"Next up is Cuba!" Trump threatened: Reach an agreement quickly, or we'll take action.

The Trump administration is making Cuba its next target for pressure, following Venezuela and Iran. By imposing an oil blockade and economic sanctions, it has pushed Cuba to the brink of an energy crisis and issued a clear ultimatum: either reach an agreement soon, or face being "controlled".

According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump said on the 15th that the United States might quickly reach an agreement with Cuba or take other actions. "Cuba also wants to reach an agreement. I think both sides will quickly reach an agreement or do what we have to do." Trump said during an interview with reporters aboard the presidential plane, Air Force One. "We are talking to Cuba, but we will deal with Iran first, then Cuba."

Cuban President Díaz-Canel publicly acknowledged last Friday that the two sides had held direct talks, aimed at "finding solutions to bilateral differences through dialogue," confirming widespread previous reports about secret contacts between senior Trump administration officials and Cuban counterparts. Díaz-Canel stated that negotiations are still in the "first stage," with both sides setting the agenda.

Cuba is currently facing an unprecedented energy crisis. According to reports, an internal telegram from the U.S. Embassy in Havana this Monday showed that Cuba has an energy shortfall of about 60%, with some communities experiencing power outages for over 30 consecutive hours, and the island may soon face "zero hour"—a complete shutdown of water supply, sewage, and power systems. Analysts believe that the Trump administration's strategy of economic strangulation, rather than military intervention, closely resembles its approach in Venezuela, with the goal of forcing the Cuban government to make a decision at the negotiating table.

Energy Crisis: Approaching "Zero Hour"

Cuba's energy predicament has deteriorated sharply in recent months. Díaz-Canel admitted at a press conference last Friday that no fuel had entered Cuba in the past three months, and the energy shortage had reached an "unsustainable" level. "This gap is completely different from anything we've faced before, and the impact is huge," he said. "There are now tens of thousands of people waiting for surgery, but it's impossible due to power shortages."

The U.S. Embassy's internal telegram assesses that Cuba can theoretically produce about a quarter of its oil demand domestically, which should be enough to keep essential services like hospitals running. But the island may soon enter "zero hour," when water, sewage, and power will all shut down, threatening the operation of the embassy and the safety of personnel. Currently, the embassy is operating with half the staff, some residences' generators are allowed only four hours of use per day, and have been equipped with battery packs, solar panels, and satellite phones.

The root of this predicament lies in systematic U.S. sanctions. The Trump administration cut off previous oil supplies from Venezuela and threatened to impose heavy tariffs on any country exporting energy to Cuba. A Russian oil tanker, reportedly fully loaded and scheduled to arrive in Cuba in early March, ultimately failed to dock.

Secret Negotiations between Cuba and the U.S.

Díaz-Canel revealed in an address to Cuban party and government leaders that the talks with the U.S. were jointly led by "historic revolutionary leader" Raúl Castro and himself.

According to reports, the U.S. participants were advisors to Secretary of State Rubio. At the end of last month, while attending the Caribbean nations summit in St. Kitts, Rubio’s advisors met with Raúl Castro’s grandson, Raúl Guillermo Rodriguez Castro. However, some experts on Cuban affairs questioned his qualifications as a negotiator; other analysts speculate that 94-year-old Raúl Castro is bypassing the Díaz-Canel administration and teaming up with top military leaders for behind-the-scenes operations.

Rubio—whose political career is rooted in the anti-Castro circles of South Florida and is himself a descendant of Cuban immigrants—was asked earlier this year at a Congressional hearing whether he seeks to change the regime in Cuba. He replied: "I think we very much hope to see the regime change there… that doesn't mean we will directly facilitate it, but we would love to see it change."

U.S. Strategy: Economic Intervention Instead of Military Intervention

According to reports, the Trump administration's strategy clearly favors economic intervention over military intervention, aiming to control Cuba's current government institutions while temporarily preserving the existing governing structures—very similar to its approach in Venezuela.

A White House official responded anonymously to outside inquiries last Friday: "We are negotiating with Cuba; its leaders should reach an agreement."

Even so, Democratic members of Congress have attempted to erect legal obstacles against military options. Last Thursday, a group of Democratic senators introduced legislation to prevent military action against Cuba, which could be voted on by the end of March.

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