"Monetizing 'Tang-Luo-ism'? Chevron urgently deploys 11 oil tankers, currently hauling Venezuelan crude oil back to the United States."

As the Trump administration converts geopolitical influence into tangible energy interests, Venezuela’s oil resources are rapidly flowing to the U.S. Under the framework of the so-called “Donroism” policy, the U.S. is reshaping the energy map of the Western Hemisphere through direct intervention, characterized by transitioning from sanctions and blockades to a U.S.-led redistribution of resources.

According to CCTV News, on January 6 local time, U.S. President Trump announced that Venezuela’s interim government would transfer 30-50 million barrels of oil to the United States. Meanwhile, market data shows that actual logistics have begun; ship movements show that out of 11 tankers chartered by Chevron, one has finished loading, and another two are currently docked at port. All the crude oil will be sent to U.S. refineries, including Valero Energy Corp, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum Corp. The number of chartered ships has hit a new high since last October, rising from nine in December.

Due to this news, international crude oil prices dropped. The market widely believes that with the U.S. taking over the situation in Venezuela, the risk of the country’s oil output collapsing has lessened, and exports to the U.S. will increase sharply in the short term, thus easing supply-side tensions.

On the U.S. stock market, although shares of Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and ExxonMobil surged briefly on Monday due to news of the regime change, by Tuesday, as the market began to reassess the complexities of a long-term recovery, Chevron gave back most of its gains.

Energy Monetization under “Donroism”

According to Global Times commentary, the Trump administration has upgraded the traditional “Monroe Doctrine” to a more aggressive “Donroism”. This new strategy clearly defines the Western Hemisphere as the U.S.’s “core interest zone” and authorizes the use of military force for direct intervention, aiming to remove the influence of other major powers in the region. From attacks on Venezuela to threats against Colombia and Mexico, the U.S. has brazenly turned "America is the Americas of Americans" into "America is the Americas of the United States." This forced transfer of Venezuelan oil is regarded as a direct example of this ideology being “cashed out”.

Media commentary states that this geopolitical shift did not surprise the market. With U.S. special forces arriving in Caracas, U.S. control over the Western Hemisphere has significantly increased. In this context, Venezuelan crude stocks previously restricted by sanctions are now turning into cheap feedstock for the U.S. refining system.

In this shift, Chevron, relying on its unique market position in Venezuela, has become the undisputed winner among American oil giants. Data shows that out of 11 Chevron-chartered tankers, one has completed loading while two are at the dock, marking the highest number since October last year.

As the only Western company that still holds a U.S. Treasury Department license allowing it to produce and export crude oil in Venezuela under sanctions, Chevron possesses operational and regulatory “moats” unmatched by competitors. This batch of crude being shipped to the U.S. will mainly supply refineries such as Valero Energy Corp, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum Corp.

Investment Banks’ Views: Lower Supply Risk, Price Pressure

On the direct impact of the Venezuela situation on the oil market, Wall Street investment banks generally maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude, pointing out that this will exert short-term downward pressure on oil prices.

UBS analyst Henri Patricot noted that although the U.S. embargo on Venezuela remains nominally in effect, recent events have reduced the risk of a continued decline in Venezuelan output and could even bring a rapid rebound. UBS expects that if restrictions are lifted, Venezuelan output could quickly rise from the current about 850,000 barrels/day to 1 million barrels/day, or even 1.2-1.3 million barrels/day. This potential supply increase would be another headwind for the oil market in 2026.

Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven’s team maintained their forecast for the average Brent crude price at $56/barrel in 2026, but noted that the Venezuela situation presents downside risks. Goldman estimates that if Venezuela’s output increases by 400,000 barrels/day before the end of 2026, the average Brent price may fall to $54 per barrel (below the $56 baseline forecast); conversely, if output declines, the average price could rise to $58/barrel. In the long run, if the country’s output recovers to 2 million barrels/day by 2030, it would push oil prices down by $4/barrel.

The Road to Recovery Faces Structural Challenges

Despite a surge in short-term exports, analysts warn that a comprehensive recovery of Venezuela’s oil industry faces huge structural obstacles. UBS emphasized that to restore production to the level of 2.5 million barrels/day a decade ago, it may take up to 10 years and massive capital investment.

Unlike Iran, Venezuela’s oil infrastructure has been severely damaged by chronic underinvestment. Although Trump claims U.S. oil companies will “spend billions of dollars to repair infrastructure,” UBS points out that this will require a very high degree of political stability. Reviewing the precedents of Iraq and Libya, restoring production capacity after regime change is often fraught with challenges.

Furthermore, media analysis points out that as the U.S. strengthens its control of the Western Hemisphere, the “shadow fleet” previously used to evade sanctions and transport Venezuelan oil will suffer a heavy blow. This fleet accounts for about 10% of the world’s sanctioned crude oil shipping capacity, and its contraction will be bad news for buyers relying on these secret supply channels.

On the macro supply level, OPEC+ has remained in a wait-and-see posture in the current shift. The eight countries implementing voluntary production cuts confirmed on Sunday that they will pause the planned increase for February and March, a decision in line with market expectations and without significant additional effect on oil prices.

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