Meta Muse faces retention bottlenecks after its initial surge in popularity: its open rate is lower than mainstream apps, and its long-term monetization faces challenges.

Meta Platforms' AI agent Muse has seen strong download growth since its launch, but the dual bottlenecks of user retention and monetization are drawing market attention. BNP Paribas' cautious approach to its long-term monetization path highlights the common challenge of customer acquisition and retention for consumer AI applications.

According to BNP Paribas, citing third-party data, Muse has been downloaded over 5.6 million times since its launch in September, briefly topping the Apple App Store charts. In its early stages in the US market, its download performance even surpassed ChatGPT and Sora. However, analyst Nick Jones points out that while Muse's app open rate has stabilized, it remains lower than established apps like Google Play, ChatGPT, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook, indicating that the product has not yet integrated into users' daily habits.

BNP Paribas maintained its "Outperform" rating on Meta with a target price of $885, but lowered its expectations for Muse's long-term monetization capabilities. Jones emphasized that whether Muse can translate initial hype into sustained activity and how to build a sustainable business model remain key issues for investors to focus on. Meanwhile, OpenAI launched its new consumer AI agent product, Dots, this week, accelerating the evolution of the competitive landscape in the consumer AI market.

Social ecosystems boost downloads, but open rates reveal retention bottlenecks.

Muse's impressive download numbers in its early stages were largely due to Meta's vast social platform ecosystem.

Jones stated that compared to standalone AI applications that need to build a user base from scratch, Meta can leverage the existing user reach of Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook to provide Muse with a natural promotional channel, while significantly reducing user acquisition costs. This distribution advantage enabled Muse to surpass ChatGPT and Sora in downloads during its initial launch in the US market.

It is worth noting that OpenAI's video generation application Sora quickly became popular after its launch, but it has since been integrated into ChatGPT and is no longer operated as a standalone application—this precedent suggests to the market that there is a significant gap between initial download popularity and long-term product lifespan.

For Muse , the rapid accumulation of downloads did not translate into high-frequency usage.

Jones points out that Muse's lower open rate compared to many mainstream apps indicates that the product is still in the early stages of cultivating user habits and is far from becoming a tool that consumers frequently rely on in their daily lives . The key to the next stage will shift from driving download growth to improving user retention, usage frequency, and long-term engagement.

Vertical platforms are unlikely to be shaken in the short term; the core difference lies in the completeness of their functions.

As AI agents gradually acquire capabilities such as information retrieval, product comparison, and transaction execution, discussions have begun regarding whether such products pose a competitive threat to vertical service platforms like e-commerce and travel. BNP Paribas maintains a cautious stance on this issue.

Jones believes that given Muse's limited current user base and its lack of direct product or service supply, complete transaction experience, and customer service capabilities found in vertical platforms, it is unlikely to pose a substantial threat to the aforementioned platforms in the short term. Professional e-commerce or travel platforms typically offer not only information retrieval and recommendations but also a complete system encompassing product inventory, transaction processing, order management, and after-sales support—even if an AI agent can help users discover products, it may not be able to independently complete the entire transaction loop.

Whether Muse can change consumers' shopping and service usage habits in the future still depends on whether Meta can continue to improve related functions and expand the depth of cooperation with external merchants.

With unclear monetization paths, advertising may be a breakthrough point during the growth phase.

The commercialization path is another key reason why BNP Paribas remains cautious about Muse's prospects.

Jones' analysis points out that Muse currently monetizes its services primarily by charging partners a small transaction fee, while also employing a model that combines free basic services with paid subscriptions—the basic version is offered for free, while users with high demand can pay monthly for higher usage limits.

This pricing strategy helps Meta expand its user base and increase engagement in the early stages of product development, rather than prematurely pursuing revenue maximization. However, Jones emphasizes that Muse's long-term monetization potential remains a significant uncertainty for investors.

BNP Paribas believes that, leveraging Meta's extensive experience in digital advertising, and with Muse's continued increase in user engagement, advertising may become an attractive monetization strategy, gradually extending revenue streams from subscription fees and transaction commissions to advertising. However, given that user habits are not yet fully established, whether this business model can generate substantial revenue remains to be seen and will require market validation.

OpenAI Dots enters the market, intensifying competition in the consumer AI arena.

The competitive landscape of the consumer AI agent market is evolving rapidly. Jones is paying particular attention to OpenAI's new product, Dots, launched this week, believing that its future user acceptance will be a key indicator of the market's competitive trajectory. Meanwhile, the market is also watching whether tech companies like Alphabet will launch similar competitive products.

BNP Paribas believes that as more and more companies explore using AI to accomplish complex tasks, competition in the consumer AI agent market will gradually expand from model performance to multiple dimensions such as product experience, user retention, service integration, and commercialization capabilities.

For Meta, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook constitute a significant user distribution advantage, but whether this inherent advantage can be continuously translated into increased demand for Muse remains to be seen and requires further testing with more time and data.

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