Jensen Huang called out "1 trillion," so why does Nvidia still struggle to rise?

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NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang presented the largest revenue outlook in history at the annual GTC conference, yet failed to ignite the stock price. This reflects a deeper dilemma: when a company grows big enough to impact the global economic landscape, the market's pricing logic for "good news" changes accordingly.

On Monday, Huang announced during his GTC keynote speech that NVIDIA's revenue visibility for the Blackwell and Rubin platforms has exceeded $1 trillion, covering the period from 2025 to the end of 2027. This figure is double the $500 billion outlook he revealed at last fall's GTC in Washington. However, NVIDIA's stock price remained virtually unchanged after the speech and fell a further 0.7% on Tuesday.

The market's lukewarm reaction was no accident. Analysts pointed out that the $1 trillion outlook offers limited upside compared to Wall Street's existing expectations; meanwhile, NVIDIA's scale has grown so large that traditional valuation logic no longer applies. Coupled with macroeconomic headwinds, the stock price finds it hard to locate a new catalyst for upward movement in the near term.

Strong Outlook, but Questionable Upside Surprise

Huang's $1 trillion outlook is undoubtedly impressive in absolute terms, but its degree of outperformance is significantly discounted when compared to Wall Street consensus.

According to MarketWatch, Seaport Research analyst Jay Goldberg commented that the outlook is "impressive in absolute terms," but compared to Wall Street consensus, "the upside is not substantial." FactSet data shows that consensus expectation for NVIDIA's 2027 data center revenue is about $443 billion, while Huang's $1 trillion figure only covers Blackwell and Rubin platforms, excluding other data center products, meaning total data center revenue will exceed this number.

Stifel analyst Ruben Roy wrote in a research report, "We believe Huang has addressed the core issue being discussed among the investor community, and the updated backlog data tends to confirm rather than raise existing expectations." Roy maintains a buy rating on NVIDIA with a target price of $250.

Independent analyst Richard Windsor raised doubts in his Radio Free Mobile report: Whether improved inference capabilities can truly translate into revenue depends on whether data center operators can continuously generate more income from expensive NVIDIA hardware. He noted that Blackwell should have brought similar economic benefits, but intense competition led to a drop in computing power prices, resulting in flat revenue.

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon, however, takes a relatively optimistic view. In his report on Tuesday, he pointed out that since the $1 trillion only counts Blackwell and Rubin, total data center revenue will exceed this figure; moreover, this guidance "is only a snapshot at the current point in time," with seven quarters left until the end of 2027, meaning there is still room for revenue trends to improve further—as Huang himself hinted in his speech.

The Challenge of Scale: The Law of Large Numbers Comes into Play

NVIDIA's deeper problem may not be the outlook itself, but that the company's size has become so big it makes the growth story harder to continuously attract capital.

Jay Goldberg stated directly in his Monday report, "NVIDIA is now so large that it's starting to run into the law of large numbers." He pointed out that NVIDIA holds over 80% market share in AI chips, and while the market "is still growing significantly," at this scale, "the road ahead looks tougher." Competitors are actively entering the field, with Broadcom and AMD both recently partnering with hyperscale cloud customers on chip collaborations; "NVIDIA now has to fight harder for revenue than it has in years."

TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter holds a similar view. In his Monday report, he noted that NVIDIA's market cap has exceeded $4 trillion, making its trading logic distinctly different from other stocks. "The reality is, for a company with a market cap over $4 trillion, there are trading and capital flow dynamics neither we nor investors are accustomed to."

Buchalter says investors are looking for chip stocks with doubling potential, and for NVIDIA to achieve that, its market cap would need to reach around $9 trillion—roughly equal to the combined GDP of Germany and India. "We often hear investor feedback that companies related to NVIDIA in its supply chain have greater resilience and upside potential than NVIDIA itself."

Macroeconomic Headwinds Suppress, Stock Price Stuck in Range

Beyond valuation challenges, deteriorating macro conditions have continued to suppress NVIDIA's stock price performance.

Some analyses point out that NVIDIA's stock price has basically been stuck in the $180–$190 range since last summer. Initial concerns late last year about the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending have now been magnified by market risk-aversion caused by the Iran conflict, a narrowing of interest rate cut expectations, and growing fears of recession—all forming macro pressures that make NVIDIA's stock price hard to break out.

Comparing with history, NVIDIA's stock reaction after this GTC is clearly weaker than previous years. Dow Jones Market Data shows that after the GTC conferences in March 2024 and March 2025, NVIDIA stock rose 3.12% and 3.15% respectively the following day; after the latest speech, the price only edged up 1.7%, then fell 0.7% on Tuesday.

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