Musk shares group photo of Optimus mass production team, admits initial production is "extremely slow": This is not like making cars.

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While Musk showcased progress in mass production of Tesla’s humanoid robot, he also applied the brakes to external optimistic expectations.

On Wednesday, Musk responded on social platform X to a user’s speculation about Optimus V3 being produced ahead of schedule, stating clearly, "Optimus production will be extremely slow in the early stages, because everything is brand new. This is not like making cars."

The day before, he had just posted a photo with the Optimus mass production team inside Tesla’s Fremont factory. In the photo, Musk stands with arms crossed, side by side with workers wearing hard hats and reflective vests, sparking widespread speculation about the progress of mass production.

Musk’s statement directly suppressed expectations of "advanced mass production," but also reconfirmed substantial progress at the Fremont factory. For Tesla investors, the pace of Optimus mass production together with the Q2 vehicle delivery data to be released Thursday will constitute key variables affecting stock prices in the near term.

Refuting "advanced mass production" theory, S-curve ramp-up imminent

Musk’s response was directed at X user Doctor Jack’s inference: that the reason Tesla delayed public demonstrations of Optimus V3 was because engineers realized mass production progress had exceeded expectations and did not want competitors to copy the design. He predicted that Tesla would showcase many functional robots at a major event and announce that meaningful mass production had started.

Musk’s reply partially denied this "advanced production" claim. He had previously stated that Optimus mass production would follow the classic S-curve path—low initial output, then gradual acceleration. He insisted that the focus in the early stage was on streamlining the assembly process, not on production scale.

The complexity of Optimus mass production has structural underlying causes: The robot contains about 10,000 individual components that must work together, and any link could cause a production bottleneck, which is fundamentally different from the mature system of car manufacturing.

Fremont’s transformation, Texas super-factory under construction

Although the pace is slow, Tesla’s capacity deployment is making substantial progress. Tesla has converted parts of the Fremont factory’s lines for initial assembly of the third-generation Optimus robot, including lines previously used to produce Model S and Model X. Trial production is expected to start this summer in Fremont.

Meanwhile, a larger second factory dedicated to Optimus is under construction at Giga Texas. Large-scale mass production is expected to begin around the summer of 2027, and Tesla's long-term goal is an annual capacity of 10 million units.

Tesla and Musk have positioned Optimus as the company’s "most important product ever," believing its long-term value may ultimately surpass the electric vehicle business itself.

Besides progress on Optimus, Tesla’s vehicle business results for the current quarter will be revealed Thursday along with the Q2 delivery report. According to Benzinga, investor Gary Black of The Future Fund predicts deliveries of about 410,000, above consensus expectations; Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki said Tesla performed "steadily" this quarter and expects the price increase of oil, related to the Iran war, will drive more consumers to switch to electric vehicles.

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