Next week’s key agenda: U.S. Nonfarm Payroll and CPI released together, China inflation, AI and robot Spring Festival battle

February 9 - February 15 Weekly Overview of Major Financial Events, all times are Beijing Time: Core themes next week: **Macro data focuses on China-US inflation.** Due to a brief US government shutdown, the non-farm payroll release is postponed to Wednesday, February 11, alongside the CPI. If a combination of “weak employment + strong inflation” occurs, it poses the biggest market risk. Domestic January credit and inflation data will also be released, with the market eager to verify the strength of the economic “good start.” **Secondly, the “Spring Festival offensive” in the tech industry.** The Spring Festival becomes a key battleground for AI application promotion, with giants like Alibaba and ByteDance launching billion-level subsidy campaigns, and new models like DeepSeek and Grok ready for release. In the capital market, software companies such as AppLovin and Unity will test whether the “AI-disrupting software causing stock crashes” narrative holds. Earnings from SMIC, NetEase, and Applied Materials will guide semiconductors and internet sectors; meanwhile, several hard-tech companies like Lead Intelligent and Aixin YuanZhi are seeking Hong Kong IPOs. **Third is a new geopolitical situation.** Trump confirms new round of talks with Iran, and the US military rarely convenes officials from 34 countries for a meeting. The complexity of geopolitical games is rising, requiring attention to oil prices and safe-haven assets. **Lastly, volatility in the precious metals market.** Next week, Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will intensively adjust margin requirements for gold, silver, copper futures contracts. --- **Economic Indicators** - **China Financial & Inflation Data** China will release January financial and inflation data. Caitong Securities expects January CPI to fall 0.4% YoY, PPI down 1.5%; Zheshang Securities expects CPI to grow 0.6%, PPI down 1.8%. Regarding financial data, the quality of the “good start” is of concern; Caitong estimates new social financing at RMB 7.38 trillion, Zheshang is more conservative at RMB 6.9 trillion. - **US Non-farm Payroll & Inflation Data Rarely Released Together** Due to the recent US "brief shutdown", non-farm payrolls will be released February 11. Next week sees the rare occurrence of simultaneous US NFP and CPI releases. Market expectations for January NFP are around 60,000-80,000; if lower, it will ignite rate-cut discussions. CPI needs attention to seasonal price increases. If “weak employment + strong inflation”, this will be the biggest market risk. **Financial Events** - **Iran Situation: Trump says US will re-negotiate with Iran (All week)** Markets will focus on planned new US-Iran talks. CCTV News reports President Trump has publicly confirmed talks next week. However, breakthroughs are expected to be difficult, as US demands a comprehensive deal covering nuclear, missile and regional activity, while Iran insists only on nuclear issues with lifting sanctions as core demand. - **AI & Robotics Battle Upgrades: Qianwen, Doubao, Yuanbao, Wenxin launch red envelopes/freebies (All week)** February will see a series of key developments in global AI. In China, the Spring Festival is a window for AI app promotion. From Feb 1–17, “Yuanbao” launches RMB 1bn cash giveaway. Baidu Wenxin offers RMB 500mn cash red envelopes Jan 26–Mar 12. On Feb 6, Alibaba’s Qianwen APP announced RMB 3bn for Spring Festival offensive, and extends free card to Feb 28, fully integrating with Hema and Taobao flash delivery. Additionally, Unitree Technology announced it’s CCTV’s “2026 Spring Festival Gala Robot Partner”, its third appearance. Multiple Chinese companies plan new models: DeepSeek will release the powerful V4 programming model in February; ByteDance and Alibaba plan to release Doubao 2.0 and Tongyi Qianwen 3.5 around Spring Festival. Internationally, February will also see product updates and commercialization actions. Musk’s xAI plans a major upgrade of Grok model. OpenAI is reported to launch chatbot ad services this month. Apple plans to release a new Siri powered by Google Gemini. In early February, Anthropic launched Claude Cowork, an AI tool capable of directly operating computers to complete tasks, causing some traditional SaaS stocks to drop. - **Munich Security Conference Feb 13–15, EU Defense Ministers meet in Brussels** Munich Security Conference takes place Feb 13–15, focusing on NATO's future and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. EU defense ministers will also meet in Brussels to discuss support for Ukraine. - **Reports: US Joint Chiefs Chairman to hold “rare” meeting, 34 countries' military officials convened** Global Times cites US media that, as the US military continues action against “drug trafficking ships”, Chairman Dan Caine is convening military officials from 34 Western Hemisphere countries for a “rare” meeting. ABC reports the meeting will be on Feb 11, “with defense ministers and senior military representatives from 34 countries to enhance consensus on common security priorities and deepen regional cooperation.” - **Shanghai Gold Exchange/Futures Exchange/Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange: Adjust margin requirements for gold, silver, copper futures** Shanghai International Energy Exchange: From Feb 9 closing, international copper futures’ daily limit adjusted to 10%, hedge position margin to 11%, regular position margin to 12%. Shanghai Futures Exchange: From Feb 9 closing, gold futures daily limit to 17%, hedge margin to 18%, regular margin to 19%; silver futures daily limit to 20%, hedge margin to 21%, regular margin to 22%. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange: From Feb 9 closing, methanol, PX, PTA, staple fiber, PET futures margin to 10%, daily limit to 9%. Shanghai Gold Exchange: From Feb 9 closing, Au(T+D), mAu(T+D), Au(T+N1), Au(T+N2), NYAuTN06, NYAuTN12 margin from 17% to 18%. Additionally, **Feb 13, SGE, SHFE, ZCE, DCE will not hold evening trading session on the last trading day before Lunar New Year's Eve.** - **Tesla to discontinue FSD “one-time payment mode”** Musk announced that Tesla will stop offering FSD as a “one-time payment” after Feb 14. Tesla currently offers FSD in US via $8,000 one-time payment or $99/month subscription. As of end-2025, about 12% of Teslas subscribe to FSD. - **Amazon Leo satellite launch** Amazon’s low-earth orbit satellite will be launched Feb 12 by ARIANESPACE. The satellite network, renamed Amazon Leo from “Project Kuiper”, has 180 satellites in orbit; this launch will carry the first 32, with planned constellation over 3,000 satellites and service planned for US, Canada, France, Germany, UK by Q1 2026 for users, businesses, governments. - **Fed Presidents Harker (Cleveland), Bostic (Atlanta), etc to speak, ECB's Lagarde discusses EU economy** Next week, 2026 FOMC voter Harker to speak on “banking and economic outlook.” 2027 FOMC voter Bostic to discuss monetary policy and outlook. 2026 FOMC voter Logan to speak. ECB's Lagarde will attend a discussion on EU economic status and ECB activity. **Earnings and HK IPO Updates** - **SMIC, NetEase, Applovin, Applied Materials, Coreweave** Earnings season continues, focusing on volatile AI apps/software stocks and key tech firms. Unity, AppLovin, S&P Global, Robinhood in the eye of the storm will validate the reasonableness of their recent stock drops. Meanwhile, Cisco, Applied Materials—“selling shovels to AI giants”—will shed light on AI demand. OpenAI-linked companies like Coreweave are also under attention. Major restaurant giants like McDonald’s and Coca-Cola will release results. Coinbase exchange to announce latest performance. Mining giant Vale will publish Q4 production report Jan 27, earnings report Feb 12. Among Chinese stocks, NetEase’s game business income and SMIC’s guidance on semiconductor recovery are in focus. - **Aixin YuanZhi Semiconductor HK IPO, slated for Feb 10 listing** Chip manufacturer Aixin YuanZhi seeks to raise HKD 2.96bn via Hong Kong IPO, plans to list Feb 10. Arranged by CICC, Guotai Junan, BankComm; retail/institutional subscriptions open. - **Montage Technology HK IPO, stock expected to trade from Feb 9** Chinese chip design company Montage Technology seeks to raise up to HKD 7bn ($902mn) via HK IPO, received $450mn cornerstone investment from Alibaba, JP Morgan, etc. 2025 net profit projected to grow up to 66%. Shares expected to start trading on HKEX Feb 9. - **Lead Intelligent HK IPO, stock to trade from Feb 11** Lead Intelligent applied for HK IPO, seeks to issue 96.3mn shares at guidance price cap of HKD 45.80, pricing expected Feb 9, trading from Feb 11. **Energy Reports, Industry Conferences and Other Events** - **Consensus Hong Kong 2026** Consensus Hong Kong 2026 conference will be held Feb 10–12 at HKCEC. - **New York Fashion Week Starts** New York Fashion Week begins, runs through Feb 16. - **International Energy Week in London Feb 10–12** International Energy Week takes place Feb 10–12 in London, gathering global leaders to address the energy transition. Oslo Energy Forum held simultaneously. - **Africa Mining Investment Conference** Africa’s largest mining investment conference is held in Cape Town, runs through Feb 12. - **OPEC publishes monthly crude oil market report** OPEC monthly oil report will be published (exact time TBA, usually Beijing Time 18:00–21:00). - **2026 Palm Oil and Lauric Oil Price Outlook Conference** The Palm Oil & Lauric Oil Price Outlook conference is held in Kuala Lumpur, runs through Feb 11. - **Bangladesh National Election Set for Feb 12** According to CCTV News, on Dec 11, 2025, Bangladesh Election Commission announced the national election will be Feb 12, 2026. - **Hang Seng Index Co. to publish Q4 index review results** Hang Seng Index Co. will announce Q4 index review results Feb 13. - **China Central Bank: RMB 150bn one-month Treasury cash deposit bidding** China Ministry of Finance and the PBoC will hold RMB 150bn, one-month term Treasury cash management deposit bidding Feb 10, 9:00–9:30, through the PBoC’s central Treasury management system. Operation is for 28 days, with interest starting Feb 10, maturity Mar 10 (extension on holidays), single-price tenders open to participating banks. - **Beijing launches old-for-new car subsidy, up to RMB 20,000** From Feb 9, Beijing will implement revised car old-for-new subsidy program, maximum RMB 20,000. The program includes “scrap-and-update” and “replacement-update” subsidies. “Scrap-and-update” refers to scrapping old car and buying new one; new energy passenger car buyers get 12% of sales price as subsidy, capped at RMB 20,000. - **Feb 15 0:00 to Feb 23 24:00, all national expressways waive tolls for small passenger vehicles** Transport Ministry spokesperson Gao Bo stated at State Council briefing that during Spring Festival, from Feb 15 0:00 to Feb 23 24:00, national expressways will waive tolls for cars with 7 seats or less. - **Ministry of Finance to issue RMB 14bn sovereign bonds in Hong Kong** Ministry of Finance will issue RMB 14bn sovereign bonds in Hong Kong SAR Feb 11, covering 2026 first batch, arrangements to be announced via HKMA’s Debt Instrument Central Settlement System (CMU). - **SK Hynix to cancel USD 8.6bn worth of treasury shares Feb 9** Bloomberg reports SK Hynix plans to cancel about KRW 12.2 trillion (~USD 8.6bn) in treasury shares to boost shareholder returns. The memory chip maker says it will cancel about 15.3mn treasury shares on Feb 9. Risk warning and disclaimer: The market is risky, investment must be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider individual users’ investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. Users should judge whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate to their specific circumstances. Investments based on this are at your own risk.