Morgan Stanley: Chinese humanoid robots may replicate the "EV miracle"

Morgan Stanley: Chinese humanoid robots may replicate the "EV miracle"

Humanoid robots are crossing the commercialization tipping point from science fiction to reality, and an unprecedented capital rush has begun.

On May 7, according to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, the latest research from Morgan Stanley shows that from early 2026 to now, global humanoid robot venture capital has surpassed the total for all of 2025, drawing industry attention for its explosive growth—the Chinese market contributed about 46% of the year’s venture capital funds, making it the world's most concentrated arena for capital competition.

Morgan Stanley particularly emphasized, China is perfectly replicating its success playbook from the EV sector, through full-industry-chain layout and astounding iteration speed, and is expected to raise its share of global manufacturing to 16.5% by 2030.

Morgan Stanley forecasts, as Tesla's Optimus enters mass production countdown, Meta and tech giants like Jeff Bezos surge into the "physical AI" field with tens of billions of dollars, a massive blue ocean market valued at $7.5 trillion and 1 billion units by 2050 is taking shape. For investors, the most direct signal is: since its establishment in February 2025, Morgan Stanley's "Humanoid Robot 100" index has soared 45%, crushing the S&P 500.

Capital Frenzy: 2026 Venture Funding Surpasses Last Year’s Total—Tech Giants Enter the Race

Wall Street's smart money is pouring madly into the field of physical AI.

Data shows that venture capital for humanoid robots in 2026 has already broken 2025's annual record, with capital inflows in Asia especially rapid, accounting for roughly 46% of annual venture funding.

In April alone, China recorded 41 independent humanoid robot financings, compared to just 16 year-on-year last year.

Mergers and acquisitions and financing by tech giants are accelerating industry shakeout:

  • Meta’s hardware ambitions: Meta acquired US robot foundation model startup ARI (founded in 2025 by Lerrel Pinto and former Nvidia researcher Xiaolong Wang); Meta's CTO stated that humanoid robots are the company’s next “major bet” after AR.
  • Bezos’s $10 billion gamble: Jeff Bezos’s physical AI startup Project Prometheus is reportedly raising $10 billion at a $38 billion valuation, aiming to build AI models for engineering and manufacturing.
  • Tesla's expectation management: Musk continues to see Optimus as "the biggest product ever," preparing to start mass production at Fremont in late 2026, with the Texas Austin plant slated to go online in summer 2027. Though Gen 3 may debut in mid-2026, Musk cautions that as a brand new product, initial ramp-up will be "very slow," and design is still rapidly iterating.

China Replicates the “EV Miracle”: Full Industry Chain Layout & Astonishing Commercialization Speed

Morgan Stanley macro economists state that China’s early lead in the humanoid robot field will propel its global manufacturing and export leadership into a new phase.Just as China bet on EVs ten years ago, it’s now building the entire humanoid robot supply chain, giving it an advantage over US, Japanese, and South Korean rivals reliant on Chinese parts.

Unlike US companies, which focus on high-cost, high-spec prototypes and conduct long tests before mass production, Chinese enterprises launch models faster, using the domestic market as a testing ground. Commercialization is accelerating across the board:

Stunning profitability: Unitree’s IPO prospectus shows strong early monetization; its ASP has fallen to $25,000, but gross margin is as high as 60%, adjusted net margin about 37%, topping all covered Chinese robotics and manufacturing firms.Explosion in mass production data: Dobot and AI² Robotics each reach 1,000 units, UBTECH has 5,000 industrial humanoid robots, and Linkerbot’s dexterous hand production ranges from 50,000 to 100,000 units.Technology and policy resonance: Honor’s “Lightning” robot won the 2026 Beijing Half Marathon with a time of 50:26, breaking the human world record.



Meanwhile, China’s “15th Five-Year Plan” for the first time designates robots as a strategic emerging industry, and all levels of government have set up funds totaling about 187 billion RMB to support the industry capital-wise.



Morgan Stanley predicts this will boost China’s share of global manufacturing from its current 15% to 16.5% by 2030.

In summary, Morgan Stanley’s research presents a clear logic chain: Technical validation → policy catalyst → capital influx → supply chain maturation → mass production → cost reduction → demand explosion — China has followed this path on new energy vehicles, and is now accelerating its repeat on humanoid robots.

$7.5 Trillion Ultimate Blue Ocean: Adoption Explosion & Index Outperformance

Morgan Stanley systematically forecasts long-term size for the global humanoid robot market, based on a six-year replacement cycle and regionally differentiated ASP assumptions:

From TAM perspective, this is not just thematic speculation, but a super track with profound macro impact. Morgan Stanley’s forecast:

By 2036, global humanoid robot adoption will reach 24.4 million units.By 2040, adoption will surge to 137.9 million units.By 2050, global humanoid robot stock will reach 1 billion units; assuming a six-year replacement cycle, annual revenue of the global market will hit an astonishing $7.5 trillion.

By region, by 2050 East Asia and the Pacific (centered on China) is projected to account for 43% of global cumulative adoption; North America for 9%; Europe and Central Asia for 16%.

China is projected to reach cumulative adoption of about 302.3 million units by 2050, far surpassing the US (about 77.7 million) and accounting for roughly 30% of the global total.

Morgan Stanley's equal-weighted "Humanoid Robot 100" index has climbed 45% since its launch on February 6, 2025, outperforming S&P 500, MSCI Europe, and MSCI China indexes.

Among them, Intel (+389%), Samsung Electronics (+319%), and Foxconn Industrial Internet (FII, +224%) were the best-performing constituent stocks.

 

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