Middle East situation escalates: Multiple drone attacks erupt in Dubai, oil prices surpass $100 mark

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Iran has launched a new wave of strikes against Dubai and regional shipping assets, pushing the Middle East conflict into a new and dangerous phase. Brent crude oil prices briefly surpassed $100 per barrel in early trading today, the Strait of Hormuz remains nearly closed, and the global energy supply continues to face shortages.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on March 11, two drones crashed near Dubai International Airport, injuring four people. Bloomberg reported that on March 11–12, two crude oil tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, and Oman immediately evacuated personnel from the key oil export terminal Mina Al Fahal.

The continued escalation of the situation has weighed on financial markets. Brent crude briefly rose above $101.50 per barrel in early trading Thursday and was quoted at $96.5 at the time of writing.

According to a model constructed by Bloomberg economists Bhargavi Sakthivel and Ziad Daoud, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a month, Brent prices could climb to $105 per barrel; if the closure lasts up to three months, peak prices could approach $164.

Dubai Hit, Financial Institutions Evacuate Offices

This strike on Dubai is one of the most direct impacts on the global financial hub since the conflict broke out on February 28. Earlier on Wednesday, the Associated Press quoted Iran’s Joint Military Command as saying banks and financial institutions have become targets in the Middle East. Institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Citigroup immediately notified their employees in Dubai not to go to the office.

On Thursday morning, Dubai authorities reported a small-scale drone attack in the Al Bada'a area near downtown. Kuwait also stated that its international airport was hit by multiple drones, causing property damage.

Dubai International Airport temporarily suspended operations on Wednesday—four people were injured in the drone attack. Bloomberg data shows that since the conflict began on February 28, more than 46,000 flights have been canceled in the region.

Strait of Hormuz Nearly Paralyzed, Regional Oil Producers Forced to Cut Output

The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas trade flows, and since the outbreak of the conflict, this waterway has become nearly impassable. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have all been forced to reduce crude oil production.

According to Bloomberg, on March 11–12, two crude oil tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, and Oman immediately evacuated personnel from the strategic oil export terminal Mina Al Fahal.

Bloomberg, citing a UK Navy report, stated that three ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf were hit by suspected projectiles on March 11. Omani authorities also reported that a Thai-flagged cargo ship was attacked.

To ease the pressure on energy prices, the International Energy Agency has approved a large-scale release of strategic oil reserves. In a speech in Kentucky, Trump said this move would "significantly lower oil prices." However, these statements and the release of reserves have not effectively calmed market volatility, and oil prices continued to rise on March 12.

Ceasefire Conditions Clear, but Negotiation Outlook Uncertain

On Wednesday, Pezeshkian posted on X, saying that after speaking with leaders of Russia and Pakistan, Iran demands "strong international guarantees against future aggression" and compensation, which is Tehran’s clearest statement on a ceasefire so far.

Bloomberg, quoting informed sources, said Iran is particularly concerned that Israel will launch another attack after the current conflict ends. Whether the US is willing to make relevant commitments and can restrain Israel remains uncertain.

Trump has sent conflicting signals about the direction of the conflict. He told Axios that Iran "almost has no more targets to hit," but at the same time indicated in a speech that the US should not withdraw hastily: "We wouldn’t want to leave early, would we?" The US military and Israeli officials have hinted that the conflict may last for weeks rather than days.

Casualties Keep Increasing, Conflict Spreads to Lebanon

According to official and NGO statistics, since the conflict broke out on February 28, about 2,500 people have died in the Middle East. Data from Human Rights Activists News Agency show that at least 1,825 Iranians have died. The US military has lost at least 7 service members, most killed in the first two days of the conflict.

The conflict has also spread to Lebanon. Since March 2, Israel has attacked Hezbollah-related targets in Lebanon. According to the Lebanese National News Agency, at least 634 people have been killed in Israeli airstrikes.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that military operations would continue until "victory is achieved." Bloomberg reports that the US and Israel remain publicly in sync, but privately, officials admit that a prolonged conflict might gradually widen divisions between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

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