Manufacturing remains strong, Vietnam's GDP grew by 8.23% year-on-year in the third quarter.
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Vietnam’s economic growth accelerated in the third quarter to its fastest pace in three years, as strong manufacturing and business activity helped the country’s economy effectively cushion the initial shock brought on by new tariff measures.
According to data released by the General Statistics Office of Vietnam on Monday, the country’s GDP grew by 8.23% year-on-year from July to September this year, significantly higher than the median estimate of 7.15% from surveyed analysts. Meanwhile, the second quarter GDP growth figure was revised upward from 7.96% to 8.19%.
Strong performance in manufacturing was the core driving force behind this economic expansion. At the press conference, General Statistics Office Lead Nguyen Thi Huong stated that manufacturing activity continued to grow as businesses ramped up production ahead of the final US tariff deadline. Following the data release, Vietnam's VN benchmark index surged as much as 2.6% on Monday morning, marking the largest single-day gain since August 26.
Despite the strong quarterly performance, officials remain cautious about the full-year target. Nguyen Thi Huong warned that under the current global environment, achieving the government’s annual growth target of 8.3%–8.5% would be “extremely challenging.”
Resilience in Manufacturing and Exports
According to the statistics bureau, in the first nine months of 2025, Vietnam’s manufacturing output grew by 9.92% year-on-year. In September, Vietnam’s exports to the United States grew by a substantial 38.5% year-on-year, reaching $13.7 billion.
Apple CEO Tim Cook stated in May that Vietnam would produce “nearly all” iPads, MacBooks, Watches, and AirPods for its US market. Samsung Electronics also has major manufacturing bases in the country, making smartphones and other electronic products.
Pham Vu Thang Long, Chief Economist at Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corporation, stated:
“This quarter’s growth rate is quite positive, reflecting Vietnam’s better-than-expected export resilience and stronger-than-expected industrial output. However, we still need to closely monitor the construction and services sectors, which have seen slower growth compared to the second quarter.”
Tariff Challenges and Policy Responses
According to a Xinhua News Agency report, US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, stating that all Vietnamese exports to the US would face at least a 20% tariff and that the US market would be “completely open.”
In response to external pressures, the Vietnamese government is actively taking measures to mitigate the impact of tariffs. According to a decree issued in September, the government will provide financial incentives to businesses in sectors ranging from electronics to textiles, especially targeting small businesses to increase supply chain localization. Specific measures include up to 70% financial support for quality and productivity improvements, and up to 50% subsidies for spending on R&D, consulting, new equipment purchases, and training services.
Loose Monetary Policy and Growth Prospects
The State Bank of Vietnam reaffirmed last Friday that it will continue efforts to stimulate lending and growth, support key industries, while also avoiding credit risks and controlling inflation. As of September 29, total bank lending had increased by 13.37% compared to the end of 2024. Regulators expect credit growth will accelerate to 19%–20% by year-end.
Inflation levels have provided space for loose monetary policy. In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.38% year-on-year, below the government’s annual target range of 4.5%–5%. Pham Vu Thang Long commented:
“As long as the inflation rate remains below 3.5%, the central bank can continue to implement loose monetary policy to stimulate economic growth before the end of the year.”
Other key data released Monday shows:
GDP grew by 7.85% year-on-year in the first nine months.Exports in September increased by 24.7% year-on-year; imports grew by 24.9% year-on-year.In the first nine months, committed foreign direct investment (FDI) increased by 15.2% year-on-year; realized FDI grew by 8.5%.
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