Nearly 200 billion Hong Kong dollars! Before the end of the year, Hong Kong stocks face the test of a “wave of lock-up expiries.”

Nearly 200 billion Hong Kong dollars! Before the end of the year, Hong Kong stocks face the test of a “wave of lock-up expiries.”

Hong Kong's stock market is facing profit-taking pressure, as the intensive expiry of restricted shares before the end of the year will release about HKD 193.8 billion worth of tradable stocks. **From this Wednesday until the end of the year, 28 companies that went public in Hong Kong in the past year will see their shares unlocked, as the sales restrictions for early investors, management, and controlling shareholders expire. Based on Tuesday’s closing prices, the total value of these unlocked shares reaches USD 24.9 billion.** This wave of unlocked shares coincides with rising global risk aversion and weakening market momentum, adding pressure to Hong Kong stocks. Although the Hang Seng Index has still gained 29% this year, it is experiencing its largest single-week decline in a month, and market sentiment is weighed down by uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy. (image: Hang Seng Index has gained 29% this year) Raymond Wong, First Vice President of Renyun Family Office (Hong Kong) Limited, stated: > The expiry of share lockups is a clear risk factor facing Hong Kong stocks before year-end. After this year’s steep rise, profit-taking by investors is normal, whether at the individual stock level or for the overall market. ## IPO boom pushes up unlocked share scale Hong Kong's IPO market is experiencing its most active year in four years. According to Bloomberg Industry Research estimates, total fundraising in 2025 may exceed USD 40 billion. This IPO boom directly increases the size of unlocked shares at year-end. Bloomberg data shows that the average price of H-shares of the 28 companies soon facing share unlocks has risen 95% since listing. Among them, Nanjing Tairui Biotechnology Co., Ltd. leads with a cumulative surge of about 1,440% this year. A large number of new stocks being listed injects vitality into the market, but also means that a huge amount of restricted shares will become tradable in the short term. The unlocking of these shares at a time when market momentum is weakening makes the timing rather sensitive. ## H-share premium stocks face more pressure Kenny Ng, Strategist at China Everbright Securities International, points out that companies dual-listed on both A and H markets, with a premium in H-shares, are expected to face particularly clear downward pressure. Currently, dual-listed companies maintaining an H-share premium include China’s battery giant CATL and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine. For such companies, the valuation advantage of H-shares relative to A-shares may prompt unlocking shareholders to first reduce their Hong Kong positions, thereby intensifying correction pressure on H-shares. This structural pressure highlights the differentiated impact of unlocking waves on different types of listed companies, and investors should pay attention to individual stocks' listing structures and valuation disparities. **Risk Warning and Disclaimer** The market carries risks, and investment should be approached cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account any individual user's particular investment objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate to their specific situation. Investment decisions based on this article are made at your own risk.