Macquarie warns: If the Iran conflict continues until June, oil prices may soar to $200.

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Macquarie’s latest warning: If the US-Iran conflict continues until the end of the second quarter this year and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, international oil prices may break through $200 a barrel, setting a historic record.

On March 27, Macquarie analysts Vikas Dwivedi and others noted in their latest report that there is about a 40% probability that the conflict will drag on until June; if this happens, oil prices will reach "historically high real price levels". In the remaining 60% probability scenario, the conflict may end by the end of this month.

A near-complete blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has caused the global energy supply situation to tighten sharply. Macquarie analysts said, the blockade of the strait "has already led to a sharp surge in crude oil and refined oil prices," with such a large impact that it will leave a mark in history.

Brent crude oil’s gains in March have already set a record for the largest monthly increase, and earlier this month hit a crisis high of $119.50. If Macquarie’s stress scenario comes true, the target price of $200 would mean oil prices would nearly double from current levels and significantly surpass the 2008 peak.

Two Scenarios: Probability Distribution Determines Market Direction

Macquarie’s report clearly defines two paths.

According to the report, the base case scenario (60% probability) expects the conflict to end before the end of March, with the oil price shock subsequently easing; the stress scenario (40% probability) assumes hostilities continue through the second quarter and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, in which case oil prices will be forced to rise to a level that would massively destroy global oil demand.

"If the strait stays closed for a long time, prices will need to rise to a point that destroys a substantial amount of global oil demand in history," Macquarie analysts wrote in the report.

The core logic here is the demand destruction mechanism—when the supply gap is large enough and lasts long enough, the market can only rely on surging prices to forcefully suppress demand in order to rebalance supply and demand.

Hormuz Blockade: Global Energy Artery Severely Hit

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil transport routes.

Macquarie data shows that before the conflict erupted, about 15 million barrels of crude oil and 5 million barrels of refined products passed through the strait daily. The near-total blockade led by Iran has dealt a severe blow to the global energy supply chains that depend on this passage.

Macquarie pointed out that the timing of the strait’s reopening, as well as the actual physical damage inflicted on energy infrastructure, are the core variables that will determine the long-term impact of this conflict on commodity markets.

According to a Wallstreetcn.com article, US President Trump on Thursday again postponed the final deadline for striking Iranian energy facilities by another 10 days, pushing the potential attack timeline to April 6. This is the second time Trump has suspended the threat.

Meanwhile, Iran has allowed ten oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which Trump characterized as a "gesture of goodwill" from Iran. However, this limited opening has not fundamentally changed the overall blockade of the strait.

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