More insider trading? Traders bet $430 million shorting oil prices before Trump announced an extended ceasefire.

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Fifteen minutes before U.S. President Trump announced on Tuesday the extension of the ceasefire agreement with Iran, traders placed bets totaling $430 million, wagering on a decline in crude oil prices.

This is the third time this month—and the fourth time in total—that such a situation has occurred: large, precisely timed directional bets on oil appeared in the market shortly before major statements regarding the Iranian war. In March, the combined bet reached as high as $500 million, while in April, several bets have totaled about $2.1 billion.

According to data from London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), between 19:54 and 20:56 GMT on Tuesday, 4,260 sell orders entered the market, valued at $430 million based on then-current Brent crude oil futures prices. Trump then announced the indefinite extension of the ceasefire at 20:10 GMT.

Brent crude oil's settlement time is 18:30 GMT, meaning these trades occurred during the so-called "post-settlement period," which typically sees very limited trading volume.

This batch of trades itself had little impact on oil prices; Brent crude oil fell only slightly from $100.91/barrel to $100.66/barrel. After Trump’s announcement, Brent oil futures fell to a low of $96.83/barrel in the following minute. As of Wednesday 12:00 GMT, the latest price was $99.2/barrel.

On March 23, fifteen minutes before Trump announced the postponement of a threatening strike on Iran's power infrastructure, anonymous traders placed $500 million in bets wagering oil prices would decline. Similarly, on April 7, just hours before Trump announced a two-week ceasefire agreement, short bets totaling $950 million quickly entered the market.

On April 17, about twenty minutes before Iran’s foreign minister posted on social media that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to commercial shipping, traders wagered $760 million in bearish bets on oil prices.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) spokesperson declined to comment on this matter.

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