More optimistic than Goldman Sachs! Citi is bullish on copper prices reaching $12,000 and tin prices reaching $40,000.

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The commodity market is undergoing a major price revaluation, as Citi has released a more aggressive bullish report than Goldman Sachs.

On October 9, according to Zhuifeng Trading Desk, Citi's latest research report shows an even more optimistic outlook for commodities than Goldman Sachs, forecasting that copper prices will climb to $11,000/ton in 0-3 months, and reach an average of $12,000/ton in the second quarter of 2026.

More importantly, Citi's report lists six major potential catalysts that could bring the $12,000 target “ahead of schedule”. This stands in sharp contrast to Goldman Sachs’ “high-level volatility range” of $10,000-$11,000/ton. At the same time, Citi gives a strong forecast of $40,000/ton for tin prices.

Analysis indicates that both Goldman and Citi reports show the market's bullish sentiment toward copper and tin is heating up, with the core logic being macroeconomic policies (such as interest rate cut expectations, currency depreciation) and structural supply-demand imbalances.

Citi Raises Forecasts: Copper Target at $12,000, Tin Bullish to $40,000

In the latest “Metal Matters” report, Citi significantly raised its copper and tin price forecasts. Specifically, Citi raised its 0-3 month copper price target from the previous $10,500/ton to $11,000/ton, and expects copper prices to average $12,000/ton by the second quarter of 2026.

Citi says that although the baseline forecast is for copper to rise to $12,000 in Q2 2026, six major catalysts could bring this forward significantly. Catalysts include changes at the Fed, progress in trade agreements, implementation of fiscal stimulus, and downward revisions to copper mine supply; policy and political developments become key variables.

For tin, Citi's forecast is more aggressive, lifting the previous $33,000-$35,000/ton range sharply to $40,000/ton, and expects this price level to be reached in Q4 2025 and maintained throughout 2026, due to Indonesia’s crackdown on informal mining, which will further prolong global tin supply tightness.

Citi notes that the market can digest recent demand concerns and price in the more optimistic fundamentals for both metals projected for 2026 ahead of time.

Goldman Sachs: $10,000 Is the “New Floor,” But There Is a Short-Term “Ceiling”

According to a previous article by Jianwen, by comparison, while Goldman Sachs is also optimistic about copper's long-term fundamentals, it is more cautious in the short term. Goldman believes copper is entering a new trading range of $10,000 to $11,000/ton.

The “new floor” at $10,000: Supported by structural challenges on the supply side. Increasing difficulties and costs in mining are leading to slow supply growth (expected average annual growth of only 1.5% in 2025-2030).

Goldman points out that to balance the market in the latter part of this decade, brownfield projects in South America need to be launched, which require an incentive price of at least $10,500/ton. Additionally, strategic demand in areas such as AI and defense (what Goldman calls the shift from “Dr. Copper” to “Colonel Copper”) also provides solid price support.

The $11,000 “ceiling”: Mainly comes from short-term “near-term worries” in the market. Goldman expects a small surplus of 180,000 tons in 2026.

The report says that high prices will encourage more scrap copper supply, and when the copper-to-aluminum price ratio exceeds 4:1 (corresponding to a copper price of about $10,200), substitution effects from aluminum will be significantly enhanced, thereby limiting the upward space for copper prices.

Goldman also points out a key variable—strategic reserves. If countries like China and the US conduct strategic procurement, they can absorb excess inventory in the market and provide price support. But if reserves fall short of expectations, prices could risk breaking below $10,000.

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