Musk predicts double-digit growth for the U.S. economy within 18 months, with AI as the key driving force.

Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, estimates that the U.S. economy will enter a period of double-digit growth in the next 12 to 18 months, with applied artificial intelligence seen as the main driving force.

On Wednesday, Musk posted on the X platform, stating that if applied intelligence is taken as a proxy indicator for U.S. economic growth, “triple-digit growth may be possible in about five years.” The timing of these remarks coincides with strong U.S. economic data.

According to Wallstreetcn, the annualized GDP growth rate for the third quarter reached 4.3%, the fastest pace in two years. Federal Reserve officials have listed AI data center investment as one of the key factors for raising economic growth expectations for 2026.

Meanwhile, major Wall Street institutions have been raising their forecasts for market performance. Morgan Stanley predicts that the S&P 500 index will achieve double-digit percentage gains in 2026. Goldman Sachs believes the global stock market is entering the “optimism stage” of a bull market, with earnings in 2026 expected to continue to support the rally; including dividends, the total return is projected to reach 15%.

AI Investment Drives Growth Expectations

Fed officials rank AI data center spending alongside consumer spending and fiscal aid as multiple factors supporting the expectation of stronger growth in 2026.

Analysts believe the widespread adoption and application of AI technology is expected to significantly improve productivity and innovation capability, thereby driving the U.S. economy into a higher growth range (10% or above).

Musk has repeatedly linked economic growth to the use of the “applied intelligence” he refers to in his businesses.

At Tesla, he said he is focused on developing the next generation of AI chips to support autonomous driving systems. At SpaceX, the company continues to expand its satellite network and launch capabilities through Starlink, aiming to meet the rapidly growing needs for data connectivity and transmission worldwide.

This week, U.S. third-quarter GDP data was released, showing the fastest expansion in two years with an annualized growth rate of 4.3%, mainly driven by strong consumer spending and stable business policies.

The report, delayed by the government shutdown, shows that even though consumer confidence dropped in December and factory output was flat in November, resilience persisted throughout midyear. Both government and central bank data highlight the robustness of consumer spending and sustained business investment.

Goldman Sachs: 13% Global Stock Market Return in 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, Goldman Sachs’ core advice is: “Diversification is a must.”

Based on research into more than 50 years of U.S. stock market cycles, Goldman Sachs points out that the stock market generally evolves through four stages: Despair, Hope, Growth, and Optimism.

Currently, the market is in the last part of the cycle—the “Optimism stage.” According to Goldman’s prediction model, weighted price returns for global stock markets in 2026 are projected at 13% in USD terms, and including dividends, total returns will reach 15%.

Since the current stock market is, in the firm’s view, dominated geographically by the U.S., sector-wise by technology, and by individual stocks by American mega-cap companies, this high concentration is both a driver and a risk. Goldman Sachs recommends investors adopt the following strategies:

Stay invested: The bull market isn’t over yet.Diversify across regions: Pay more attention to emerging markets (EM).Diversify across styles: Combine select growth stocks with value stocks. In non-U.S. markets, value stocks often outperform growth stocks, partly because sectors like finance and mining have successfully shifted from “value traps” to value creators.Diversify across industries: Make use of the expansion in tech capex, positioning in “old economy” infrastructure sectors that benefit from AI development.Focus on alpha returns: Take advantage of potentially low stock correlations to capture single-stock opportunities.

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