New Federal Reserve News Agency: March core CPI slightly below expectations, but energy shocks still lie ahead.

“Federal Reserve mouthpiece” Nick Timiraos stated that the U.S. core CPI for March increased by 0.196% month-on-month, slightly below expectations. However, a single month’s data is insufficient to change the overall judgment. The Federal Reserve hopes to see energy prices fall and to build more confidence in the end of tariff transmission effects. It is worth noting that more energy-related impacts (such as airfares and transport prices) may still lie ahead.

Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that the CPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month in March, the largest monthly increase since June 2022, and accelerated to 3.3% year-on-year, the highest level since 2024. Gasoline prices saw the largest monthly increase on record since 1967, contributing nearly three-quarters of the monthly gain.

Core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, below expectations of 0.3%, bringing some comfort to the market and increasing short-term bets on interest rate cuts. However, economists warn that the secondary effects of the energy shock have not been fully reflected in core inflation, and April data faces further upside risk.

High-priced aviation fuel will drive up airfare, and Delta Air Lines has already issued a warning; rising diesel costs will pass through to highway transport, thereby pushing up the prices of consumer goods; higher fertilizer prices are expected to increase grocery bills; the U.S. Postal Service has also warned that it will raise rates.