” If the support fails, bearish logic will be triggered.

Aluminum and Nickel: Impactful Sell-off, Limited Rebound Room

Compared to copper's “sideways watch,” the technical patterns for aluminum and nickel are more clearly bearish.

Aluminum (LME three months):

The tactical rebound from 3,043 USD (April 2025 50% Fibonacci retracement) currently displays “corrective” rather than trend features. Short-term resistance is at 3,325 USD (June 38.2% retracement), with the "ceiling" for the coming months expected near the 3,400-3,500 USD region—the breakdown area of the May to June top pattern. If it accelerates downward again, next support is at 2,868 USD (April 2025 61.8% retracement).

Nickel (LME three months):

After a sharp drop from May to July, nickel is rebounding from its 16,208-16,437 USD medium-term support area. But JPMorgan believes that the market will face substantial selling pressure near the 17,481-17,790 USD resistance cluster, “as there is currently no meaningful accumulation pattern.” If the support zone is broken downward, it may fully retreat to 13,865-14,235 USD (April/December 2025 lows).

Silver: Testing Support Zone, Rebound May Be Hard to Sustain

Spot silver is trying to stabilize after testing the 53.39-54.73 USD medium-term support range. This zone includes the Q4 2025 breakout level, along with multiple Fibonacci retracement and volatility targets.

JPMorgan expects the short-term rebound may fade near 64 USD (2026 chart inflection point), with heavier resistance concentrated in the 66.87-72.07 USD range.

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