Lin Yuan's latest speech: Investment can "change destiny," don't rely on volatility and speculation.

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Billionaire private equity tycoon Lin Yuan recently gave a speech at a well-known university.

With his trademark candid and incisive style, Lin Yuan thoroughly analyzed his ideas about deep investing in the pension/elderly sector, and discussed his investment philosophy in depth.

He noted that the key to investing is not short-term gains, but long-term perseverance and precise grasp of future trends.

Zishitang has compiled Lin Yuan's speech below (first-person perspective) for readers.

1. The goal of my investment is not to make a quick buck in the short term, but to change my destiny.

2. The most important thing in investing is to ensure that you operate within a reasonable investment framework, rather than relying on the market's short-term surges.

3. Many things in the market are changing; only by sticking firmly to your own direction can you discover core value.

4. Over the past hundred years, 70% of listed company profits have come from the consumer and pharmaceutical-related industries. These industries do not rely on continuous massive investments and their demand is relatively stable.

5. If an enterprise produces according to current market demand, it may eventually face oversupply. The exception is the elderly population, which will keep growing.

6. Many chronic diseases cannot be cured, but they can be delayed through symptomatic treatment. We have been investing in drugs for this area over the past ten years.

7. When investing in aging-related companies, besides paying attention to financial data and cash flow, we focus more on the industry background, patterns in disease treatment, and the size of market demand.

8. Long-term investment is inseparable from holding. If a company is not held for a long period, its intrinsic value cannot be truly understood.

9. We only invest in those projects whose results can be verified by real data, not relying on emotion, volatility, or speculation. Only steady investment can bring real wealth appreciation.

First, the industry should have no problems, then it’s about timing your entry

I often ask myself, the same things I did 20 years ago, I am still doing today. This in itself says something.

Those who truly understand can see at a glance — the market is full of change, but if you stick to your path, you will ultimately discover core value.

Years ago, I wrote a book listing what I considered to be truly money-making stocks at the time. Looking back twenty years later, those “chosen” stocks have multiplied several times in value.

Back then, I not only made industry judgments, but also listed specific stocks and their ratios one by one. For every portfolio allocation, I listed the details. The advice I gave was: if you have a certain amount of capital, how should you allocate it, and each stock’s purchase ratio is different.

My macro judgments have always been clear. My judgment about the industry itself was solid; the issue is when to time your entry.

Right now, I think the most meaningful investment direction is aging.

Everyone knows about this topic, but the key is: when do you enter? Timing is critical.

From studying medicine to investing

I studied science and engineering – originally a vocational school student. I started out learning welding but later switched to studying medicine.

Getting into vocational school was already a big deal for my family.

After graduating, I was assigned to Shenzhen as a doctor. Later, I transferred to Shenzhen Second People's Hospital. Although I've not practiced medicine since the 1980s, I've never lost interest in medicine – for decades, I've kept a close eye on medical advances.

If I go a few months without looking at new developments in medicine, I feel uneasy.

I always pay attention to medicine, especially research on conservative treatments. I’ve always believed that many chronic diseases can’t be cured, but can be delayed with symptomatic treatment and patients’ lives can be improved. If I hear a doctor talking nonsense, I can immediately spot it.

Started investing ten years ago

As an investor with a medical background, I have always focused on conservative and pharmaceutical treatments. For chronic diseases like hypertension and diabetes, while they cannot be cured, they can be controlled with medication, prolonging life.

My mother is already 89 years old this year, and just her monthly drug costs are 10,000 RMB. Medical insurance covers part, but it’s still not enough. At this age, new problems keep arising—fix one, side effects bring another. For people over 78, apart from drug treatment, there are almost no effective alternatives.

Based on these reflections, I started investing heavily in the aging society sector from 2015 and 2017.

Back then, the market environment was bad, and many people urged me to change my investment outlook, but I didn't listen. For more than ten years, I have focused on this area.

Focusing on the 78+ senior population

Why is the elderly population so important? Because it is directly connected to changes in the economic structure.

Recently, many business owners have felt it’s hard to operate, for many reasons.

We studied the population structure of China and the U.S. — the 60s and 70s were baby booms, and this generation is entering old age, so the elderly population will significantly increase. Especially those over 78 — their needs will surge.

I mainly focus on the 78+ age group because, according to China’s population structure and medical conditions, once you turn 78, your body has already changed greatly and you basically rely on medication. For diseases at this age, traditional surgery is no longer suitable.

For example, diabetes — insulin can only control but not cure it. After 78, it's basically all about symptomatic treatment. Blood pressure is key — controlling blood pressure is top priority.

Chronic disease leads to kidney problems. Diabetes itself is not directly fatal but ultimately comes down to issues with the cardiovascular system. After 78, doctors are very wary of doing surgery. Once blood vessels age, a lot of damage is irreversible and only drugs can manage microcirculation.

So, at this stage, drugs are a rigid demand. By then, it’s not a matter of wanting to spend money, but a necessity.

Another example: my mother is 89, living alone, and her expenses are more than our entire family combined. Two caregivers and medicine comprise a significant chunk; monthly meds alone are 10,000 RMB. Insurance covers part, but far from enough.

Three months ago, while dining with friends in Shanghai, I mentioned my mother’s medication. Three people immediately pulled out identical drugs from their pockets, saying they take the same when unwell. This further confirmed my investment direction.

Currently, the population over 78 is over 30 million; in 25 years, this number may double. Aging-related drugs currently show no significant side effects and future demand will be huge, especially in treating hypertension, diabetes, heart and kidney diseases. Treatments are becoming clearer.

Pharmaceutical investing must be rational

As for AI’s impact on life sciences, though AI can improve drug R&D efficiency, cures for cancer and diabetes are still distant goals.

Cancer treatments may have breakthroughs in the future, but currently most approaches merely extend life, not totally cure.

For me, the key to investing is a company's sustainable profitability, not short-term market volatility. My focus has always been on pharmaceuticals, especially treatments for cardiovascular, diabetes, and kidney diseases. These companies’ performance is stable, and compound growth rates stay above 30%.

When investing in aging-related companies, aside from financials and cash flow, we care more about industry background, patterns of disease treatment, and market size.

For example, in kidney disease-related firms, we find huge market demand and annual compound growth over 30%, which gives us much confidence.

We also consult doctors about treatment practices. Doctors are professional but often don't understand investment logic, so we combine market info and our own analysis for rational investment decisions.

Finding real investment opportunities in the market

I always stick to one principle when investing: only invest in projects where results can be verified.

In the market, many founders don’t even know what results they can achieve. (But I wouldn’t.) If I don’t understand a field’s core, I won’t enter lightly.

This is our investing core: only do investments where real data can verify results, not relying on emotions, volatility, or speculation. Only steady investment brings real wealth growth.

The goal of investment is to change fate

My goal in investing is not to make quick money, but to change my fate.

To me, changing your destiny’s threshold is actually making 10,000x returns from investing in a company. For us, investment isn’t a rush—the time will be on our side.

The future isn’t just about the aging issue. Robotics, AI, and other technologies are accelerating, but what will bring real returns is not capital-driven tech, but innovation and human wisdom.

In the last hundred years, 70% of listed companies’ profits have come from consumer and pharmaceutical industries—both of which don’t rely on massive continuous investment, and have stable demand.

The key is long-term holding

I firmly believe, the most crucial thing in investing is long-term holding.

Investment is a long process; time will be on your side. Many look at short-term volatility but can’t hold out. True success in investing takes patience and endurance for the best returns.

Companies you invest in must have stable profitability, not just short-term volatility. I’ve experienced share price fluctuations, but in retrospect, the companies that provide real returns are those with enduring profitability.

From my years of investing experience, long-term investing and holding go hand in hand. If a company isn’t held long-term, you cannot truly understand its value.

We assess companies not at their highs or lows, but based on long-term potential. For companies with already strong performance, no need to worry about short-term ups and downs—they will keep growing over time.

For individual investors, they may buy at highs, but if the company has substantial value, short-term volatility won’t affect long-term gains.

The most important thing is to operate within a reasonable investment framework, not rely on market short-term swings.

Avoid speculation

Speculation in the market often relies on strong fundamentals.

Institutionalization in Europe and America is much higher than in China. We shouldn't blindly follow the crowd—what’s truly worth investing in is companies with actual profitability.

I once had the chance to invest in Tencent. At the time, its share price was very low; I sat with some fund managers and we all thought it wasn’t promising.

Looking back now, Tencent is one of the world’s highest market cap companies. Through such experiences, I learned a lot—especially to focus on a company's long-term potential, not short-term volatility.

Comparing these companies, I prefer those with long-term profitability, not blind speculation.

You may think you’re right, but if you’re mistaken, investment failure is inevitable. So why don't we invest in such things? I don't because I simply don’t understand—the founders themselves don’t know what they can do.

That’s our working principle: we only invest in projects with results we can verify. I only understand core results; I don’t claim to know everything. To solve this, I conduct a comprehensive evaluation.

Of course, all other problems are issues of human nature.

Risk warning and disclaimerThe market has risks; investment should be approached cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it consider the specific investment goals, financial status, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their particular circumstances. Any investment decisions made accordingly are at your own risk.

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