Morgan Stanley China Robotics Research: Humanoid robots currently lack mature products; composite robots may be the first to see volume growth.
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Morgan Stanley's first research survey of Chinese corporate executives regarding humanoid robots reveals an interesting paradox: although companies are eager to adopt, the products' level of maturity is seriously lacking.
On December 3, according to Hard AI news, Morgan Stanley stated in its latest report that its survey of Chinese corporate executives shows 62% of the surveyed companies plan to deploy humanoid robots in the next three years, demonstrating huge market potential. However, only 23% of respondents are satisfied with current products, with flexibility, functionality, and price being key areas in urgent need of improvement.
More noteworthy is that compound robots (mobile base + robotic arm) will be the first to scale up: 21% of companies plan to deploy them in 2025, and this proportion will rise to 64% by 2027, significantly faster than wheeled (58%) and bipedal (41%) humanoid robots.
The report points out that from an investment perspective, the research reinforces the long-term positive outlook for humanoid robots, but the productization process is still at an early stage and scaling up will take time. Morgan Stanley expects this theme to remain hot in 2026 and suggests investors should prioritize allocating to component suppliers, especially companies with broad applications that can benefit early.
Active Deployment Plans by Companies, Compound Robots Leading
Of the 86 companies surveyed, 53 (62%) are defined as "potential adopters", planning to launch humanoid robot pilots or major projects in the next three years. To be specific, 12% plan to invest in 2025, 29% in 2026, and 21% in 2027.
It is worth noting that companies are generally more willing to deploy wheeled humanoid robots than bipedal robots. 21% of companies plan to specifically deploy wheeled humanoid robots in the next three years, only 3% focus on bipedal robots, and 37% expect to deploy both types simultaneously.
Compound robots are being adopted the fastest: 21% of companies plan deployment in 2025, 48% in 2026, and 64% in 2027.
By comparison, the deployment proportions for wheeled humanoid robots are: 8% in 2025, 37% in 2026, and 58% in 2027;
For bipedal robots: 6% in 2025, 17% in 2026, and 41% in 2027.
The first-mover advantage of compound robots mainly stems from their higher technical maturity. Such products integrate relatively mature robot mobility and manipulation technologies, demonstrating higher efficiency, flexibility, and lower costs in industrial applications. Manufacturing companies are expected to become the main adopters of compound robots.
From the application scenario perspective, logistics & warehousing, manufacturing, and customer service are the most likely sectors to deploy humanoid robots within the next three years, with adoption rates of 85%, 79%, and 70% respectively. These fields share the characteristics of relatively structured environments and less variable tasks, allowing for targeted training and optimization.
Product Maturity Is the Biggest Limiting Factor
Despite strong market demand, insufficient product maturity seriously constrains the large-scale application of humanoid robots.
Morgan Stanley's survey shows that only 23% of respondents are satisfied with current humanoid robot products, 53% are neutral, and 25% are dissatisfied.
Manufacturing companies have a relatively high level of satisfaction with humanoid robot products, while industrial and service companies actually show a net dissatisfaction. This difference reflects the divergent requirements for robot performance across industries.
For "excellent/good" ratings on various performance metrics, only 42%-57% of potential adopters gave a positive evaluation, indicating great room for product improvement. UBTECH stands out in reliability (82%) and functionality (64%), while other vendors have little difference in their ratings.
Companies have articulated clear demands for future product functions. Human-machine collaboration capabilities (70%), IoT integration (57%), fine manipulation capability (57%), and self-learning functionality (49%) are the most anticipated directions for improvement.
Different industries have their own functional priorities: industrial companies focus more on collaboration and fine manipulation capabilities, manufacturing companies lean towards IoT integration and endurance time, while service companies emphasize voice interaction and emotional intelligence.
The report states that cost remains a key hurdle. 92% of respondents believe that the unit price of humanoid robots must fall below RMB 200,000 (about $28,000) for large-scale adoption to be feasible, with 40% of companies seeing RMB 100,000-200,000 as the ideal price band.
Chinese Brands Dominate the Market Landscape
In terms of brand selection, Unitree Robotics is the integrator with the highest engagement, with 60% of potential adopters having interacted with it, followed by CloudMinds (28%), UBTECH (23%) and Midea (17%). All the major brands evaluated are Chinese companies.
Unitree Robotics also leads in expected increased deployment over the next three years (47%), followed by CloudMinds (15%) and UBTECH (11%).
On average, only 42-57% of potential adopters rate each performance metric as "outstanding/good", indicating significant room for improvement. UBTECH excels in reliability (82%) and functionality (64%), while there is little difference among the ratings of other participants.
However, Morgan Stanley points out that current brand preference mainly reflects brand visibility and media exposure, rather than actual performance. For example, although Unitree's humanoid robots lack manufacturing capacity, they still receive the highest attention from companies due to their appearance on the Spring Festival Gala and relatively low starting price.
For procurement decisions, reliability and safety (83%), expected applications and functionality (79%), total cost (75%), and return on investment (64%) are the most important factors for companies. The importance of key component brands and integrator ecosystems in procurement decision-making is relatively low.
Investment Recommendations Favor Component Manufacturers
Based on the research findings, Morgan Stanley maintains a positive assessment of the long-term prospects for humanoid robots, but emphasizes that it is still in the early stage, and large-scale ramp-up will require time.
The firm expects the theme will maintain market attention in 2026, driven mainly by the launch of new products by tech giants such as Tesla, expanded government subsidy policies, and related company IPOs.
In terms of investment strategy, Morgan Stanley prefers component manufacturers with broad application, believing these companies will benefit from industry development earlier.
The firm believes that the advantage of component manufacturers is that both compound robots and humanoid robots require the use of relevant core components. As the entire smart robotics market develops, demand for components will ramp up first, bringing business growth opportunities to these companies.
The survey also shows that companies' expectations for robot products focus on realizing tangible production value, instead of simply seeking brand effects or demonstration value. Companies need to see clear returns on investment and actual impact before they will commit to large-scale investment.
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