Key events next week: US-Iran and Yemen situations affect oil prices; Fed minutes price interest rate hike expectations; Nobel Prize announcements.

Key events next week: US-Iran and Yemen situations affect oil prices; Fed minutes price interest rate hike expectations; Nobel Prize announcements.

A summary of major financial events for the week of October 5th-11th, all times are Beijing time:

The Financial Calendar reminds you of the key points to watch next week:

First, pay attention to monetary policy and the US Treasury auction. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting will be released on October 8th. Bloomberg predicts that "almost everyone" supports at least one more rate hike this year, and internal divisions and Warsh's proposal to reduce regular meeting rates are also closely watched. Meanwhile, $39 billion in 10-year and $22 billion in 30-year Treasury bonds will be auctioned in the same week, and the strength of demand will directly test the market's tolerance for high interest rates. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a keynote speech on Monday, and his wording will influence the direction of the yen and global carry trades.

Secondly, we should pay attention to geopolitical risks and energy competition. Trump warned that the situation in Iran was "not good," and the core US cabinet held intensive meetings; the conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia continues, and the G7 announced the release of strategic petroleum reserves to stabilize oil prices, making the energy market highly sensitive.

The AI industry chain is once again buzzing with activity. Next week's World AI Summit will bring together executives from giants like OpenAI and Nvidia; AMD's Lisa Su will visit South Korea to discuss the chip ecosystem; Intel announced price increases and launched new computing power futures products. The Nobel Prize announcements over five consecutive days may catalyze a thematic rally in the medical, physics, and chemistry sectors.

Economic indicators

  • China's foreign exchange reserves in September

China's foreign exchange reserves data for the end of September will be released on October 7th, with a balance of US$3.43833 trillion at the end of August. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 22nd consecutive month since August.

  • US September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

On October 5th, the US ISM released its September non-manufacturing index, with a previous reading of 55.4. According to a Wall Street Journal survey, the median economist forecast was for a decline to 55.0. Key indicators to watch are the new orders, employment, and price sub-indices.

Financial events

  • Continuing to monitor the US-Iran situation, Trump stated that progress on next steps regarding Iran is "going well."

According to a Xinhua News Agency report citing US media on October 2, US President Trump stated that the next steps regarding Iran were "progressing well" and that "the situation in Iran is not good." The report also stated that key cabinet members held a closed-door meeting that day to discuss the war with Iran and the next steps in the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

  • Reports: Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government forces plan a large-scale offensive against the Houthi rebels; the Houthis claim to have struck targets belonging to Saudi Aramco.

On October 2, local time, CCTV reporters learned that two US officials revealed that Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government forces are planning a large-scale offensive against the Houthi rebels in the coming days.

In addition, the Houthi rebels in Yemen issued a statement on the evening of the 3rd local time, saying that in response to Saudi airstrikes on Sana'a and other parts of Yemen, the Houthi rebels used multiple ballistic missiles and drones to strike targets of Saudi Aramco in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia.

  • The G7 has decided to release 100 million barrels of emergency oil reserves, with a large-scale release of diesel oil expected in the first 20 days.

On Friday, October 2, local time, the French presidential palace released a statement from the G7 leaders, stating that the G7 will coordinate the release of 100 million barrels of strategic oil reserves through the International Energy Agency (IEA). The action will begin "immediately" and last for four months. During this period, G7 member countries and partners will release diesel reserves on a large scale in the first 20 days.

  • The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.

On October 8, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September monetary policy meeting were released. Bloomberg expects "almost everyone" to believe there will be at least one more rate hike this year, and "a few" to favor two. The minutes are expected to update two issues—the progress of the balance sheet review and Chairman Warsh's proposal to reduce the annual FOMC meetings from eight to six times a year.

  • Federal Reserve officials, including Bowman and Logan, delivered speeches.

From October 6th to 10th, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman, Dallas Fed President Logan, St. Louis Fed President Mussaleem, and Boston Fed President Collins delivered speeches. Bowman favored no further rate hikes this year, diverging from Williams's view that "one more rate hike this year is reasonable."

  • Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivers a speech

According to reports, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has confirmed that he will attend the National Securities Conference on October 6 and deliver a keynote speech. This speech is attracting significant market attention and is expected to address topics such as current monetary policy, inflation trends, and the economic outlook.

  • World Summit AI

The 10th World Summit AI will be held in Amsterdam, Netherlands, from October 7th to 8th, 2026. Speakers include executives from giants such as OpenAI, Meta, Google, and Nvidia.

  • US 10-year and 30-year Treasury bond auctions

On October 7th, Eastern Time, the U.S. 10-year Treasury note auctioned, raising $39 billion. The bonds were 10-year Treasury notes maturing on August 15, 2036, with a coupon rate of 4.625% (4-5/8%). On October 8th, the U.S. 30-year Treasury note auctioned, raising $22 billion. The bonds were 30-year Treasury notes maturing on August 15, 2056, with a coupon rate of 5.125% (5-1/8%).

  • The 2026 Nobel Prizes in Physics, Chemistry, Literature, and other disciplines will be announced.

The 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine will be announced by the Karolinska Institute at 5:30 p.m. Beijing time on Monday, October 5.

The 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics will be announced by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences on Tuesday, October 6, at 5:45 p.m. Beijing time.

The 2026 Nobel Prize in Chemistry will be announced by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences on Wednesday, October 7, at 5:45 PM Beijing time.

The 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature will be announced on October 8 (Thursday) at 19:00 Beijing time.

The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday, October 9th at 17:00 Beijing time.

  • The SSE Photovoltaic Science and Technology Innovation Leading Index was officially launched.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Co., Ltd. will officially launch the SSE Photovoltaic Science and Technology Innovation Leading Index on October 9. According to the announcement of China Securities Index Co., Ltd., 40 science and technology innovation/main board securities in the photovoltaic field will be selected and the weight of the science and technology innovation board will be increased to provide new investment targets for the photovoltaic sector.

  • The CME Group will launch GPU computing power futures to track H100 and B200 leasing costs.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Silicon Data have confirmed the launch of computing power futures on October 5th. The two contracts, the Silicon Data H100 Leasing Index Futures and the Silicon Data B200 Leasing Index Futures, will track indices that measure the hourly rental cost of GPUs.

  • AMD's Lisa Su plans to visit South Korea and attend an industry conference in Seoul on October 8.

On September 30, Yonhap News Agency, citing industry sources, reported that AMD CEO Lisa Su is expected to visit South Korea next month to meet with executives from South Korean semiconductor companies and government officials. This will be her first visit to South Korea in approximately seven months, following her visit in March. Sources within the South Korean government and semiconductor industry stated that a meeting is being considered for October 8 in Seoul, which Su will attend. CEOs from major South Korean AI chip companies such as Rebellions, Furiosa AI, and Mobilint are expected to participate.

  • OpenAI establishes an AI Cyber Risk Task Force in Australia; Chief Strategy Officer travels to Sydney on October 6.

OpenAI established an AI Cyber Risk Working Group in Australia, and its Chief Strategy Officer visited Sydney on October 6th, marking a continuation of its overseas efforts in AI governance and regulatory collaboration. Following its expansion in Europe and the US, this move into the Asia-Pacific region reflects the proactive stance of this large-scale company on security and compliance, and highlights its potential demonstrative effect on Australia's AI regulatory framework.

Regarding the dynamics of large AI models, Step5 Preview is expected to be officially open-sourced on October 15th; Kimi K3.1, the Dark Side of the Moon, is expected to launch as early as October, supporting millions of token contexts and three levels of inference intensity. The highlight is the direct competition between domestic models in terms of long contexts and inference costs.

  • Brazil continues first round of presidential election voting

The first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election is scheduled for October 4th. If no candidate receives a majority of votes, a runoff election will be held on October 25th. Prior to the election, Lula's team accused the United States of election interference and filed for a judicial investigation. The market forecasts give Flavio approximately a 60% chance of winning. If he wins, the momentum for fiscal reforms will significantly increase. Wall Street investment banks are betting on a stronger real in options trading, aiming to capitalize on a potential post-election appreciation.

  • South Korea plans to launch the Nuri rocket.

According to Yonhap News Agency, South Korea plans to launch the Nuri carrier rocket on October 7.

Financial Reports and Company News

  • Intel's PC CPUs are expected to see another price increase of approximately 10% on October 5th.

Intel's PC CPUs are expected to see another price increase of approximately 10% on October 5, 2026. This would be Intel's third round of price hikes since the end of 2025—a roughly 10% increase in the first quarter of 2026, followed by another price increase in July for some consumer and server CPUs, with increases ranging from tens to over a thousand dollars.

  • Zhongji Xuchuang: The company will distribute a total of RMB 1.331 billion in cash dividends to its A-share shareholders in the first half of the year. The record date for the dividend distribution is October 9th.

Zhongji Xuchuang announced that it will implement its 2026 interim A-share equity distribution plan. Based on the total A-share capital of 1.11 billion shares after excluding shares repurchased into the special account, a cash dividend of RMB 12 per 10 shares (inclusive of tax) will be distributed to all shareholders, totaling RMB 1.331 billion (inclusive of tax). The record date is October 9, 2026, and the ex-rights and ex-dividend date is October 12, 2026.

  • Moderna will be included in the Nasdaq 100 index.

Moderna will become a component of the Nasdaq 100 index before the market opens on Friday, October 9, replacing Warner Bros. Discovery.

Major warning for the week after next

  • On October 14, Anthropic is expected to hold a Pre-IPO Investor Day with potential investors.
  • The Tesla Roadster event has been rescheduled to October 15th.
  • On October 13, Meta, Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic were invited to attend a UK Parliament hearing on AI security.
  • On October 12, the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics was announced.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerInvesting involves risk; please exercise caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.