Market speculation that the U.S. Treasury has taken action! CME Group President: If the U.S. intervenes in crude oil futures, it could lead to "catastrophic consequences."

Market speculation that the U.S. Treasury has taken action! CME Group President: If the U.S. intervenes in crude oil futures, it could lead to "catastrophic consequences."

As the US-Iran conflict continues to drive up oil prices, speculation about whether the US government has quietly intervened in the crude oil futures market is spreading among energy traders, prompting a warning from the head of the world’s largest derivatives exchange.

Terry Duffy, CEO of CME Group, stated outright at an industry conference this week that if the Trump administration tries to suppress oil prices by intervening in the futures market, it will face a "biblical disaster."

He warned that US government intervention in commodity pricing would severely erode market confidence. He emphasized, once investors begin to doubt the fairness of market pricing in critical commodities, the consequences will be unimaginable.

CME Group operates the core US crude oil futures exchange, and its leader issuing a direct warning about potential government intervention is rare in the industry, reflecting the current high alert in the market regarding policy uncertainty.

According to reports citing people familiar with US Treasury Secretary Besant, the US Treasury has not intervened in the crude oil market. Last week, Wallstreetcn mentioned that the US Treasury is evaluating various options to lower oil prices, including direct intervention in the futures market.

This Monday, after Brent crude oil prices surged to nearly $120/barrel and then quickly reversed to above $80, the unusual movements sparked widespread speculation among energy traders as to whether the US Treasury had quietly stepped into the market.

(US crude plummeted over 31% from the daily high on Monday)

Unusual large trades spark speculation; consulting firms cannot fully rule out Treasury intervention

This week, the oil market saw several large, unidentified trades, prompting energy traders and consulting firms to scramble to identify the buyers or sellers behind them.

Tim Skirrow, head of derivatives at Energy Aspects, said the firm has received continuous client inquiries this week, with clients questioning whether the US government was behind the series of unusual large trades. Skirrow said:

Our clients keep asking who the big seller is, and market speculation is that the seller may be the US Treasury.

He also pointed out that the US government has previously intervened in markets such as forex, making these speculations not entirely unfounded.

Rapidan Energy Group, founded by former White House energy adviser Bob McNally, said in a client report that the idea of the US Treasury selling near-month crude oil futures contracts is "gaining unusual attention."

The firm noted that such a move would be "unprecedented," but "given the current panic, this possibility cannot be fully ruled out."

Confusion triggered by Energy Minister’s post; US officials’ actions further unsettle the market

Aside from rumors of Treasury intervention, other actions by government officials this week have also puzzled oil market investors.

According to CCTV News, US Energy Minister Chris Wright posted on social media Tuesday, saying the US Navy escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. The news caught the market off guard and oil prices dropped sharply. However, the post was deleted within minutes, and the White House later denied that the Navy had escorted a vessel through this key waterway.

John Evans, an analyst at London PVM Oil Brokerage, wrote in a report Thursday that it is unclear whether Wright's post was "another complete mistake or something more serious: deliberate manipulation."

Wallstreetcn mentioned that Energy Minister Wright said Thursday that the US military is "not ready" to provide escorts before the end of this month.

The confluence of these events means oil market participants must now manage dual uncertainties—the geopolitical situation and policy signals—when assessing supply outlook, making it difficult for market volatility to subside in the short term.

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