Memory price surge impacts; Goldman Sachs lowers global smartphone shipment forecast

```

Persistently high memory prices are profoundly changing the structure of the global smartphone market. Goldman Sachs has sharply lowered its 2026 global shipment forecast, with the year-on-year decline expanding suddenly from the previous 6% to 10%. However, the trend toward higher-end models means the overall market value is still maintaining positive growth, with the industry accelerating towards a structural shift of "declining volume and rising prices."

In its latest report released on June 20, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2026 global smartphone shipment forecast by 4% to 1.14 billion units, with the year-on-year decline widening from -6% previously to -10%. The 2027 projection was also lowered by 3% to 1.17 billion units, with the year-on-year growth rate slightly revised up from +2% to +3%. The report also introduced the 2028 forecast, with shipments at 1.182 billion units, up 1% year-on-year. The core reason for this adjustment is that the continued rise in memory costs is suppressing terminal demand, compounded by an already saturated overall market.

In contrast to the decline in shipments, Goldman Sachs expects the global smartphone market value to grow year-on-year by 3%, 2%, and 2% in 2026-28, reaching $595.7 billion, $606.3 billion, and $621.4 billion respectively. Rising memory costs are pushing up average prices, and consumers are accelerating their shift to high-end models above $600, together supporting market value and partially offsetting the pressure of shrinking shipments. This diverging pattern affects different segments of the industrial chain distinctly.

Goldman Sachs simultaneously lowered its 2026/27 foldable smartphone shipment forecasts by 10% and 7% respectively, to 41.1 million and 69.1 million units, but remains optimistic about the medium- to long-term increase in penetration rate for this segment, projecting penetration will rise from 3.6% in 2026 to 6.8% in 2028.

Shipment Forecast Further Lowered, All Major Brands Under Pressure

This latest downward revision by Goldman Sachs is a further correction of its January forecast—at that time, the 2026 growth expectation was already adjusted from positive growth to -6%. The decline has now widened again, reflecting the impact of rising memory prices on consumer demand, which continues to exceed previous estimations.

Among major brands, Apple and Samsung saw relatively moderate declines of 2% and 3%, with market shares expected to rise to 22% and 21% respectively.

By region, BRICS countries are under the most pressure, with Goldman Sachs forecasting an 11% year-on-year drop in shipments in that area by 2026. Developed markets will see a total decline of 4%; the US and Western Europe are expected to fall by 5% and 4% respectively, showing stronger resilience.

Market Value Remains Positive, High-End Segment Provides Structural Cushion

The high-end market is the main driver supporting the growth in global smartphone market value.

Goldman Sachs forecasts that shipments of high-end models (over $600) will expand at a 5% compound annual growth rate between 2026 and 2028, reaching 402 million units in 2028, with their proportion in total shipments rising from 29% in 2025 to 34%. In terms of revenue, the high-end market's share is expected to rise from 66% in 2025 to 76% in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 8%. Goldman Sachs notes that high-end consumers are less affected by macro fluctuations and increases in memory prices, and the continued technological upgrades of high-end models create additional demand, jointly supporting strong performance in this segment.

The mid-range market ($200-600) is set to continue shrinking. Goldman Sachs believes that lack of breakthrough technological advancements and increasingly conservative consumption by the middle class will cause mid-range shipments to decline at a 2% compound annual rate, dropping to 285 million units in 2028, with revenue share further compressed from 22% in 2025 to 14%.

The entry-level market (below $200) is expected to remain relatively stable, with shipments growing slightly at a compound annual rate of 1% to about 494 million units, maintaining a roughly 42% share of total shipments. Goldman Sachs warns that price-sensitive consumers are the group hit hardest by this round of memory price increases, and the downside risk in this segment should not be underestimated.

Foldables: Short-Term Forecast Lowered, Intense Brand Entry Supports Long-Term Optimism

Although foldable smartphones are also dragged down by rising memory costs, Goldman Sachs maintains a positive long-term outlook for this market segment. The report lowers the 2026/27 foldable shipment forecasts by 10% and 7% respectively, but raises penetration expectations—with 2026/27 penetration rates at 3.6% and 5.9%, both higher than previous forecasts of 3.4% and 4.1%. For 2028, penetration is expected to reach 6.8%, corresponding to shipments of 80.4 million units.

The core logic supporting Goldman Sachs' optimism includes: major global brands will launch new foldable models en masse in the second half of 2026, innovations like tri-fold phones offering larger screens and differentiated experiences, and continued maturity of supply chains making prices more affordable.

The foldable iPhone from Apple is a key variable in the market. Goldman Sachs' model shows Apple's foldable shipments are expected to reach 14.1 million units in 2026 and further jump to 34.4 million units in 2027, becoming a major driver in accelerating foldable penetration.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The above content is from Chasing Wind Trading Desk.

For more detailed interpretation, including real-time analysis and frontline research, please join Chasing Wind Trading Desk Annual Membership

Risk warning and disclaimerThe market involves risk, and investments should be made with caution. This article does not constitute individual investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any particular user. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their own situation. Investments are made at your own risk. ```