Joining Forces with FAW to Develop Heavy Trucks: CATL's Second Growth Curve?

CATL is building a new business growth engine by deepening its presence in the commercial vehicle sector.

On the evening of November 27, FAW Jiefang announced that it would increase its investment in the joint venture Jiefang Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. by 191 million yuan through its wholly-owned subsidiary. CATL and newly introduced investor Teld New Energy Co., Ltd. simultaneously increased their investment, with the three parties investing a total of 412 million yuan.

Data shows that in September this year, FAW Jiefang, with traditional medium and heavy-duty truck sales of 13,700 units and a market share of 25.7%, as well as new energy medium and heavy-duty truck sales of 3,800 units and a market share of 17.6%, became the only "double champion" in the domestic medium and heavy-duty truck terminal market that month. Recently, the company also released a new energy trunk transportation solution to further promote the scenario-based implementation of new energy technologies.

WallstreetCN mentioned that, according to a Morgan Stanley research report released on the same day, the rapidly growing electric truck market will effectively offset the weakness in the passenger car market and become a core pillar of CATL's business growth over the next few years. The bank forecasts that truck electrification will help CATL achieve 23% year-on-year growth in its EV battery business by 2026.

Shifting from product competition to ecosystem competition, the deepening cooperation between CATL and FAW Jiefang, combined with analysts' strong expectations for this sector, suggests the commercial vehicle market is moving from the margins to center stage, potentially reshaping the growth potential imagined for the leading power battery manufacturer.

Deepening Strategic Alliance: Building a "Vehicle-Battery-Network" Ecosystem Loop

This capital increase will reshape Jiefang Times' equity structure and resource allocation.

After the transaction, Jiefang Times' registered capital will rise sharply from 90 million yuan to about 491 million yuan. In terms of equity structure, FAW Jiefang and CATL's shareholding ratios will be adjusted to 47.0270% respectively, while Teld, the leading charging facility provider, will hold 5.9460% of the shares.

Founded in March 2023, Jiefang Times was jointly established through a 50-50% equity split between FAW Limited and CATL, focusing on full life-cycle services for new energy commercial vehicles, with its core business covering vehicle-battery separation, battery swapping station operations, green electricity trading, and other areas.

According to reports, ever since Jiefang Times began cooperating with CATL, continued technological collaboration and business synergy have laid a solid foundation for the large-scale development of the new energy commercial vehicle market.

The introduction of Teld, the leading charging facility provider, is an important strategic decision by FAW Jiefang based on trends in the new energy commercial vehicle industry; Teld's participation will further enhance Jiefang Times’ capabilities in the energy supplement terminal sector.

FAW Jiefang emphasizes that the capital increase aims to integrate the advantages of complete vehicle manufacturing (FAW Jiefang), core battery technology (CATL), and the energy supplement network (Teld), systematically building a full-chain collaborative ecosystem loop for "vehicle, battery, and network".

This move also signifies that competition in the new energy commercial vehicle field is upgrading from a single product dimension to a higher-level ecosystem competition.

Strong Momentum for Heavy-Duty Truck Electrification, Penetration Rate Nears 30%

The electrification process in the commercial vehicle market is accelerating.

According to Morgan Stanley, in October 2025, China's electric heavy-duty truck sales grew 144% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of about 29% for the month, meaning that one out of every three heavy trucks sold was electric. The bank expects heavy-duty electric truck penetration rate to further increase to 35% by 2026.

As a leader in China's medium and heavy-duty truck market, FAW Jiefang became the only company to achieve first place in both traditional and new energy medium and heavy-duty truck sales in September, with new energy medium and heavy-duty truck market share reaching 17.6%, showing early signs of successful transition.

The electric light truck market also shows strong growth momentum.

In October 2025, electric light truck sales increased by 40% year-on-year, and cumulative sales since the beginning of the year rose 92% year-on-year. Although the penetration rate in October fell to 8.7% from the August peak, Morgan Stanley expects the electric light truck penetration rate to rise from 10% in 2025 to 25% in 2026, reaching 38% in 2027.

Corresponding to the increase in penetration rate, the battery demand brought by electric light trucks will rise from 30 GWh in 2025 to 95 GWh in 2026, and further climb to 150 GWh by 2027.

Analysts believe this highly certain incremental market provides battery suppliers with opportunities for both volume and price increases.

CATL: The Core Beneficiary of the Commercial Vehicle Wave

The acceleration of commercial vehicle electrification undoubtedly opens new growth space for CATL, the world’s largest power battery supplier.

Reports indicate that market analysts generally believe the certainty in truck electrification growth will effectively offset concerns about slower electric passenger car growth next year.

Morgan Stanley makes it clear that, thanks to its leading position in technology and market share, CATL will fully benefit from the long-term trend in truck electrification. The bank forecasts that robust demand in the truck market will support CATL's EV battery business to achieve 23% year-on-year growth in 2026.

Morgan Stanley maintains its "overweight" rating on CATL and sets a target price of 490 RMB. Relative to the stock price at the time of the report, this means the bank believes there is still 31% potential upside.

For investors, the commercial vehicle market is becoming an indispensable factor in judging the future value of this battery giant.

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