Morgan Stanley analyzes Nvidia Rubin: GPU no longer monopolizes the pie, PCB, MLCC, and ABF values soar together

Morgan Stanley has conducted a comprehensive Bill of Materials (BOM) teardown of Nvidia's next-generation Rubin rack, revealing a component value revaluation picture far exceeding market expectations. According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Morgan Stanley's latest research report notes that the report shows the Rubin rack purchased from ODMs is priced at about $7.8 million, nearly double the $3.99 million of the previous generation GB300 rack. This surge in value is not driven solely by the core GPU. Among the downstream components covered, PCB content value shows the most significant increase, surging 233% over GB300, followed by MLCC (+182%), ABF substrate (+82%), power supply (+32%) and liquid cooling components (+12%). Meanwhile, the report also points out that the added value portion for ODMs will increase 35%-40%, counter to market expectations and breaking the widely held view that Rubin system standardization would compress ODM added value. The overall valuation of the ODM segment remains attractive, with the current CY27 projected P/E ratio at about 13x—higher than the 20-year average of 11.5x but not an excessive difference. Total rack price approaches $7.8 million, memory share jumps to 26% Morgan Stanley's bottom-up BOM analysis shows hyperscalers purchase a Rubin VR200 NVL72 rack from ODMs for about $7.8 million; purchasing through OEM channels such as Lenovo, Asustek, Giga-Byte, Dell will cost even more. A core factor driving the sharp rise in rack cost is the notable increase in memory prices. The report states that since Nvidia launched GB200 NVL72, memory prices have risen substantially. In the old memory price system, memory accounted for only 5%-10% of GB200 NVL72’s BOM; in VR200, increased memory content combined with a sharp price rise has raised memory’s share to about 25%-30%, with an estimated absolute value of $2 million—up roughly 435% from the $370,000 of GB300. This change directly squeezes GPU’s share in the BOM—from about 65% in GB200 down to about 51% in VR200. The absolute GPU value rises from about $2.52 million to $3.96 million, an increase of about 57%. Additionally, the report notes another scenario: If hyperscalers opt to procure SOCAMM memory modules themselves, rack ASP will fall from about $7.8 million to about $6.7 million. PCB: Most increased downstream component, new modules are key drivers Among downstream components covered by Morgan Stanley, PCB content value shows the most dramatic growth, increasing about 233% over GB300—from about $35,100 to about $116,700. This jump is driven by multiple factors. Firstly, the introduction of new modules: Rubin system adds ConnectX module PCB (72 per rack at $270 each) and Midplane PCB (18 per rack at $1,500 each), both absent from GB300. These two alone contribute about $46,400 in new content value. Secondly, comprehensive upgrades of existing PCB specs: Compute board goes from GB300's 22-layer HDI PCB to 26-layer, with CCL level lifted from M7 to M8; switch tray PCB upgrades from 24-layer to 32-layer; compute tray adds a 44-layer midplane PCB. Also, compute board’s physical size increases slightly. MLCC & ABF substrate: New modules drive demand beyond expectations For MLCC, Morgan Stanley estimates VR200 rack MLCC content value at about $4,320, up 182% from GB300’s $1,530. The increase comes mainly from two dimensions: 1. MLCC use per board on compute and switch boards rises sharply (compute board from $25 to $90, switch board from $20 to $45); 2. Newly introduced BlueField DPU module (18) and ConnectX Orchid module (72) bring extra demand. Report notes that high-end AI server MLCC demand is now strong, with ODMs actively stocking up to prepare for Rubin rack ramp-up starting second half 2026. For ABF substrate, VR200 content value rises about 82% over GB300—from about $11,200 to $20,300. Driving factors include: - Rubin GPU ABF substrate unit price rising from about $100 to $200 (+100%) - NVSwitch ASIC count per rack up from 18 to 36 - ConnectX chip count up from 36 to 72 Morgan Stanley cites analyst Shoji Sato’s estimate that Rubin GPU ABF substrate unit price is about $200. Power Supply & Liquid Cooling: Power density upgrade drives stable growth For power supply, VR200 rack power supply content value is about $76,000, up about 32% over GB300. Morgan Stanley’s supply chain survey shows that apart from the Vera Rubin platform’s standard 110kW power shelf, at least one U.S. cloud service provider is using HVDC independent power rack in Vera Rubin platform. The report predicts 800V DC architecture will see large-scale adoption in Nvidia’s Rubin Ultra platform (planned for launch in second half 2027). Delta is now collaborating on HVDC platform for ASIC power rack projects with at least three U.S. cloud service provider customers, with initial rollout expected from second half 2026. For liquid cooling, Vera Rubin server rack will use full liquid cooling design (no fans), total cooling content value per rack (excluding CDU) is about $72,100, up about 12% from GB300’s $64,600. The increase mainly comes from more tray manifolds, more quick disconnects (QD), and optimized base component cold plate design. Including CDU, total cooling content value is about $122,100. ODM value-add rises against expectations, absolute profit is key metric Morgan Stanley’s analysis directly challenges mainstream market views. The report points out that the standardization of Rubin compute tray was expected to cause ODM value-add to fall, but bottom-up calculation shows ODM value-add rises about 35%-40%, from GB300’s $108,200 to VR200’s $149,600. The increase is distributed across the rack: compute board assembly/testing (up from about $12,100 to $16,200), compute tray assembly/testing (up from about $28,800 to $32,400), rack overall assembly/testing (up from about $22,400 to $28,800), and added ConnectX/Orchid module assembly/testing (an extra $3,600). This value-add jump matches statements by Wistron management during their Q4 earnings call—management clearly said Rubin ODM dollar value-add would rise. At gross margin level, due to rack ASP soaring, ODM gross margin drops from GB300’s 2.7% to VR200’s 1.9%. But the report stresses investors should focus on absolute dollar profit growth, not declining gross margin. If hyperscalers buy SOCAMM themselves and rack ASP falls to about $6.7 million, ODM gross margin climbs back to about 2.2%. Change of contract manufacturing model & ODM investment ranking The report also tracks a structural trend worth watching: More ODMs are discussing consignment business model. Foxconn first mentioned this in their Q4 2025 earnings call, followed by Quanta in Q1 2026 earnings call, saying some projects will shift to consignment in H2 2026. Morgan Stanley believes this shift will help ease ODM working capital pressure—a positive long-term sign, though it’s not clear how many projects will eventually switch. From a valuation perspective, ODM segment CY27 projected P/E ratio is about 13x, a premium to the 20-year average of 11.5x, but, the report suggests, the risk-reward ratio remains attractive. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The above content is from Chasing Wind Trading Desk. For more detailed interpretations, including real-time analysis, frontline research and other content, please join [Chasing Wind Trading Desk Annual Membership] Risk Warning and Disclaimer Markets involve risks; investments require caution. 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