Midfield Battle of IP Trendy Toys: Traffic Recedes, Common Sense Returns

潮 play IPs seem to be entering a phase of frequent launches. Recently, Pop Mart announced a new IP, KeyA, which will debut in March. With this, only two months into 2026, the company has intensively launched three new IPs: Supertutu, After School Merodi, and KeyA, shortening the interval from two months to one week, setting the fastest record in recent years. Other brands are accelerating their positioning as well. At the end of February, 52TOYS collaborated with the Shanxi Museum to launch "NOOK Shanxi Journey to the West"; CardYou joined hands with Shanghai Animation Film Studio to release new national animation card products such as "Havoc in Heaven" and "Nezha Conquers the Dragon King". IP is the origin of everything. However, in boisterous years, what’s more urgent than polishing IP is breaking out of the circle. Last year, the traffic density in the trend play industry climbed to historic highs. Hits, premiums, and secondary market topics repeatedly occupied the center of public opinion, and the concept of “trend play” was constantly broadened amid heated discussions. But on the other end of the scale, the arena is becoming increasingly crowded, consumer thresholds keep rising, and simple, rough traffic strategies are starting to fail, with anxiety emerging simultaneously. When frequent launches become the norm, the truly scarce ability is no longer “launching an IP,” but continuously operating an IP. Compared to repeatedly discussing who will be “the next Pop Mart,” perhaps the more crucial question is: Who can truly manage their IP assets well? Reevaluating IP and emotional consumption In the past year, LABUBU and "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child" became phenomenon-level "beacons" for the industry, with categories like Nezha cards, blind boxes, and food toys briefly in short supply. This explosion of IP derivative consumption is no accident. National-level IPs have built-in traffic entry, and mature supply chains and distribution networks amplify conversion efficiency, allowing IP value to be realized in a concentrated period. Senior IP licensing industry practitioner Mr. Ji told Xinfeng that Nezha IP’s long-tail effect is more enduring than most people expect: “Content plus product empowerment enables the IP to iterate continuously.” In his view, the heat of the IP is further extended through the commercialization path. The heat of Nezha IP offers a replicable reference for subsequent markets: the commercial rhythm of IPs is significantly advanced, and the matrix of collaborations becomes the core lever for reaching the masses and amplifying volume. This prompts numerous animation film IPs to prepare in advance. For example, “Little Monsters of Langlang Mountain” initiated cooperation with multiple authorized parties through Shanghai Film's brand “Shangying Yuan” at the project’s early stage. Before the release of “Zootopia 2," the number of IP collaboration brands has approached 70, covering food & beverage, FMCG, apparel, jewelry, cultural tourism and other sectors. Unlike the scalable collaboration of licensed IPs, the popularity of LABUBU and vinyl plush toys represents another trend for self-owned IPs. From repeated sell-outs and secondary market premiums of LABUBU's “High Energy Ahead” series to the supply-demand tension of LABUBU 4.0 pushing Pop Mart’s share price to new highs, the market has fully appreciated the magic of original IP characters. Compared to traditional trend plays that emphasize collectible attributes, vinyl plush toys strengthen the sense of companionship and tactile experience, turning abstract emotional value into products with everyday characteristics. A long-term trend play investor told Xinfeng: Although Nezha and LABUBU respectively represent licensing and self-developed paths, the underlying logic driving consumption is similar: social interaction and self-expression. In a context where break time is compressed and entertainment methods are restricted, light-weight, easy-to-trade, and displayable Nezha cards become social media matching campus scenarios; when the hard-to-get LABUBU is hung on a Hermès bag, the circulation of IP products more densely serves circle interaction and identity expression. When the core of consumption shifts from collecting to expression, value is built on the premise of "being seen," and the scale of the radiating customer group becomes the new growth variable. Between traffic coming and going For self-developed IPs still in the cultivation phase, the primary issue for the half-life of traffic explosions is digesting demand and rebalancing price systems. With increased production capacity, LABUBU's resale price "plummeted" from the heat’s peak, prompting a market adjustment of expectations. After reaching a new share price high in August 2025, Pop Mart's market value pulled back over 40% in four months, evaporating about HK$200 billion. By February this year, many previously scarce hot-selling items on shelves were nearly fully restocked. Goldman Sachs pointed out in a January tracking report that Supertutu’s debut series sold only over 500 units on Tmall. Partial data mixed with overall trends led market expectations to diverge. Similar cyclical fluctuations also appeared in the card field. Back in 2024, CardYou achieved remarkable results with nearly 70% gross profit margin and over RMB 10 billion in revenue, as well as over RMB 4 billion profit. But whether transaction volume or market attention, the card market saw a clear cooling down in the following year. A card practitioner told Xinfeng that the usual wholesale discount from manufacturers to channels was 50-60%, but in the second half of 2025, discounts for some products dropped to as low as 10%. The loosening of the price system essentially reflects the direct slowdown of demand. "Card manufacturers find it hard to resist the urge to expand production, but continual expansion will weaken scarcity, thereby offsetting the enthusiasm of core collectors," said the practitioner. In his view, the generic traffic dividends CardYou accrued from IPs like "My Little Pony" and Nezha have been digested in stages. With inventories not yet fully cleared, the distributor-based system is under increased pressure, management complexity rises notably, and price discipline and brand tempo both face challenges. In the view of the aforementioned investor, scarcity and secondary market premiums are merely operating methods, not the core variables determining an IP’s long-term value. “Whether releasing or restricting products, the ultimate goal is a stable consumer circle and continuously active user base.” CICC analyst Zhang Xueqing believes that when an IP achieves its first massive breakthrough and enters the "middle phase" of its lifecycle, its heat tends to naturally fall, and user structure gradually returns from generic traffic to core circles. For IP operators, the focus in the stable phase is no longer "generating hype," but maintaining the basic plate, extending the brand half-life, and preparing for the next "break-out moment." Around this shift, the industry is seeking new leverage points. Character IPs accelerating upstream content layout has become a trend. Season one of “LABUBU and Friends” animated series has completed copyright registration, and there are rumors in the market that Sony Pictures has obtained LABUBU’s film adaptation rights, with related film projects in early preparation. Meanwhile, Pop Mart supplemented a more complete world setting when announcing its new IP "After School Merodi," reflecting an attempt to extend its strategy from product-driven to content-driven. Horizontal collaboration in the IP ecosystem is also accelerating, with self-developed character IPs’ industry collaborations increasing markedly. For example, almost all billion-level core IPs under Pop Mart have engaged in cross-over collaborations, covering coffee and tea, home/makeup, and themed dining consumer scenarios. Moreover, LVMH Greater China President Wu Yue became a non-executive director on Pop Mart’s board, interpreted externally as a signal that Pop Mart is further aligning with international fashion and high-end consumer circles. Zhang Xueqing points out that derivative development can bring a "multiplier effect" to IP, with content creators expanding user radius through physical consumption and service experience, completing IP validation and value precipitating in commercial monetization. Unlike self-developed trend play IPs, mature content IPs like those from film are fundamentally built on licensed distribution. During intense heat release, large-scale collaborations can quickly amplify IP volume and monetization efficiency. However, when authorized brands flood the market in a short time, the market space is rapidly filled. Mr. Ji uses "Little Monsters of Langlang Mountain" as an example, pointing out that although many licenses were signed, authorized vendors are numerous and similar, leading to similar products in the market, compelling manufacturers to compete in product strength, supply chain efficiency, brand power, and launch speed. Getting more crowded Domestic IP trend play consumption is still in the early stages. A major advantage of domestic IP trend play lies in its complete industrialization capability, supply chain responsiveness, and category extension capacity. From vinyl plush to cards and food toys, production supply remains saturated. What's really needed is reconstruction of IP ecosystem operation methods and value distribution structures. This segment is becoming a rapidly overcrowded battleground. The role of channel vendors is changing first—not just selling licensed products, but attempting to build their own IP assets and platform capabilities. At present, MINISO’s “IP Genius Youth Program,” KK Group’s X11 “Star Project,” and Yuewen Group’s “Global Trend Play Co-creation Program” all emphasize industry chain empowerment and full-chain support, showing platform characteristics. Changes in offline spaces provide realistic soil for channels to transform from sales terminals to trend play consumption spaces. In recent years, international FMCG occupying shopping mall core positions has continued to withdraw, accelerating the availability of prime spots. MINISO is advancing “replacing birds in old cages,” planning to upgrade about 80% of existing stores, using flagship stores like MINISO LAND to host IP launches and operation functions. Brands originally grown through chain channels are also beginning to create their own IP “pilgrimage spaces.” For example, the Wonderland behind WAKUKU opened stores in Beijing’s Heshenghui and other places, while Jason Entertainment’s Senluo Wanxiang is expanding in multiple cities, seeking not only sales scale but also scenario positioning and user mindshare. If channels are competing for entry points, content vendors are vying for sources and domination. As one of Nezha’s main producers, Enlight Media’s Chairman Wang Changtian recently made it clear in an internal letter, “Movies are no longer the end point,” with future project evaluation focused on IP value rather than single box office revenue. Alpha Group and Fantawild have long extended their own animation IPs like Pleasant Goat and Boonie Bears through sequels, theme parks, and derivative sales, forming closed loops and strengthening lifecycle control. Long-term licensing teams, systematic combing of IP databases, and planning ahead for commercialization rhythm are expected to be gradually adopted by more companies. The boundaries of operation are also extending. Pop Mart once compared itself to a record company, viewing artists and IPs as Jay Chou or Mayday-like "artists"; and YuHua Entertainment, which specializes in artist management, has accumulated experience running WAKUKU with Wonderland, and is exploring integration of IPs with embodied intelligence. From the evolution of business forms, the rise of IP consumption is not an isolated phenomenon. Shopping centers need new customer flow anchors, brands need stronger emotional connections, and content companies need more stable income structures. Against this background, IP is increasingly becoming a crucial hub connecting manufacturing, content, and retail. The trend play IP business itself is gradually evolving into a contest between ecosystems. IP is a long-cycle business with compound returns. But compound interest never belongs to those who only chase hot trends. When the hit effect fades, what will shape the landscape are abilities to manage the lifecycle, stabilize price systems, and integrate resources across scenarios. The market and time will provide the answers. Risk warning and disclaimer The market has risks, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific situation. Investing based on this is at your own risk.