Morgan Stanley’s Tesla super bull Jonas sketches out an “extraterrestrial economy”: by 2045, its scale will exceed $110 trillion.

After successfully predicting the rise of Tesla and SpaceX, one of Wall Street’s most renowned automotive analysts is now urging investors to shift their focus from the ground to the sky, and even further into the future.

Adam Jonas, star analyst at Morgan Stanley, is sketching out a brand new trillion-dollar investment blueprint centered around a grand concept he calls the “extraterrestrial economy.” He believes that a new economic sector driven by Physical AI, spanning flying cars, humanoid robots, and brain-computer interfaces, will be the defining opportunity of the next era—just as the internet defined the last.

On October 13, according to The Information, Morgan Stanley appointed Jonas to a newly created position—Global Physical AI and Robotics Strategist. Jonas then made one of his trademark bold predictions: by 2045, the scale of the “extraterrestrial economy” will surpass today’s total global economy of about $110 trillion. Among this, the low-altitude transportation market composed of electric helicopters alone will generate annual revenues exceeding $4 trillion by 2040.

However, this forward-looking vision has also met with skepticism in the market. Jonas admits that some clients think he's “crazy,” looking at him as if he’s a monster. But Jonas isn’t surprised; he firmly believes that the impact of Physical AI on the world will be no less than the invention of electricity, and will reshape nearly every industrial sector from agriculture to aviation.

New Battlefield: From Cars to Physical AI

Jonas’s new role marks a significant shift in his career focus. He defines “Physical AI” as “anything that can move, navigate, or manipulate three-dimensional space.” This

transition officially took effect this August. Previously, as an automotive industry analyst, Jonas had begun frequently asking auto company executives about Physical AI product plans during his research and conference calls.

“Discussing a world without Physical AI is like discussing a world without electricity,” said Jonas.

He believes this is not just about defining markets or the economy, but about charting the course of civilization itself. Morgan Stanley has also released a list of companies called “Humanoid Robots 100,” highlighting its focus on this area.

The Trillion-Dollar Blueprint: The Sky and the ‘Extraterrestrial Economy’

Jonas’s grand predictions are based on his observation of current inefficient use of space. He uses commercial flights as an example for mathematical calculation, noting that at any given time, the total global population in the air is roughly equivalent to the population of Houston.

“Over the entire Earth’s sky, there’s only the population of Kansas City. That’s basically nothing,” he said, believing that this “empty sky” will be the coming battlefield.

He predicts that in the next one to two decades, electric helicopters (i.e., electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft, eVTOLs) will ferry paying passengers along invisible aerial corridors over cities, giving rise to a vibrant new era of low-altitude transportation.

History Repeats: From Criticism to Spotlight

Jonas is no stranger to current skepticism. He recalls that in 2011, when he publicly predicted Tesla’s stock would double to $70, the industry generally considered him “complacent.”

Similarly, when he began researching SpaceX and self-driving cars, clients reacted by saying “that’s crazy.” Nevertheless, these seemingly radical views were ultimately validated by the market.

Jonas believes history is repeating itself. He notes that while some clients only care about earnings for this week or quarter, there are already those starting to build trading strategies based on his long-term vision. “In a sense, we’re trying to shock people’s brains,” he said.

He believes that, over time, clients will gradually understand and accept this new trend, just as they eventually accepted his views on Tesla and autonomous driving. Jonas’s optimism is not pure speculation; he points out that a series of real-world developments are already supporting his theory.

According to reports, electric air taxi developers Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation are expected to obtain federal certification next year and begin commercial passenger flights.

In the robotics field, Tesla, Google-backed Apptronik, and China’s XPeng have all released more advanced humanoid robots and plan to commercialize them soon.

Additionally, Waymo and Tesla’s self-driving taxis have been deployed in more US cities, and the widespread use of drones on the battlefield in Ukraine has completely changed the face of modern warfare.

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