Middle Eastern and European officials believe that reaching a US-Iran peace agreement will "take at least six months" and that the ceasefire should be extended first.

Middle Eastern and European officials believe that reaching a US-Iran peace agreement will "take at least six months" and that the ceasefire should be extended first.

The US-Iran negotiations are far more complex than market expectations, and the most pressing issues at present may be whether the ceasefire agreement can be extended and when the Strait will reopen.

According to media reports on April 17, several Gulf and European officials familiar with private consultations said that a peace agreement between the US and Iran is expected to take about six months to reach. Leaders from all parties are privately urging both sides to extend the ceasefire window to this timeframe. After the news broke, Brent crude oil surged by about 4.5% that day, breaking through $99 per barrel.

These officials requested anonymity as the discussions are not public. They also warned that if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened before next month, a global food crisis may emerge; if the conflict drags on, energy prices will rise further.

Currently, the US and Iran are weighing the possibility of extending the ceasefire agreement by two weeks. The existing ceasefire plan will expire late night (April 21) eastern US time next Tuesday. Extending the ceasefire will give both sides more time to negotiate, but whether an extension or a formal agreement will be achieved remains uncertain.

According to Xinhua News Agency, US media reports indicate that the US and Iran have agreed in principle to extend the ceasefire, but neither government has officially confirmed it.

Strait of Hormuz: The Most Urgent Economic Fuse

Since the outbreak of the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz has been "effectively" closed. This channel is the core route for Gulf countries' exports of oil, liquefied natural gas, aluminum, and fertilizers—closure has directly hit the Gulf economies.

In response to media inquiries, the UAE Foreign Ministry cited its April 8 statement, saying that the Strait of Hormuz must be "unconditionally reopened" and emphasized the need to "comprehensively and continuously address Iran's various threats, including its nuclear capability, ballistic missiles, drones, military capacity, affiliated proxy forces, and terrorist organizations."

Iran, on the other hand, wants to retain control over the Strait—a stance directly opposed to the Gulf countries' demands, and one of the hardest obstacles in negotiations.

Although oil prices have fallen since the April 8 ceasefire, they have still risen by more than 35% compared to pre-conflict levels.

Nuclear Weapons and Missiles: Core Differences in Negotiations

Gulf officials clearly state their belief that Iran is still pursuing nuclear weapons—this assessment has not changed following US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Therefore, they believe any peace agreement must explicitly prohibit Iran from enriching uranium and possessing long-range ballistic missiles.

Rob Macaire, former British Ambassador to Iran and member of the Chatham House Council, said there is a workable solution on the nuclear issue—Iran commits to allow inspectors to enter the country and suspend uranium enrichment for a fixed period. On the economic side, the US may offer partial unfreezing of Iranian assets and relaxation of oil trade restrictions as compensation.

But he also pointed out that the ownership of control over the Strait of Hormuz and the security guarantees demanded by Iran will be "much more complicated" issues.

Fragile Ceasefire, Uncertain Negotiations

Rob Macaire said bluntly: "No agreement will be reached between the US and Iran in the short term. President Trump’s optimistic attitude stems from his awareness of market impact."

He further stated: "The key is not just whether the negotiations can succeed, but whether both sides can do enough in the coming period to prevent the conflict from reigniting. This is possible, but hardliners inside Iran are likely eager to resume missile launches—it's a huge game."

Beyond the nuclear and missile issues, the negotiations face multiple obstacles: the extent of sanctions relief against Iran; ongoing fights between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon—all remain unresolved variables. Trump announced on Thursday that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ten-day ceasefire. Some officials believe if the Lebanese ceasefire is implemented, it may help advance US-Iran negotiations.

Although Gulf countries generally oppose renewed conflict and support the US in resolving issues through diplomacy, there is still a clear gap between the complexity of negotiations and the market's previous optimistic expectations.

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