Mandeb Strait loses 34% of shipping volume: When Saudi Arabia's "Plan B" Yanbu Port also becomes a target

Saudi Arabia’s “Plan B” to bypass the Strait of Hormuz is facing new challenges. According to Xinhua News Agency, the international market service provider Kpler posted on social media on the 22nd that both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait saw a decline in shipping volume on the 21st, reflecting heightened risk aversion among international shipping companies amid continuing regional security tensions. Data shows that on the 21st, the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell by 31% compared to the previous day, dropping to 9 ships; the number crossing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait fell by 34%, down to 29 ships. According to reports, on Monday the Houthi armed group issued warnings by radio broadcast and written letters to all ships that had docked at Saudi ports, forbidding them from passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, or risk being targeted “at any location within the operational range of the Yemeni armed forces.” In less than 72 hours, the threat quickly impacted the shipping market—at least 4 oil tankers fully loaded with Saudi crude urgently changed course in the Red Sea on Tuesday, as the shipping industry proactively began to avoid risks. This means that, with transit capacity through the Strait of Hormuz sharply reduced, Yanbu Port, which is responsible for Saudi Arabia’s westbound crude exports, is now exposed to new security risks. The market is concerned that the global energy supply chain is shifting from the risk of a single strait to a new situation where both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are under pressure. Houthi warnings spread quickly, at least four oil tankers rerouted On Monday, the Houthi armed group launched two actions simultaneously. On one hand, they broadcast warnings via radio to ships sailing in the Red Sea, cautioning vessels that had docked at Saudi ports against passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden; on the other hand, they sent written notifications to shipping companies serving Saudi Red Sea ports, stating that relevant ships may become targets. Market reactions were faster than expected. According to the Financial Times, at least 4 oil tankers fully loaded with Saudi crude changed course in the Red Sea on Tuesday, three of which had just loaded at Yanbu Port. This number is an increase from the previously reported two ships, showing that shipping companies are rapidly adjusting routes to avoid risks. Meanwhile, shipping activities in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have noticeably decreased. Data shows the volume of cargo loaded in the strait over the past two weeks has fallen by 34%. Yanbu Port under pressure, Saudi export “safety valve” faces challenges With continued obstacles in the Strait of Hormuz, the importance of Yanbu Port is rising. Since April, Saudi Arabia has utilized the east-west pipeline to transport crude oil from eastern production areas to the Red Sea coast for export from Yanbu Port, with current daily exports at about 4.9 million barrels. With the average daily vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropping from around 110 ships pre-war to about 12 ships, Yanbu Port has effectively become the core export hub for Saudi Arabia to maintain global crude supply. Kpler data shows Yanbu Port currently handles most of Saudi Arabia’s alternative export capacity. Reports point out that the Houthis including ships that have docked at Saudi ports as potential targets means there is a risk that this key Saudi crude export route could be cut off. Facing escalating threats, some tankers have begun shutting off their AIS ship automatic identification systems to reduce the risk of being tracked. Maritime intelligence company Windward analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann stated that Iran and the Houthis are forming a “pincer attack” targeting global energy transportation. The Strait of Hormuz is already severely restricted, and the alternative export route that Saudi Arabia relies on is now facing pressure from the Bab el-Mandeb direction, making the refined oil market particularly vulnerable to disruption. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market involves risks, and investments require caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the individual investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific user. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate to their particular circumstances. Investing based on this information is at your own risk.