Longer than expected, this round of "old storage" price increases will last until 2026.

Longer than expected, this round of "old storage" price increases will last until 2026.

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Legacy storage chips usher in a “second spring”, the boom period exceeds expectations.

According to Hard AI, Morgan Stanley stated in its latest research report released on October 6, 2025, that the boom period for legacy memory chips is not only stronger than market expectations but may last longer, until 2026. Tighter supply of mainstream memory chips is impacting legacy products, leading to unexpected price increases for chips such as DDR4, DDR3, and NOR Flash.

 This trend has brought significant investment opportunities for certain semiconductor companies. While mainstream chips progress rapidly, the legacy memory chip market is opening a profit window worth watching.

Mainstream market supply is tight, clear signals for price increases

The report first points out the tense situation in the mainstream memory market, which is the key background for understanding the legacy chip boom.

  • In terms of DRAM: Mainstream DRAM suppliers have stopped providing quotes for the fourth quarter to enterprise customers. In the industry, this is usually a strong signal of imminent supply shortages and sharp price increases.
  • In terms of NAND: Industry giant SanDisk has begun contacting PSMC to discuss potential capacity support in the future. Although, due to SanDisk’s joint venture with Kioxia and technical differences, the possibility of cooperation is low, this move itself confirms the industry-wide NAND supply shortage.

Legacy DRAM prices soar, increase may exceed expectations

The effect of shortages in the mainstream market is quickly transferring to the legacy DDR4 and DDR3 market, where price increases may even exceed those of mainstream products.

  • Significant DDR4 supply gap: The report predicts that there will continue to be a 10-15% supply gap for DDR4 in the next three quarters, and limited back-end packaging capacity could make things worse. As a result, contract prices for some DDR4 specs may more than double in the fourth quarter.
  • Shortened validity of quotes: The validity period of DDR4 quotes has now shortened to less than one month, meaning contract prices could be adjusted upward within weeks.
  • DDR3 catching up: DDR3 prices are also rising strongly, expected to achieve “high double-digit” growth by the fourth quarter.

NOR Flash price increases are more sustainable, demand outlook broad

Compared to DRAM, the price increase trend for legacy Flash chips appears more sustainable, mainly thanks to emerging demand drivers.

  • NOR Flash prices steadily rising: The report maintains its view of a 5-10% price increase for NOR Flash in the fourth quarter.
  • Demand-driven supply gap widening: Growing demand from IoT and server sectors is expected to widen the NOR Flash supply gap from “low single digits” to “mid single digits”.
  • AirPods as a key growth point: The report specifically notes that since each AirPods device requires three high-density NOR Flash chips, by 2026 AirPods alone could account for 5-10% of global NOR Flash demand. This suggests NOR Flash price increases may continue through 2026.

 

This article comes from WeChat Public Account “Hard AI”. For more cutting-edge AI news, click here

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