Next up is Cuba? A Russian oil tanker creates cracks in Trump's Cuba blockade.

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A Russian oil tanker carrying 730,000 barrels of crude oil is quietly breaking the Trump administration's two-month fuel blockade against Cuba—a loophole that was in fact opened by Trump himself.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the tanker, named "Anatoly Kolodkin," is expected to arrive at the northern Cuban port of Matanzas on Tuesday, bringing brief respite to the island nation deep in an energy crisis. On Sunday, Trump stated he has "no problem" with the oil delivery, saying "they have to survive." Meanwhile, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum immediately announced that Mexico will seek to resume oil exports to Cuba. This string of statements has led to a clear loosening of the blockade line previously built by the Trump administration through tariff threats.

However, White House officials emphasized that this clearance is a one-time case and does not represent a policy shift. Just a few days ago, according to Xinhua News Agency, Trump declared in Miami on March 27 that "Cuba is next," listing Cuba as the next pressure target after Venezuela and Iran. Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister De Cossio also stated that the Cuban military is preparing for a possible U.S. military invasion.

Cracks in the blockade: Why did Trump clear this tanker?

According to reports, the Trump administration decided to clear the Russian tanker because the situation in Cuba has deteriorated faster than Washington expected. The report notes that people familiar with the negotiations between the two countries said, at the same time, the U.S. government is deeply mired in a war with Iran and is stretched thin.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Monday: "Cuba’s dysfunctional economy can only be repaired through profound political and leadership changes." This statement was meant to stress that allowing the tanker is not a sign of policy softening, but a one-off humanitarian exception.

However, the move has triggered a chain reaction diplomatically. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum immediately stated that Mexico has the right to supply fuel to Cuba for humanitarian or commercial reasons, and revealed that private companies have contacted Mexico's national oil company, hoping to sell fuel to Cuba's private sector.

Meanwhile, according to CCTV News, Russian presidential press secretary Peskov stated at a briefing on March 30 that Russia is willing to continue supplying oil to Cuba, and revealed that the issue of supplying Russian oil products to Cuba was specifically mentioned during U.S.-Russia contacts. Peskov emphasized that Russia regards providing assistance to oil-starved Cuba as its mission.

How deep is the crisis: Cuba is close to economic paralysis

The arrival of this tanker highlights the severity of Cuba's current energy crisis. Reports state that fuel shortages have left the streets of Cuban towns almost deserted, public transport largely halted, universities forced to send students home, and hospitals postponing all surgeries except emergencies.

Cuba's power grid is a legacy of Soviet-era infrastructure, which has long been neglected. According to CCTV News, since October 2024, a combination of power facility failures and hurricanes has caused several nationwide blackouts, with daily rolling outages sometimes lasting 20 hours or more.

Jorge Piñón, a Cuba energy expert at the University of Texas, told the Wall Street Journal that the relief from this batch of crude oil will be very limited, and it may take several weeks before it is refined into finished oil and delivered to the areas most in need. "I don't see a second tanker on the horizon," he said.

Private fuel plan: an alternative path yet to be implemented

Beyond the blockade, the Trump administration is trying to advance an alternative plan to bypass Cuba's state apparatus and deliver fuel directly to the private sector.

The report says that in late February this year, the U.S. Treasury Department announced it would allow some licensed U.S. companies to sell fuel to Cuba's private sector or for humanitarian purposes, provided that funds must bypass the Cuban state-controlled banking system.

Miami fuel trading company Vanguard Energy is prepared to send 200,000 barrels of diesel and gasoline to Cuba every month and has applied for relevant licenses, covering supply to foreign embassies in Havana, humanitarian organizations, and Cuba’s public hospital system.

However, this plan is currently facing substantial obstacles. The report notes that two stainless steel fuel tanks belonging to the U.S. Embassy in Havana have been stuck at Mariel port for weeks without delivery, even raising concerns that the U.S. might reduce its diplomatic staff in Cuba. The Cuban foreign ministry condemned the U.S. diesel request as "shameless" in a diplomatic note, accusing the American blockade of harming the Cuban people.

Rick Herrero, director of Washington think tank Cuba Study Group, stated that if the relevant agreement is approved, it would initiate a certain degree of fuel market privatization in Cuba. But Secretary of State Rubio was cautious in his wording, warning that if the private sector is found to be "playing tricks," the relevant licenses will be revoked immediately, and he made it clear that private fuel sales are not a comprehensive solution to Cuba's problems.

"The scale of Cuba’s private sector is very small—it exists, but it’s very small. This alone is far from enough to cope with the large-scale, deep-seated challenges they face."

Tug-of-war between tough posturing and real-world pressures

Even as the tanker is cleared, the Trump administration has not toned down its hardline stance toward Cuba.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump declared at a meeting in Miami on March 27 that "Cuba is next," listing it as the next target after Venezuela and Iran. Earlier this month, he also said he would "solve Iran first, then Cuba."

Cuba has responded. According to Xinhua, Cuba’s deputy foreign minister De Cossio said in an interview on U.S. media that the Cuban military is preparing for a possible U.S. military invasion.

The report notes that Cuban Deputy Prime Minister Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga announced earlier this month that Havana will allow overseas Cubans to invest and hold businesses on the island—a proposal that was immediately opposed by the politically influential Cuban-American exile community.

Analysis indicates that the game around Cuba is playing out on multiple fronts simultaneously: military threats, energy blockades, private sector reform experiments, and diplomatic maneuvering among the major powers.

The docking of a Russian tanker has neither ended the game nor changed its direction, but it does clearly reveal the tension and contradictions within Trump’s Cuba policy.

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