Memory crisis deepens: DRAM manufacturers expect to meet only 60% of demand before 2027, years of shortage may be inevitable

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The explosive growth in AI computing power demand is pushing the global DRAM market into a prolonged supply crisis.

The latest industry data shows that even if major manufacturers such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron operate at full expansion, by the end of 2027 global DRAM supply will only be able to meet about 60% of market demand. The shortage and high prices of memory may last until the end of 2028 or even longer.

Research from Counterpoint indicates that annual DRAM production capacity needs to grow at a rate of 12% between 2026 and 2027 to ease shortages, while the current actual growth rate is only about 7.5%, revealing a striking gap. This disparity means supply and demand imbalance will continue to intensify in the years ahead.

The market has already responded. In the first quarter of 2026, memory prices soared 110% year-over-year, forcing PC manufacturers into a panic buying mode. Data center customers have preordered their full annual supply quotas in advance, further squeezing available inventory for the consumer market, with the smartphone and PC markets bearing the brunt of the impact.

Supply-Demand Gap Difficult to Bridge: Expansion Far Behind Demand

Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are rushing to build new production lines and factories, but the capacity release cycle means these investments will not be effective in the short term.

Counterpoint’s calculations clearly indicate a significant gap between the current 7.5% annual capacity growth and the 12% needed to ease shortages. This gap, combined with the inherent cycle of new factory construction, makes any substantial supply-demand rebalance unlikely before 2027.

AI Consumes Capacity: PC and Mobile Markets Are the Biggest Victims

AI infrastructure construction is now dominating global DRAM capacity allocation. Data center operators are massively pre-ordering AI-specific memory such as HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), which virtually locks up the entire yearly output from major manufacturers, leaving very limited allocation for the consumer electronics market.

Meanwhile, leading manufacturers like Samsung have successively discontinued traditional memory specifications such as DDR3, DDR4, and LPDDR4, focusing resources on higher-margin products like HBM and SOCAMM2. Micron’s consumer-facing Crucial brand has also announced its exit, further narrowing supply channels for PC users and system vendors.

For PC manufacturers, Counterpoint’s forecast is not optimistic—memory prices will continue to rise, and this pressure will be difficult to dissipate in the foreseeable future.

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