Lowest since 1969! U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 187,000 last week, far exceeding expectations.

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The U.S. labor market is showing unexpected resilience. Latest data indicates that initial jobless claims dropped sharply last week, businesses remain reluctant to lay off workers, and the employment market as a whole remains stable.

According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, for the week ending July 18, initial jobless claims dropped by 22,000 to 187,000, significantly below the Bloomberg economists’ median forecast of 210,000. This figure marks the lowest level since 1969.

After the data was released, the market’s assessment of labor market resilience was further reinforced. Meanwhile, the number of people continuously receiving unemployment benefits (an indicator measuring ongoing unemployment conditions) fell back to 1.796 million, dropping below 1.8 million again.

Initial Claims Far Exceed Expectations, Hitting Half-Century Low

According to the Department of Labor’s unadjusted raw data, last week initial jobless claims fell by 53,718 to 192,296. By state, New York saw the largest drop, decreasing by 16,954; Michigan and California also posted significant declines.

The median prior economist forecast was 210,000; the actual data was 23,000 lower than expected—a significant deviation, showing the current labor market is performing better than generally anticipated.

"Low Hiring, No Layoffs" Trend Continues

The current data matches the previously observed pattern of "low hiring, no layoffs"—on the one hand, companies slow down new hiring, but they are also unwilling to easily lay off current employees. The extremely low level of initial jobless claims proves that, overall, businesses still prefer to retain their existing workforce.

However, the employment market is not without concerns. Last month’s nonfarm payroll report showed a considerable number of Americans exited the labor force, a trend that may partly explain the lower jobless claims—it means that some people who could have filed for unemployment are no longer included in the statistics.

Continued Claims Also Decline, No Market Stress Signals

The number of continued unemployment benefit recipients further declined from about 1.8 million to 1.796 million, again dropping below the 1.8 million threshold. This indicator is usually regarded as supplementary when judging actual labor market pressures, and its downward trend corroborates with the initial claims data, both showing no obvious signs of job market stress.

Judging from both indicators, current data does not yet support the view that the labor market is deteriorating, and concerns about AI’s impact on employment are not reflected in these figures.

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