Markets await PCE data; US stock futures rise; 10-year US Treasury yield declines slightly; Brent crude falls 1%; gold rises above $4200.

After the initial sell-off, global stocks and bonds have temporarily stabilized, with market focus now on the upcoming US PCE inflation data.

On Wednesday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.9%, on track for its biggest one-day gain in three weeks. US stock futures rose, with Dow futures up 0.5%, and European stocks opened higher. The 10-year US Treasury yield declined, Brent crude fell 1%, and spot gold rose 0.44% on the day, climbing above $4,200.

Oil prices and the US-Iran situation remain major uncertainties in the market. Rising energy costs could push up inflation and strengthen market expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, driving global bond yields to multi-year highs. Meanwhile, next month's corporate earnings reports will be crucial in determining whether the high valuations of US stocks are supported by profits.

Arjun Vij, a fund manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, said: "The bond sell-off could stop for one of the following reasons: a swift resolution of the Middle East conflict, a sharp decline in U.S. stocks driven by slowing hard economic data, or declining earnings and slower earnings guidance."

The core market trends are as follows:

S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2%.The Euro Stoxx 50 index opened 0.23% higher, the German DAX index rose 0.43%, the UK FTSE 100 index gained 0.39%, and the French CAC 40 index climbed 0.04%.The Nikkei 225 index closed up 1.9% at 66,753.72 points. The Topix index closed up 1.7% at 4,108.65 points. The South Korean KOSPI index closed down 0.48% at 6,838.04 points.The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell slightly to 5.21%.Brent crude oil fell 1.0% on the day, to $95.18 per barrel.Spot gold rose above $4,200 per ounce, up 0.44% on the day.

US stock futures rise as markets await PCE inflation data.

U.S. stock futures rose, with Dow Jones futures up 0.5%, S&P 500 futures up 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.2%.

Market focus has shifted to Wednesday's release of the U.S. August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. As the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the market expects both overall and core PCE growth to accelerate month-over-month in August.

Tim Waterler, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said that if the data is better than expected, it could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance and provide a basis for further tightening of policy; if the data is weak, it could cause the market to reassess the necessity of an October rate hike and weaken the recent upward momentum of US Treasury yields.

The US dollar index stabilized and is on track for its best monthly performance since June. Market interest rate expectations continue to rise as the Federal Reserve refocuses on curbing inflation. Yields on US Treasury bonds of various maturities have temporarily stabilized, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.21%.

Oil prices fell, while gold rose above $4,200.

Brent crude oil fell 1.0% on the day, to $95.18 per barrel.

According to a recent research report released by JPMorgan Chase on September 29, the 10-day average of total oil exports from the Middle East has rebounded to 20.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to 89% of pre-war levels in 2025, only 11% lower than pre-war levels. JPMorgan Chase's commodities research team believes the crude oil market has essentially normalized. This means that despite ongoing regional conflicts, the substantial recovery on the supply side has been confirmed by data.

Spot gold rose above $4,200 per ounce, up 0.44% on the day.

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