Musk confirms: Cybercab has started production, with ramp-up on the production line starting slow and then speeding up.

```

Tesla presses the mass production button for Cybercab.

On April 24, Musk announced on the X platform that Cybercab production has officially started. Previously, he confirmed during the Q1 2026 financial report conference call that the model has started production at the Texas Gigafactory. Musk also warned, due to the constraints of a brand-new supply chain, initial output will be “extremely slow,” and exponential growth is expected only by the end of the year.

It is worth noting that Tesla has circumvented the annual production limit for autonomous vehicles imposed by U.S. regulatory agencies through compliant self-certification. Vice President of Vehicle Engineering Lars Moravy clearly stated that Cybercab is not subject to NHTSA’s annual exemption limit of 2,500 autonomous vehicles, clearing regulatory obstacles for large-scale expansion in the future.

However, the core selling point of this steering-wheel-less model—unattended autonomous driving—has not yet been realized. Musk expects that full unattended autonomous driving will be rolled out to users’ vehicles in the fourth quarter of this year, but Tesla has a long history of delays regarding the FSD timeline, and core uncertainties for investors remain.

Production ramp-up: Early S-curve, acceleration before year-end

The first mass-produced steering-wheel-less Cybercab rolled off the line in February this year, but continuous production was only officially launched this month. Musk admitted that the new product, combined with the new supply chain, will have a production ramp-up that follows a typical “slow then fast” pattern. He stated: “You should expect that the initial production of Cybercab and Semi will be very slow, but will then accelerate and see exponential growth before year-end.”

Currently, Tesla is producing both steering-wheel-less and steering-wheel-equipped versions in parallel. Musk positions Cybercab as Tesla’s core volume model in the long term because “90% of driven miles only have one or two occupants,” and he stated that in the future “the vast majority of production should be Cybercab.”

Cybercab is Tesla’s driverless taxi, featuring a two-door coupe design and equipped with gullwing doors. Semi is Tesla’s electric semi-truck aimed at freight scenarios.

Circumventing NHTSA production limits via self-certification

Through the self-certification pathway, Tesla has successfully sidestepped NHTSA’s annual production exemption limit for autonomous vehicles, clearing regulatory obstacles for Cybercab’s large-scale expansion.

NHTSA provides an exemption procedure for vehicles that do not comply with the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS), with each exemption capped at 2,500 vehicles per year. Companies like Waymo and Cruise have historically been restricted by this limit, hindering their ability to scale production.

According to media reports, when asked whether the 2,500-unit limit applies to Cybercab, Vice President of Vehicle Engineering Lars Moravy replied with a single word: "No."

This confidence comes from Cybercab’s design logic. The model was designed from the outset to fully comply with current FMVSS standards, so it does not require any exemptions and uses the same self-certification process as the Toyota Camry and Ford F-150. Drone aerial footage from Giga Texas shows that the off-line Cybercab vehicles already have federal compliance labels covering safety, bumper, and anti-theft standards.

The practical significance of this pathway is: Even if the SELF DRIVE Act currently under review by the U.S. Congress raises the exemption limit from 2,500 units to 90,000 units, it is basically irrelevant to Tesla—Cybercab's production expansion is not bound by exemption limits from the beginning to the end.

Three major bottlenecks limiting Cybercab commercialization

Although the obstacles to capacity expansion have been cleared, the technological foundation of Cybercab's commercial model is far from solid. This model is entirely built on unattended autonomous driving technology, which is not yet ready. Musk admitted during the financial report call that the software still has issues, including vehicles "hesitating to move" or being stuck in infinite loops.

Media reports state that Tesla's current supervised Robotaxi fleet has an accident rate about four times that of human drivers—one accident every 57,000 miles, while the human driver baseline is one accident every 229,000 miles.

Meanwhile, the Cybercab project has seen a significant loss of management since February: Vehicle Project Manager Victor Nechita left just days after the first mass-produced car rolled off the line; OTA and ride-hailing infrastructure director Thomas Dmytryk departed after 11 years on the job; final assembly director Mark Lupkey left in March. Currently, none of Tesla's mass-produced models have their original project manager still in post.

Before the realization of unattended autonomous driving, Cybercab can only be used for Tesla’s limited geofenced Robotaxi pilot projects, with actual deployment space for mass-produced vehicles still constrained.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks, investment needs caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account any individual user's unique investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether all opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investments made based on this article are at your own risk. ```