Just now, gold prices hit a new high for the 36th time this year.

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The strong rally in gold continues, with its price hitting the 36th record high of the year on Monday.

On Monday, the settlement price of the December gold futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $69.30, or 1.9%, to $3,775.10 per ounce, marking the highest closing price ever for the main contract. According to Dow Jones market data, this is the thirty-sixth time this year that the gold price has set a closing record.

So far this year, gold has risen about 43%, with its value far surpassing the inflation-adjusted peak of 1980, raising concerns among some investors that the rally may be unsustainable.

However, analysts believe that geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, and expectations of rate cuts have jointly created a "perfect storm" driving gold prices higher. Despite increasing worries about a bubble, key market indicators have not yet shown signs of panic.

"Perfect storm" supports gold's fundamentals

The current macro environment is a "perfect storm" favorable for the rise of gold and other precious metals.

Brett Friedman, a contributor to Winhall Risk Analytics and OptionMetrics, pointed out that many people view gold as the "perfect investment arriving at the perfect time," because it benefits from fears and uncertainties driven by inflation, currency devaluation, debt, conflict, and socio-economic anxiety. He added that for investors seeking "disaster insurance," gold is an ideal choice.

Adrian Ash, research director at BullionVault, described the current market environment as a "perfect storm" that continues to define the trends in gold and silver. He said: "As internal division and political violence in the US continue to worsen, expectations of Fed rate cuts are combining with escalating NATO-Russia tensions, jointly enhancing the safe-haven appeal of gold and silver."

Ash also pointed out that there are no signs of a slowdown in the collapse of global trust and cooperation. Last week's significant inflows into gold ETFs indicate that "the real money flowing into precious metals is just beginning." According to FactSet data, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has risen for five consecutive weeks.

In addition to macro factors, gold's technical patterns are sending out positive signals.

Jake Hanley, Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Specialist at Teucrium, said that Monday's rise in gold prices does not seem to be based on any new information, but is a "healthy bull market" driven by technical price action since September 1, bolstered by "growing inflation vigilance and geopolitical concerns."

Hanley further analyzed the gold price chart, saying it "shows classic breakout behavior: a long period of consolidation, a clear resistance level, a bullish trend arrangement, and decisive price surges with sustained upward momentum." He added: "This suggests a high-confidence breakout, with momentum on the bulls' side."

After the surge, is gold in a bubble?

Key indicators in the options market do not show signs of irrational frenzy.

Brett Friedman noted that while identifying financial bubbles "is notoriously difficult" and usually can only be confirmed after the fact, the gold market does not appear to be in a bubble. He believes gold is currently in an "aggressive and sustained bull market" rather than a bubble. He explained that if a bubble were forming, the market's implied volatility would increase due to heightened uncertainty and feverish price swings.

In addition, the spread between out-of-the-money options and at-the-money options has not widened significantly. Friedman said that in a bubble environment, investors would flock to cheaper out-of-the-money options that have the potential for enormous returns, leading to increased "skew" between the two.

But OptionMetrics data shows that this indicator is not at abnormal levels. He concluded: "Financial bubbles do occur, but they are very rare, and unsubstantiated assertions about them should be approached with extreme skepticism."

Although current market sentiment is optimistic, some signs still remind investors to remain cautious.

Brett Friedman also admitted that there are some "potential signs that a gold bubble may be forming." These signs include gold's increasing presence on social media and mainstream media, as well as explosive growth in gold ETF activity.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market involves risk, and investments should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any individual user. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their unique circumstances. Investing based on this article is at your own risk. ```