Joining the Nasdaq 100 and endorsements from six major investment banks couldn’t help: SpaceX falls nearly 7% to a new post-listing low, facing “supply cut-off” risk for its $45 billion computing contract.

Joining the Nasdaq 100 and endorsements from six major investment banks couldn’t help: SpaceX falls nearly 7% to a new post-listing low, facing “supply cut-off” risk for its $45 billion computing contract.

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SpaceX has just reached an important milestone in the capital markets, but is facing new business challenges.

On Tuesday, June 7th Eastern Time, SpaceX was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 Index, becoming one of the largest additions in recent years. Meanwhile, several Wall Street firms have begun coverage of this “space unicorn”; at least six brokerages including Morgan Stanley have given buy or equivalent ratings, with expectations that index and institutional funds will propel SpaceX’s valuation even higher.

But as these favorable capital market news were released, SpaceX’s stock failed to rebound and continued its recent decline. On Tuesday, SpaceX shares closed down more than 6.8%, reaching a new low since its IPO over three weeks ago.

An important factor dragging down market sentiment is SpaceX’s core project for AI computing infrastructure — the Colossus 2 data center — which is facing legal challenges. A lawsuit seeks a court order to shut down the gas turbines powering the data center, claiming the equipment was operated without the necessary permits.

If the court supports the lawsuit, SpaceX may face the risk of partial disruption to its computing power supply, which could also affect its $45 billion AI computing supply contract with Anthropic.

Colossus 2 gas turbines face lawsuit, SpaceX’s AI compute plans encounter short-term uncertainty

According to Daily Economic News, a lawsuit is seeking a court order for SpaceX to halt the operation of the gas turbines powering its Colossus 2 data center, citing lack of required permits prior to operation.

Colossus 2 is one of SpaceX’s key projects to accelerate AI infrastructure, as well as a key foundation in its partnership with Anthropic.

Previously, SpaceX reached a roughly $45 billion compute collaboration deal with Anthropic, planning to provide large-scale AI training and inference computing resources via its data centers and computing infrastructure.

The core risk of this lawsuit is that, if the court orders immediate shutdown of the gas turbines, the operational capacity of Colossus 2’s data center could be affected, thus impacting SpaceX’s ability to provide computing power to Anthropic.

However, the market remains focused on developments in the subsequent legal proceedings. Industry insiders believe lower courts may require SpaceX to suspend turbine operations while permits are obtained, but there is also a possibility the court will provide a grace period for compliance.

This means, in the short term, the issue is primarily an operational and compliance risk rather than a fundamental change to SpaceX’s AI infrastructure strategy.

AI data center expansion faces regulatory challenges; QTS Virginia project termination further highlights power supply bottlenecks

The backdrop of SpaceX’s Colossus 2 lawsuit is that AI data center construction across the US is increasingly challenged by tough energy and regulatory restrictions.

Just a few days ago, Blackstone subsidiary QTS Realty Trust announced the termination of its Virginia data center project and withdrew all related filings.

This project was previously regarded as one of the world’s largest data center campuses, and its termination means ultra-large-scale AI infrastructure builds face multiple constraints in land, power supply, environmental approvals, and local regulation.

For SpaceX, the Colossus 2 incident reveals not just a single project risk, but systemic issues for the whole AI computing power industry chain: even with capital and technological advantages, companies must solve the bottlenecks of energy supply and regulatory approval.

In recent years, the scale of AI model training has rapidly expanded, and tech giants like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta compete globally for electricity and data center resources. Securing stable, low-cost, large-scale energy supply has become a crucial foundation for the AI race.

SpaceX officially enters Nasdaq 100, expected to drive billions in passive investment demand

At the same time, this Tuesday SpaceX welcomed a major capital market event: SpaceX officially joined the Nasdaq 100 index, becoming the largest and fastest-added new component since its IPO.

The Nasdaq 100 tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies by market cap on the US Nasdaq, and is one of the world’s most important tech stock indexes. Given many ETFs and index funds passively track the index, new additions usually trigger institutional investment allocations.

The market expects that large passive investment products, including Invesco’s Invesco QQQ ETF, will need to buy SpaceX shares after the adjustment takes effect.

Based on SpaceX’s current valuation in the hundreds of billions, passive capital inflows could reach several billion dollars.

This is also one of the most important liquidity catalysts since SpaceX entered public markets.

Morgan Stanley and five other brokerages cover SpaceX, favoring three growth curves: rockets, satellite internet, and AI data centers

In addition to being added to the index, Wall Street institutions have recently increased coverage of SpaceX.

According to reports, at least six brokerages including Morgan Stanley have initiated research coverage of SpaceX, giving buy or equivalent ratings.

The core logic favored by institutions focuses on three businesses:

  • Starlink continues to grow.

Starlink has become one of SpaceX’s most mature commercial assets; institutions expect continued growth in user scale, enterprise services, and government orders to drive revenues further.

  • Starship represents future commercial space growth potential.

If Starship achieves scalable operations, SpaceX can further reduce orbital transport costs and unlock a larger commercial space market.

  • AI infrastructure business.

With surging AI training demand, SpaceX is leveraging its energy, land, and engineering capabilities to build large-scale computing centers, and is entering the AI infrastructure market through partnerships like Anthropic.

Multiple favorable factors but stock plunges; market fears over valuation, lock-up pressure and AI investment returns

However, despite Nasdaq 100 inclusion and concentrated institutional optimism, SpaceX’s stock failed to rebound and accelerated its decline on Tuesday.

Market analysis suggests SpaceX’s recent stock pressure may be influenced by multiple factors.

First, is the challenge of digesting its initial IPO valuation.

After its IPO, SpaceX was quickly embraced by the capital markets and valuations soared. Some investors are now focusing on whether Starlink’s growth, rocket business profitability, and AI data center operations can match market expectations given such high valuations.

Next, is changes in post-IPO capital structure.

While Nasdaq 100 inclusion will bring passive investment buying, some early investors and employee stock sales may exert short-term downward pressure.

Additionally, uncertainty over AI infrastructure investment returns also plays a role.

The market is now reassessing the AI capital expenditure cycle. Previously, companies like Oracle saw stock adjustments over data center financing, profit margins, and cash flow issues. Investors are more cautious about whether AI infrastructure spending can rapidly translate into profit.

Although SpaceX has unique rocket and satellite businesses, its AI data center strategy is still in the early stages. The Colossus 2 lawsuit serves as another reminder that the business still faces energy, regulatory, and execution risks.

From "space company" to AI infrastructure giant, SpaceX is entering a new valuation test period

SpaceX today is no longer just a traditional aerospace company.

With Starlink commercialization advancing, and the construction of the Colossus series of data centers, the company is trying to become a new tech platform connecting space infrastructure, satellite communications, and AI computing.

Inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 and concentrated Wall Street coverage signifies capital markets are paying much closer attention to SpaceX.

At the same time, the $45 billion Anthropic compute contract, AI data center expansion and high valuation expectations, mean the market will closely watch if SpaceX can solve the real bottlenecks in infrastructure construction.

This Colossus 2 gas turbine permit lawsuit may not change SpaceX’s long-term direction, but it highlights a real issue: In the AI era, the computing power race is not just about chips and models, but also a battle in electricity, land, regulation, and execution capability in infrastructure.

Risk notice and disclaimersThe market has risks, investments require caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment goals, financial status, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific situation. Investing based on this is at your own risk. ```