Muse got off to a great start, but how long can Meta keep up the good news?

Meta's new personal AI agent, Muse, became an instant hit upon its launch. However, with Amazon blocking it, privacy controversies, and competitive threats escalating simultaneously, it remains to be seen whether the product can translate its initial momentum into a lasting advantage.

Since its launch on September 8, Muse has been downloaded over 2.5 million times and has consistently ranked first on the Apple App Store charts in the US since last Friday, driving Meta's stock price up 11% on Monday. After trading sideways with a slight dip on Tuesday, it continued to rise by 1% on Wednesday.

(Meta's stock price chart this week)

Truist Securities estimates that Muse could contribute $28.5 billion in incremental revenue to Meta by 2030, giving investors a glimpse into the potential return on the company's multi-billion dollar AI investments.

However, the product's commercialization has already encountered early obstacles. Amazon recently blocked Muse's access to its shopping platform and its ability to place orders on behalf of users, citing "unauthorized" access. Analysts warn that competitors will also launch similar products in the near future.

Privacy concerns constitute a core obstacle

Muse's value proposition lies in its deep integration with users' lives—including email, text messages, and calendars—but this is also its biggest weakness.

According to a survey of U.S. consumers by Oppenheimer & Co., only 8% of respondents were willing to hand over their account passwords to Meta, while 30% were willing to hand them over to Google.

Alexandr Wang, head of Meta AI, stated before the product launch that the company's greater concern was the agent accidentally leaking user information or mistakenly deleting important emails, rather than the AI system going out of control. Meta emphasized in its statement that Muse's security architecture uses independent virtual computers to run each agent.

However, analysts believe that security risks still exist. Truist analyst Youssef Squali stated:

If a large-scale hacker attack occurs tomorrow, resulting in some agents stealing user credentials or credit card information, it will have a negative impact on the entire industry.

He also pointed out that it remains questionable whether Muse can maintain its lead:

Judging from the patterns in this field, given a few weeks, Google and OpenAI could replicate everything that exists.

It is currently unclear how many users who have downloaded Muse have granted Meta full account access.

Amazon's blockade reveals the game of ecosystems.

Amazon's countermeasures reveal deeper business conflicts in the implementation of AI agents.

Amazon stated that it was unaware beforehand that Muse would access its platform and make purchases on behalf of users, and explicitly stated that it does not authorize such activities. An Amazon spokesperson said:

We believe that third-party applications that represent users in shopping at other merchants should operate transparently and respect the decisions of service providers regarding their involvement.

Analysts point out that Amazon's concerns go beyond this. Amazon's shopping platform boasts a massive advertising business; if AI agents replace users in making purchasing decisions, direct-to-human advertising exposure will significantly decrease, thereby impacting its business model.

Raymond James technology analyst Josh Beck characterized website access permissions as a "major hurdle," stating that major platforms will only open up cooperation if they believe AI proxies can bring sufficient incremental traffic without causing a net negative impact.

Meta has already established partnerships with brands such as Shopify, Instacart, and Dick's Sporting Goods, but the barriers between it and e-commerce giant Amazon are unlikely to be broken down in the short term.

Competitive Landscape: How Long Can First-Mover Advantage Be Maintained?

Meta has an early advantage in this AI agent race, but its window of opportunity may be limited.

As the parent company of Instagram and Facebook, Meta possesses massive user data and almost unparalleled distribution channels. Currently, the only comparable competitor in the market is the AI agent launched by the startup Instinct, which is still in the invitation-only stage.

Analysts predict that OpenAI will release a consumer-facing AI agent product within the next one to two weeks, and Apple is also considered to be entering the market eventually.

Regarding Google, Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski pointed out that Google has ample computing power reserves and can quickly allocate resources to create products of the same level. Muse, on the other hand, consumes a particularly large amount of computing power because each agent runs independently on a virtual computer.

Gawrelski stated:

The timing window is crucial, and these assistants will continue to evolve as consumers learn how to interact with them and how to better schedule agents.

Beck also maintains a cautious attitude:

It is too early to say what the future holds for this field, but everyone has already begun to move in that direction.

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