Key developments in Anthropic's IPO: Plans to allow existing shareholders to cash out, or extend lock-up periods, with a listing as early as the end of September.

Key developments in Anthropic's IPO: Plans to allow existing shareholders to cash out, or extend lock-up periods, with a listing as early as the end of September.

Anthropic's IPO process has seen another key development.

According to a report by technology media outlet The Information on Wednesday, the 27th (Eastern Time), Anthropic is considering allowing existing shareholders to sell some of their shares during the IPO, while also exploring setting a lock-up period of more than 180 days to meet the cash-out needs of early investors and employees, while controlling the supply and price volatility of shares after listing.

The report states that Anthropic plans to publicly disclose its IPO prospectus after Labor Day in the United States, on September 7th, and plans to hold an investor day in mid-September to introduce the company to potential investors and research analysts. The company is currently targeting a listing window of late September or early October , but the final date is still subject to change.

Market expectations for Anthropic's near-term IPO are also rising. Polymarket's official social media account posted a message with an image during the US stock market midday session on Thursday, stating that the market now believes there is an 86% probability that Anthropic will complete its IPO before October .

The proposal aims to allow existing shareholders to sell shares during the IPO.

According to The Information, Anthropic is considering allowing some existing shareholders to sell their shares directly during the IPO, meaning its IPO may include both newly issued shares and existing shares sold by current shareholders.

It is currently unclear what size of shares will ultimately be allowed to be sold, and which shareholders will be able to participate.

If this plan is implemented, Anthropic will differ from the practices of some large tech IPOs this year. The Information previously noted that SpaceX and Cerebras IPOs did not allow existing shareholders to sell shares during the IPO phase, while large tech companies in recent years, such as CoreWeave and Figma, included arrangements for the sale of existing shares.

For Anthropic, allowing some existing shareholders to cash out during the IPO phase also helps to release the substantial book profits accumulated by early investors and employees. The company's valuation has climbed rapidly over the past two years, reaching approximately $96.5 billion in its latest funding round in May of this year.

However, insider sales during the IPO process could send a negative signal to the market, as investors might interpret it as early shareholders looking to cash in on their gains upon the company's listing. Therefore, Anthropic is also considering stricter lock-up arrangements to mitigate post-IPO selling pressure.

The lock-up period may exceed 180 days.

According to The Information, Anthropic is considering imposing a lock-up period of more than 180 days on at least some shareholders.

A 180-day lock-up period is a common practice in traditional IPOs, primarily used to prevent insiders and early investors from selling shares in a concentrated manner after the company goes public, thus impacting the stock price.

If Anthropic allows some shareholders to sell their shares during the IPO phase while imposing a longer lock-up period on the remaining shares, the company can, to some extent, distribute the stock supply across different time periods, reducing the potential pressure of concentrated selling during the initial listing and lock-up period.

This is especially important for Anthropic. As one of the world's highest-valued AI startups, its IPO size and market attention are likely to far exceed those of ordinary tech companies. If a large number of early investors cash out after the IPO, it could significantly amplify stock price volatility.

The Information also reported that Anthropic was considering requiring employees to sell shares through pre-defined trading plans, rather than relying entirely on the trading window after earnings releases. This arrangement would also help the company manage insider stock trading more systematically after going public.

The prospectus may be released after Labor Day in the United States.

Regarding the IPO timeline, The Information stated that Anthropic plans to publicly disclose its prospectus after Labor Day in the United States and plans to hold an investor day in mid-September.

According to the current plan, the company may complete its IPO by the end of September or the beginning of October .

Shay Boloor of Futurum Equities also believes that Anthropic's IPO filing could be released as early as September, with a possible listing by the end of September. Data released Wednesday by Polymarket's official account shows that the market currently believes there is an 86% probability that Anthropic will complete its IPO before October.

If Anthropic proceeds according to this timeline, its prospectus will become the focus of market attention in the coming weeks. At that time, the company's specific revenue growth rate, profitability, computing power investment, equity structure, and IPO size will provide a more direct basis for the market to judge its final valuation.

Markets are betting on valuations exceeding one trillion dollars.

Anthropic's IPO is attracting significant attention because it could become one of the largest tech IPOs in history.

Yahoo Finance previously cited widespread market expectations that Anthropic's IPO valuation could reach around $1 trillion . The Information also previously reported that bankers involved in the IPO preparations had discussed a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, with some insiders even suggesting a valuation as high as $2 trillion.

This valuation expectation reflects the market's bet on Anthropic's future high revenue growth.

Reuters reported on August 15 that Anthropic's IPO valuation is partly dependent on its revenue forecast for 2028, which the company expects to reach between $190 billion and $200 billion . As of May this year, Anthropic's annualized revenue was approximately $47 billion.

If the above predictions are ultimately included in the prospectus, the capital market will need to determine whether Anthropic can maintain extremely high revenue growth over the next two years, and whether the huge investment in computing power can ultimately be converted into sufficient commercial returns.

Therefore, with the prospectus likely to be released after Labor Day, Anthropic's highly anticipated AI mega-IPO is gradually moving from private market valuation discussions to public capital market pricing.

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