Multinational escort: Can Trump "settle" the Strait of Hormuz?

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Trump vows to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which was blocked by Iran, but military experts warn that whether by naval escort or ground capture, thousands of troops and several months would be required, and the threat would still not be completely eliminated—the confidence of shipping and insurance industries is the ultimate threshold for restoring normal oil flow.

Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have pledged multiple times to send warships to escort oil tankers through the strait. On Thursday, Trump said the escort mission would commence "soon"; on Friday, he ordered a Marine Expeditionary Unit with attack aircraft, ships, and around 2,200 Marines to the Middle East; on Saturday, he used social media to urge France, the UK, and other countries to send warships to assist. The White House stated that all options, including deploying ground troops, are under consideration.

However, so far, the US has not dispatched warships to the strait, which is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. Navy officials warn that Iran's drones and anti-ship missiles could turn the waters into a "killing zone" for American sailors. Despite weeks of US-Israeli joint strikes, Iran's navy and military forces have suffered heavy losses, yet Iranian commanders continue to demonstrate their attack capabilities.

According to Lloyd's List Intelligence, even if an escort mission begins, constraints in safety measures and available warships will reduce strait traffic to 10% of normal levels, and over 600 international trade ships are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf. At this rate, clearing the backlog would take months.

Escort Operations: Costly and Risky

Effective escorting requires about two warships per oil tanker, or about 12 warships for a convoy of 5-10 tankers, to form a sufficient air defense system. The short engagement distances in the strait make intercepting incoming missiles and drones much more difficult.

Bryan Clark, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and veteran naval officer, estimates that besides warships, the escort mission would require at least 12 MQ-9 "Reaper" drones to continuously patrol and strike Iranian missile and drone launch sites along the coastline. "This means thousands of soldiers and sailors, as well as considerable funding, and it may last for months," Clark said. Other military experts recommend including Marine Corps AV-8B Harrier jump jets and similar aircraft in the escort support system.

Deploying warships for escort duties means sacrificing their offensive capabilities and broader missile defense functions. Even so, the risks remain significant—Iran's anti-ship cruise missiles are highly mobile, able to launch "hit-and-run" attacks that can severely damage or even sink warships and merchant vessels.

Ground Capture: Larger Scale, Exponentially Greater Risk

A more expansive option is to raid or occupy Iran's southern coastal areas, cutting off Iran's ability to fire at ships in the strait. This could require thousands of ground troops and would face months of fighting against a regime battling for survival.

The typical approach for such operations would be large-scale airstrikes along the coast, followed by amphibious assaults in the rugged terrain of southern Iran by Marines. Iran may respond with a "cat and mouse" strategy, quickly redeploying after US troops withdraw; sustaining a long-term control of the region would essentially be an invasion of Iran.

Former senior advisor to the State Department and US intelligence agencies, Daniel Byman, pointed out: "If you initially deploy only limited special forces, do you need more troops to protect them? You must decide whether to cut your losses or escalate." Former head of Israeli Defense Intelligence's Iran division, Danny Citrinowicz, emphasized that every step of the operation needs ample time—planning takes time, weakening Iran's capabilities takes time, dismantling the Revolutionary Guard's command and control system also takes time.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard currently has about 190,000 troops, and its elite Quds Force has long supported proxy armed groups in the Middle East, with a history of deadly attacks on US forces in neighboring countries such as Iraq. Moreover, even controlling the strait's coastline cannot fully eliminate the threat—Iran possesses longer-range missiles and drones capable of launching attacks from deeper inland. This week, Iran attacked tankers hundreds of miles north of the strait, near Iraq.

Even if escort missions proceed, traffic will be less than 10% of normal levels

Military measures might suppress some threats, but convincing the shipping industry to use the strait corridor again is another matter. Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Affairs, Mick Mulroy, said: "You have to make insurance companies and shipping companies believe that transit is safe enough."

According to a prior article from WallstreetCN, Lloyd's List surveyed eight security experts from naval and commercial operations who believe that even if an escort plan is implemented, the number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz daily would be strictly limited to below 10% of normal levels.

The report noted that under normal circumstances, around 45 to 50 oil tankers pass through the strait daily. A basic escort plan would require 8 to 10 destroyers, escorting 5 to 10 commercial ships at a time. Due to the strait's narrowness, two-way simultaneous escorting is nearly impossible. Initial plans will prioritize outbound transport to ease the export backlog in the Gulf region.

Jane's Intelligence senior naval platform analyst Mike Plunket said:

"We're obviously not talking about the scale of the WWII Atlantic convoy fleet, because the waterways here are extremely restricted. You simply can't have 30 tankers passing through at once, nor enough escort ships to protect them. Realistically, it's about four or five tankers with two or three escort ships at a time."

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