Metal frenzy! Intraday LME nickel surges over 9%, NY silver rises over 6%, LME copper hits consecutive record highs.

This Tuesday, the metals market continued Monday's rally with a comprehensive breakout. London nickel led a surge in industrial metals, rising more than 9% intraday; New York silver futures jumped over 6% intraday, approaching the highest intraday record set a week ago. After London copper broke through the $13,000 mark for the first time in history on Monday, it moved even higher, rising over 3% intraday on Tuesday and hitting new historical highs for two consecutive days. New York gold futures rose over 1% intraday, erasing most of last Monday’s post-CME trading margin hike losses and edging closer to the record set before Christmas.

Chinese investors have become key drivers of the current round of metal gains. Trading data shows that prices of metals including nickel, copper, and tin surged during Asian trading hours with explosive volume, and prices rose again after the night session opened on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. By the close of the day session on Tuesday, Shanghai silver was up more than 7%, while Shanghai copper, tin, and nickel were up over 4%. When the night session opened, Shanghai nickel rose nearly 5%, silver nearly 3%, tin over 2%, and copper over 1%.

The Trump administration's potential tariff policy continues to ferment. According to some reports, President Trump is considering imposing a 15% tariff on imported copper in 2027, increasing it to 30% in 2028. The expectation of higher U.S. tariffs has prompted a surge of copper inventory flowing into the U.S. According to CME data, U.S. copper inventory has grown more than fourfold since April 2025, reaching 453,450 tons as of January 2, while supplies in other global regions are running short.

Geopolitical risks are driving safe-haven demand. According to Xinhua News Agency, in the early hours of Saturday, January 3rd, the U.S. launched large-scale military operations against Venezuela, raiding its capital Caracas and other locations, forcibly taking President Maduro and his wife under control and bringing them to the U.S. The forced detainment of Maduro by the U.S. has escalated global tensions, supporting higher precious metals prices. Bloomberg’s precious metals category index rose more than 13% over the past month and about 5% since the beginning of the year.

London Nickel Leads: Chinese Buying Drives Largest Three-Year Surge

Three-month nickel futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) soared over 9% at one point on Tuesday, reaching a high of $18,545/ton, the biggest intraday gain in more than three years. In the past two weeks, nickel prices have risen more than 20% cumulatively.

This marks a dramatic reversal. Previously, the nickel market was hampered by excess production capacity in Indonesia and lower-than-expected usage in EV batteries. The latest rally also signifies a revival for the London Metal Exchange’s nickel contracts, whose trading volumes had shrunk sharply since the historic short squeeze in 2022.

Trading data shows Chinese investors played a key role in driving the nickel price surge. LME futures jumped in the Asian session with high volumes, and rose again after the Shanghai night session opened. Although the nickel market remains in significant oversupply, rising production risks in Indonesia, the world's largest supplier, have supported market sentiment, alongside widespread investment inflows into China’s domestic metals market.

London Copper Breaks Records: Inventory "Locked in the U.S."

LME three-month copper futures climbed further on Tuesday, reaching as high as $13,387.50/ton intraday after breaking the $13,000 barrier on Monday. This set intraday records for two consecutive days, with a daily gain of 3.1% and closing up nearly 1.9% at $13,238/ton, the first close above $13,000. Copper prices have gained more than 20% cumulatively since late November 2025.

Inventory migration triggered by tariff expectations has become the core logic behind copper’s surge. Anticipation of tariffs by the Trump administration on refined copper has led to a rush of inventories into the U.S., causing shortages in other regions as miners struggle to ramp up production.

Li Xuezhi, Director of Research at Chaos Tiancheng Futures, commented, "Inventory previously acted as a buffer, but now it is locked in the U.S. So the buffer is gone, and now everyone is scrambling for goods."

Although demand has slowed in recent months—especially in the biggest consumer, China—Chinese buyers are forced to join bidding wars to secure supply as copper continues to flow to the U.S. The LMEX index tracking six major LME-traded metals has surged to its highest level since March 2022, and aluminum prices have also hit a more than three-year high. The launch of a strike at Chile’s Mantoverde copper mine has further heightened supply concerns.

Warren Patterson, Head of Commodity Strategy at ING, said, "Until the tariff issues are clarified, tariff risks will keep supply tight outside the U.S. and global prices elevated. The risk to copper prices is if refined metal is exempt again from tariffs; funds flowing to the U.S. could reverse and push inventory back into global markets."

U.S. copper import data confirms this trend. In December last year, U.S. copper imports jumped to the highest since July. Boosted by higher copper prices, Freeport-McMoRan rose over 4% early Tuesday, while Southern Copper, the largest U.S.-listed copper miner by market value, also gained over 4%; BHP Group’s U.S. shares rose nearly 3% at one point.

Silver Futures Surge: Chinese Retail Buy-In Triggers Self-Reinforcing Rally

By Tuesday’s mid-session, March New York silver futures and spot silver both climbed above $81, up more than 6% intraday, approaching the record set on Monday, December 29th. Silver futures posted a 147% gain for 2025, their strongest annual performance in over forty years since the 1970s.

Chinese retail investors played a pivotal role in the latest surge in silver prices. Reports noted that as silver broke through $80 in the last week of 2025, lines grew even longer in front of counters at Shui Bei market—the largest domestic gold and jewelry trading hub in Shenzhen.

Jiemian News quoted local merchants who reflected on premium silver sales at Shui Bei, commenting, "It's never been so hot in recent years," and, "In late December last year, prices rose basically one yuan per day, Shui Bei went crazy, everyone was scrambling for silver."

Another report quoted precious metals seller Fenny Zeng: "Even the aunties came," referring to the buyers who helped China surpass India to become the world’s largest gold consumer in 2013.

This time, their target is silver. On one hand, gold prices have become too expensive. Although silver has also spiked, its price remains affordable and highly volatile, making it an attractive choice for those who feel they've missed the gold rally. The memory of last October’s historic squeeze in the London silver market remains fresh—from decreasing Chinese inventories to U.S. import tariffs locking up supply in New York, silver bulls have reasons to remain optimistic.

As the world’s largest consumer of silver, China’s new demand for silver as a precious metal—not just an industrial commodity—has pushed domestic retail buyers to the forefront of year-end mania.

During those few days in late December last year, the rally became self-reinforcing: Chinese demand pushed up global spot prices, which further attracted more local buyers—enticed by viral social media investment content. China's only pure silver fund even had to turn away new investors out of concern for risks from high asset premiums.

Gold Futures Rise: Geopolitical Risks and Rate Cut Expectations Play Together

New York gold futures broke $4,500 in early U.S. trading on Tuesday, up 1.1% intraday; spot gold climbed over $4,490, nearly 1% higher on the day, both setting highs since last Monday. Gold prices have risen over 60% in 2025, their best annual performance since 1979.

Heightened geopolitical tensions from the U.S. arrest of former Venezuelan President Maduro have boosted safe-haven demand. "Precious metals traders are seeing more risks now versus equities and bonds," said Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff. "The weekend U.S. raid on Venezuela has driven continued safe-haven demand for gold and silver."

Rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve are also propping up gold prices. Market participants are watching Friday’s U.S. monthly jobs report, expecting 60,000 new jobs in December, slightly less than the prior 64,000. According to Refinitiv, traders expect two Fed rate cuts this year. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said further rate changes must "fine-tune" in order to balance unemployment and inflation risks. As a zero-yield asset, gold tends to benefit in a low-rate environment.

Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank noted, "Last weekend’s U.S. intervention in Venezuela provided a tailwind, enhancing safe-haven demand. Furthermore, the U.S. December ISM manufacturing index disappointed, falling to a 14-month low."

Morgan Stanley predicts that, helped by falling rates, changes in Fed leadership, and strong central bank and fund buying, gold prices could soar to $4,800/oz by Q4 2026.

Among precious metals, platinum and palladium outperformed silver and gold on Tuesday, with spot platinum and palladium surging over 7% and 6% intraday, respectively.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerMarkets carry risk; investments must be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial circumstances, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether the opinions, views, or conclusions here fit their own situation. Investment decisions are at your own risk.