Looking at SpaceX's "third derivative" to understand the real "money printer" in commercial spaceflight
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In 2026, the global commercial space industry reaches a historic turning point. SpaceX secretly submitted its IPO application in April and plans to list on NASDAQ in June, establishing a valuation anchor for the entire sector and triggering a revaluation of industry chain companies.
Guolian Minsheng Securities report points out that this is not a theme speculation, but a fundamental infrastructure revolution underway. Rocket launch costs have dropped from over $50,000/kg in the shuttle era to several thousand dollars/kg; Falcon 9 booster reuse record reaches 32 times. The steep decline in this cost curve is highly similar to the 19th-century railroad trajectory, from the carriage era to freight prices dropping below 1 cent/ton-mile—no one then predicted railroads would create a national market, just as many today are still skeptical about "where the demand for space economy lies."
The market often focuses on rocket launches, the most visually impactful segment, while ignoring the true value core. In 2024, the global commercial space launch business market size is only $8.2 billion, accounting for 2.46%; whereas satellite service market size reaches $176.7 billion, accounting for 52.91%—a gap over 21 times. Rockets are just the keys to open this goldmine.
SpaceX's "three-stage" business model clearly reveals the value distribution: Launch is the foundation, satellite services are the "cash cow" and "profit pool," and space computing power is the long-term "option." For investment, it is recommended to prioritize the "SpaceX cooperation + high upper limit in service segment" combination.
Historical Comparison: Commercial Space is the "Railroad" of the Deep Space Economy Era
The history of railroads shows transportation technology does not simply respond to existing demand but proactively creates new economic structures and demands by lowering accessibility costs. Counterfactual models estimate that without railroads, land value in the US agricultural sector would decline by over 50%. From 1865 to 1885, railroad freight volume grew about eightfold. By the late 19th century, price fluctuation differences for bulk goods across regions narrowed by 40% to 70%, forming a unified national market.
Mapping to today: Low-Earth orbit launch costs have dropped from over $50,000/kg in the shuttle era to the range of several thousand dollars/kg. When unit costs fall by orders of magnitude, space activities shift from "one-off engineering tasks" to "repeatedly callable transport capacity"—this is the critical point of infrastructure significance.
The current commercial space sector is in the early stage of "transportation conditions first, demand released later." Its economic impact should not be measured by the size of current applications but understood in reference to the amplifying effect railroads had on economic structure after commercialization.
Cost Revolution: Reusable Rockets are the "Final Push" to Break the Critical Point
Traditional expendable rockets have highly rigid cost structures: about 80% of costs come from the one-time consumption of the rocket body and engine, leaving very limited marginal room for further cost reduction. SpaceX fundamentally reconstructed the rocket economic model through reusable technology—shifting the cost focus from "manufacturing expense" to "refurbishment and operational expense," using frequency to reduce cost.
On the data side, this logic is clearly validated:
- When reuse exceeds 10 times, the average cost per launch can stabilize at around $17 million; as launches continue, per-launch costs can fall about 70%
- By January 2026, Falcon 9 first stage boosters reached a maximum reuse of 32 times, with per-booster costs diluted to about $940,000, and average cost reduced to about $16.1 million, a drop of ~68% from brand new.
- Falcon 9 launch price per mission is about $70 million, marginal operating cost about $15 million, gross profit per launch about $55 million, gross margin nearly 79%
Looking ahead, Starship adopts a fully reusable design. Elon Musk has clearly stated that foreseeable future costs for entering space will drop to 1% of the current level, or below $100 per pound—at that time, space transport costs will be lower than traditional ground air cargo costs for the first time.
Industry Map: Satellite Services are the "Crown" of the Value Chain
The report, based on the latest GMI data, comprehensively dissects the global commercial space industry chain:
- Satellite Services: Market size of $176.7 billion in 2024, 52.91% share, the absolute core of the industry chain
- Ground Equipment: $117.2 billion, 35.10%, second largest segment
- Satellite Manufacturing: $19 billion, 5.69%
- Launch Business: $8.2 billion, only 2.46%
- Emerging Business: $6.615 billion, 1.98%
The global space economy in 2024 totals $418 billion, of which commercial space accounts for 79.9%, that is, $333.982 billion. GMI expects the global space economy to have a compound annual growth rate of 6.7% from 2025 to 2034, reaching a market size of $788.7 billion in 2034.
Within satellite services, the space communications market in 2024 is $135.3 billion, remote sensing satellites $41.4 billion. Remote sensing satellites are expected to expand at a 13.4% CAGR and reach $142.1 billion by 2034. While launch business is small in scale, its growth is noteworthy, with an expected CAGR of 14.6% to $31.9 billion by 2032.
SpaceX Three-Stage Derivative: From "Transporter" to "Computing Infrastructure Builder"
Stage 1: Launch Business — Cash Flow Foundation
Falcon 9 is SpaceX's current high-frequency backbone platform. In 2025, it is expected to complete 165 launches, 122 for internal Starlink, 43 for external commercial/government customers, generating about $3 billion revenue and contributing about $2.4 billion in launch business gross profit.
In 2026, Falcon 9 is expected to reach about 180 launches, with per-mission price rising to about $74 million, gross margin of 80%, enabling $3.5 billion revenue and $2.8 billion gross profit for the year. Crew Dragon human spaceflight business is also impressive: in 2025, 4 crewed flights yielding about $1.014 billion revenue and $734 million gross profit, with average margin exceeding 72%.
Starship is the future engine for launch business. When mature operations begin, it is expected to contribute about $20 billion annual revenue and $18 billion annual gross profit, with per-launch gross margin of around 90%.
Stage 2: Satellite Services — The Real "Money Printer"
Starlink is SpaceX's most financially important business. In 2024, "Starlink + Starshield" combined revenue was $8.19 billion, up 96% year-on-year, accounting for about 62% of total SpaceX revenue.
As of December 2025, Starlink has over 9,000 active satellites in orbit, serving more than 155 countries and regions, connecting over 9 million customers, with more than 4.6 million new active users added in 2025 alone.
Looking at the revenue structure, in 2024 Starlink terminal sales totaled about 3.9 million units, achieving hardware revenue of about $1.74 billion. Residential package subscribers (C-side) numbered about 3.475 million, with average monthly revenue per user around $85; maritime package (B-side) per-user monthly revenue hit $780, commercial fixed site package $500, both several times that of residential users.
The core drivers of growth include: in January 2026, FCC approved deployment of 7,500 Starlink Gen2 satellites, supporting "direct-to-mobile" service, allowing users to connect ordinary phones to satellites without special terminals, aiming for symmetrical gigabit speeds.
Stage 3: Space Computing Power — Option-like Imagination Space
The explosion in demand for AI computing power provides the foundation for space computing. The report forecasts that by 2030, global AI computing will grow 500x to over 105 ZFLOPS. Traditional ground data centers face triple constraints: power, cooling, land. Super-large data centers can require up to 100MW power, cooling consumes more than 30% of total energy, land area can reach several hundred hectares.
SpaceX’s space computing strategy advances on both software and hardware. On the software side, they integrated computing resources by acquiring xAI; Colossus 2 began operation in January 2026, reaching GW-level computing, becoming the world's first integrated AI training cluster to hit this threshold, currently training 7 AI models simultaneously. On the hardware side, they advance the "million satellite plan" and, together with Tesla, promote the Terafab super-chip factory, aiming to produce and deploy 1TW of AI compute power annually. Musk expects the super factory’s first phase to reach 100GW by 2028, second phase ramping to 1TW by 2032.
Looking to 2026, with SpaceX's IPO coming to fruition, the valuation anchor for global commercial space is expected to be formally established, and industry chain companies will undergo revaluation. Two dimensions are recommended for investment: First, industry characteristics—hardware suppliers (rocket launch) and service providers (satellite services); second, competitive landscape—SpaceX industry chain and differentiated advantage companies. Combined, companies with "SpaceX cooperation + high upper limit in service segment" stand to benefit the most.
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