Much thunder, little rain! Only a quarter of Trump’s tariff threats were enacted, and more than forty percent were withdrawn.
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After returning to the White House, U.S. President Trump has issued a flurry of tariff threats, but the latest analysis by Bloomberg Economics shows that only about 25% of these threats were actually implemented, with more than 40% eventually withdrawn or not put into effect. This data reveals the core feature of Trump’s tariff strategy: it serves more as a bargaining chip rather than concrete action, a consensus already formed among markets and business executives.
According to CCTV and Xinhua reports, within less than three weeks, Trump has issued four rounds of tariff threats targeting Iran’s trade partners, Greenland supporters, Canada, and South Korea. In the latest round, on January 26, he announced a 25% tariff increase on products such as South Korean automobiles. On the 27th, South Korea’s presidential office responded that it had not yet received any official notification from the U.S., and the South Korean government held an inter-departmental meeting that morning to discuss countermeasures. Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan will soon visit the U.S. for consultations. According to CCTV News, the South Korean side is closely monitoring the situation.
Unlike before, financial markets and business executives have reacted calmly to Trump’s latest warnings. Investors generally regard these statements as pressure tactics instead of policies actually likely to be implemented, and analysts have not rushed to revise their growth forecasts for the targeted countries.
A Huge Gap Between Threats and Actions
According to reports, Bloomberg Economics’ Nicole Gorton-Caratelli and Chris Kennedy tracked 49 tariff threats or trade investigations launched by Trump from the November 2024 election to January 26 this year (excluding the latest threat against South Korea). The data shows that more than half of the threats were not fully executed.
Among these 49 threats, about 25% were fully implemented, 43% were withdrawn or have yet to take effect, and the remaining are still under investigation. From a timeline perspective, those actually implemented or under investigation were mostly concentrated between February and September last year. By the end of last year, as concerns over inflation impacted his approval ratings, Trump’s tariff threats clearly decreased.
Bloomberg Economics points out that Trump tends to withdraw the most high-profile threats, especially those that would significantly raise the actual U.S. tariff rate or threaten trade truces. "This pattern isn’t perfect, but overall, we see that Trump pulls back the most attention-grabbing threats," the two researchers wrote in their report.
This strategy has gradually led the market to conclude that Trump’s tariff threats are mainly aimed at gaining leverage in negotiations or changing the other party’s behavior, rather than truly imposing punitive measures. Threats that would normally unsettle investors and make CEOs nervous now find it hard to stir up any waves.
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