Moutai's "January Battle Report" and the Truth About Demand

On the eve of the Spring Festival, the price trend of Feitian Moutai once again rode a roller coaster. Around early February, there was intense volatility in market prices: last week, the price jumped 150 yuan per bottle in just two days, then dropped 160 yuan per bottle over a weekend, and today it rebounded again to above 1,600 yuan. This rare fluctuation not only reflects the channel's sensitivity but also draws market attention to the digital hub "iMoutai," which is deeply reshaping the Moutai ecosystem. Recently, iMoutai released its operations report for January 2026: 6.28 million new users, monthly active users exceeding 15.31 million, more than 2.12 million completed orders, of which the Feitian 53% vol 500ml Kweichow Moutai accounted for over 1.43 million orders. With the release of this data, some puzzles that have lingered in the market are becoming increasingly clear. First question: How much has iMoutai increased its revenue? If we conservatively estimate an average of 4 bottles per order for standard Moutai, iMoutai’s incremental distribution in January may have approached 2,700 tons, which at a price of 1,499 yuan per bottle would amount to roughly 8 billion yuan in revenue. Adding the contribution of non-standard products such as zodiac and premium Moutai, iMoutai’s total estimated revenue in January exceeds 10 billion yuan. Furthermore, the rate of distribution by iMoutai throughout January is likely to have become increasingly steep. In the first three days of January, only 100,000 users completed transactions on the platform; by January 9, cumulative transactions had reached 400,000 users over nine days. Looking at full-month data of over 1.45 million consumers, the average daily transaction users in mid to late January may have reached 78,000. Compared with Moutai’s annual production of about 50,000 tons and about 100 million bottles distributed to the market, iMoutai’s 2.12 million completed orders in January means its annualized processing capability could now cover about 24 million bottles. This level of penetration signals that iMoutai has officially moved beyond a digital pilot stage and emerged as the core direct-sales engine supporting Moutai’s performance flexibility. Second question: Has the channel been “impacted”? From a traditional perspective, such large-scale direct sales expansion is often seen as an erosion of channel interests. But judging from market feedback in January, this concern is being replaced by a new "symbiotic logic." Wang Xuewei, a partner at Siyuan Hengyue, reports that the recent batch price of Feitian in full cases is 1,600–1,630 yuan, up roughly 60 yuan from before. “Currently, about 25% of payments for the Spring Festival ‘start strong’ have been completed. Most distributors have received goods and are reporting positive sales growth, with some showing double-digit growth.” The reason, despite the 1,499 yuan direct-sale price objectively squeezing traditional profit margins, is that iMoutai essentially serves to direct customer traffic to offline stores. Additionally, due to reforms that cancelled the effect of mandatory bundling with non-standard products, channel operators are generally taking a relatively positive attitude toward the current marketization process. Third question: Has real “demand” emerged? The recent wide swings in batch prices essentially reflect a fierce clash of bullish and bearish sentiment during the Spring Festival window. Nevertheless, with standard Feitian deliveries up year-on-year and faster shipping than usual, yet prices still rebounding and stabilizing quickly, this may well confirm demand is better than anticipated. Ouyang Yu, an analyst at Huachuang Securities, pointed out in a research report, based on channel feedback, that pre-holiday Feitian shipments by distributors reached nearly 33% — faster than the 30% at the same time last year. Given that iMoutai has distributed some of the direct-sale Feitian, it is projected that Feitian’s sales during the Spring Festival may show a year-on-year increase of around 30%. Wang Xuewei further analyzed that the 2026 Spring Festival offers multiple structural positives: First is the calendar effect, with the holiday coming later this year and lasting longer, giving a more ample preparation period for sales; second is optimization of inventory structure. While distributors still have some inventory, retail terminal inventories, affected by related anti-corruption policies in 2025, are currently kept at relatively low levels. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks, investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the individual investment goals, financial situation, or needs of specific users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their particular circumstance. If you invest accordingly, you are responsible for the outcome.