Market is watching the U.S.-Middle East situation; most European stocks opened lower; Netflix fell 10% pre-market; the dollar fluctuated at a low level; Brent crude oil dropped 0.4%.

Market is watching the U.S.-Middle East situation; most European stocks opened lower; Netflix fell 10% pre-market; the dollar fluctuated at a low level; Brent crude oil dropped 0.4%.

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The strong rebound in global stock markets over the past three weeks has paused. With uncertainty still lingering over whether the ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US will continue, investors are proactively trimming their positions before the weekend, while the S&P 500 sits at a historic juncture after achieving more than 3% weekly gains for three consecutive weeks.

On Friday, S&P 500 index futures were flat, after the index had hit new record highs for two days in a row. As both the US and Iran continue to signal de-escalation, the enormous pressure previously faced by the energy market has eased. Coupled with optimistic expectations in the AI sector and strong corporate earnings, the momentum of this rebound has been particularly strong.

According to CCTV News, Trump publicly stated on the 16th that the US has obtained a "very weighty" statement ensuring that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons, effective for more than 20 years. He also said "Iran has agreed to nearly all demands," and the prospects for an agreement "look very optimistic." Brent crude oil subsequently fell by 0.4%, trading at around $99 per barrel. The dollar stayed near its February low, and the 10-year US Treasury yield was flat at 4.31%.

EFG Asset Management Deputy CIO Daniel Murray said: "As the dust seemingly settles in the Middle East, the market's focus will return to fundamentals, especially the just-started earnings season. Earnings expectations remain quite optimistic, consistent with solid macroeconomic trends."

S&P 500 index futures are flat; Nasdaq 100 futures show little change. Netflix shares fell nearly 10% pre-market in the US; while Q1 results exceeded expectations, guidance was weak, and the chairman will step down.Most European stocks opened lower: Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.19%, UK FTSE 100 down 0.04%, France CAC40 up 0.06%, Germany DAX down 0.06%.The dollar remains near its February low, while the yen drops 0.1% to the 159.37 level.10-year US Treasury yield is flat at 4.31%.Brent crude oil falls 0.4% to about $99 per barrel.Gold prices are flat, at $4,781 per ounce.Spot silver is up more than 1% intra-day, now at $79.20 per ounce.Bitcoin falls 0.4% to $74,969.26.

Market Proactively Slows Down After Record Rebound

This round of global stock market rebounds has been rare in recent years. The S&P 500 is approaching a milestone of over 3% gains for three consecutive weeks, a rally triggered by clear signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran.

However, as Friday arrived, multiple markets entered a wait-and-see mode. European stocks moved sideways, while Asian indexes ended their three-day winning streak. Investors decided to step back before the weekend, waiting for further clarity on US-Iran relations.

French engineering manufacturer Alstom SA became a drag on European markets—after the company withdrew its financial guidance for the current fiscal year, its share price marked its biggest one-day decline in more than two years.

Trump Reports Iranian Concessions, Oil Prices Hover Around $100

Oil price trends remain one of the core market barometers. Brent crude softened after Trump's comments on Iran talks, now trading at around $99 per barrel, but still hovering near the $100 mark.

Garfield Reynolds, head of Bloomberg MLIV Asia team, issued a warning. He noted that although the US-Iran conflict has obviously cooled, signs of restored supply flow through the Strait of Hormuz remain very limited. "This means the potential for crude oil futures to return above $100, and for stock markets to pull back from this week's highs, remains considerable."

Gold prices are flat, at $4,781 per ounce.

Earnings Season Begins, Fundamentals Return to Center Stage

As geopolitical premiums gradually fade, the market focus is shifting toward corporate fundamentals. The current earnings season has just begun, and the direction of earnings data will be a decisive variable for markets in the coming weeks.

Daniel Murray noted that earnings expectations remain high, in line with the broadly robust underlying macro trends. Furthermore, optimism surrounding artificial intelligence continues to prop up the tech sector, serving as a key impetus behind this rebound.

For investors, the core question at this stage is: if Middle East risk premiums continue to fade, can earnings data take up the baton to support stock valuations already at historic highs?

Risk Warning & DisclaimerThe market carries risk; investing requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice nor does it take into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their specific circumstances. Investments are at your own risk. ```