Next week's major events: China and US August CPI, China's social financing data, Apple iPhone 17 launch event
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Overview of Major Financial Events for the Week of September 8 - September 14, all times in Beijing Time:
Key focus next week: China's CPI, import/export and social financing data, U.S. August CPI and PPI data, European Central Bank rate decision, iPhone 17 new product launch.
In addition, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its annual benchmark revision of non-farm payrolls, adjusting the total non-farm employment for the year from April 2024 to March 2025. The market generally expects the data will be sharply revised downward. The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party faces the deadline to apply for an early election, which will affect the yen trend. Oracle and Adobe will announce their financial reports.
Economic Indicators
- U.S. August CPI Year-on-Year
Before the Federal Reserve's September meeting enters a quiet period, this week’s employment and inflation data will be the last and most important pieces in deciding its policy direction.
On September 11, the U.S. will release its August CPI report, the most crucial inflation data before the Fed’s meeting. Although the July Core CPI rebounded, the general market view is that with the cooling job market, inflation pressure is not enough to stop the Fed's rate cut pace.
WallstreetCN article states that Nick Timiraos, known as the "new Fed mouthpiece", said the lack of sudden acceleration in prices has likely removed an obstacle to rate cuts.
Earlier this year, Fed officials feared sharp tariff hikes would push up prices and trigger inflation. Although these concerns are not entirely gone, cost pressures have so far permeated the entire supply chain more broadly.
Worries from tariffs still exist, but the Fed now faces a new challenge: job growth has cooled in recent months, bringing new concerns to policymakers.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Releases Annual Preliminary Revision of Non-Farm Payrolls
The market generally expects the annual non-farm payrolls benchmark revision to be released on September 9 may reveal the U.S. labor market is actually weaker than previous reports suggested.
WallstreetCN article states that Nomura Securities expects this revision, covering April 2024 to March 2025, may result in a single adjustment cutting 600,000 to 900,000 jobs. Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered have also warned that due to distortions from the "birth-death model" and overestimation of labor population, monthly non-farm data may be exaggerated by 40,000-70,000 jobs.
This expectation is not unfounded; recent data shows the U.S. job market is cooling: August ADP job growth hit its lowest since January 2025, JOLTS job openings fell to the lowest since April 2021, and the Fed Beige Book showed most district firms were cautious about hiring.
Last year, a striking cut of 818,000 jobs triggered an unexpected 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September. Thus, the market is highly focused on whether this revision will open the door for another big rate cut. Currently, the pricing probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeds 90%.
- China August CPI Data
On inflation, on Wednesday, September 10, China will release August CPI and PPI data. CICC forecasts that due to last year’s high base and weak food prices this year, the August CPI year-on-year growth may fall to -0.4%. July data showed CPI YoY had already fallen to 0, and PPI MoM dropped 0.2%, reflecting continued weak end demand. Although July core CPI rebounded due to service prices, high-frequency data showed summer hotel occupancy and prices below previous years. For PPI, as "anti-internal competition" reforms cool off, prices of related goods have dropped from high levels, and industrial product prices may remain weak.
- China January–August Social Financing Increment
On financial data, August social financing and RMB loan data will be released. Reviewing July, though RMB loan growth slowed due to seasonal factors and local debt swaps, overall financial aggregate remained stable. By end-July, outstanding social financing and M2 grew 9% and 8.8% YoY, both above nominal economic growth. Analysts say more importantly, credit structure keeps optimizing, with inclusive SME and long-term manufacturing loan growth both exceeding the overall level. Meanwhile, new corporate loan rates in July fell to about 3.2%, reflecting ample credit supply and declining financing costs for the real economy.
- China August Import Data
On trade data, on Monday, September 8, China will release August import/export data. Previously, July dollar-denominated exports grew 7.2% YoY, imports 4.1%. GF Securities stated that, benefiting from advantages from industrial upgrading, with capital goods as an example, China's goods have increased their share in Africa, the EU, and elsewhere; coupled with local demand resilience, China’s export share may keep rising. Objectively, U.S. demand overdraft is appearing, and re-export tariffs are rising, so future exports may decline. Falling U.S. demand will directly hit China-U.S. trade and indirectly drag China-ASEAN exports.
- ECB Deposit Facility Rate
The European Central Bank will announce its rate decision on September 11, with the market generally expecting it to keep the deposit rate at 2% for a second straight time.
Previously, the ECB paused after eight consecutive rate cuts in July. President Lagarde recently said the 2% inflation target has been achieved and it will act to maintain price stability. The interim central bank governor of Slovenia bluntly said, “The ECB easing cycle is over.”
WallstreetCN article states that the ECB's statement unusually listed "trade disputes" as a main source of uncertainty, showing its caution ahead of clarity in U.S.-EU tariff policy.
Financial Events
- Apple Holds iPhone 17 New Product Launch
Apple has announced a special event themed "Blazing Forward" to be held at 1:00 a.m. Beijing Time on September 10, when the iPhone 17 series is widely expected to be launched. Wall Street investment banks believe the core highlights are a brand new product lineup and pricing strategy.
According to Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan, the iPhone 17 lineup will consist of four models, with the biggest change being a new ultrathin "iPhone 17 Air" replacing the underwhelming "Plus" model. This model is said to be only 5.5 mm thick, making it the thinnest iPhone in history.
Pricing is another focus. J.P. Morgan predicts that except for the Pro models, starting prices will remain unchanged. iPhone 17 Pro is expected to eliminate the 128GB base storage, starting at 256GB, and the starting price will rise from $999 to $1,099. This is a “stealth” price hike strategy to raise the average selling price of flagship models. The final price for iPhone 17 Air is critical, especially whether its price in China can stay below the 6,000 yuan subsidy threshold, which will directly impact its sales.
Goldman analyst Michael Ng is optimistic about the iPhone 17 series, believing that a larger base display, upgraded cameras, and a stronger A19 processor will strongly spur users to upgrade, driving Apple’s iPhone business revenue to grow 5% and 7% YoY in fiscal 2025 and 2026. This launch may also see new Apple Watch and AirPods Pro 3 products announced.
- Deadline for Japan's LDP to Submit Application for Early Election
A political storm is brewing in Japan. September 8 is the deadline for submitting a written request for an early LDP leadership election.
According to Yomiuri Shimbun, if more than half of members (172) submit written applications, an accelerated party leadership election will be held, with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at risk of stepping down. Currently, there are already 128 votes supporting an early leadership contest.
If the motion fails, Prime Minister Ishiba will temporarily survive this “palace coup,” easing concerns over Japanese politics and benefiting the yen. Conversely, if an early election is held, it will bring new uncertainties to Japanese politics, potentially being bearish for the yen.
- French Government Holds Confidence Vote Over Budget
A critical confidence vote in France could ignite a new political crisis and cause investors to worry that France is becoming the eurozone's new instability risk.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Prime Minister Bayrou said at a press conference on the 25th that to overcome the government’s predicament, he requested the National Assembly hold a confidence vote on September 8 for his government. The motion aims to force through a fiscal package containing €44 billion in spending cuts and tax increases. Bayrou reiterated the move aims to forestall worsening public debt risks.
However, leaders of major opposition parties in France have made clear they will vote against the motion. If a majority of MPs vote "no", Bayrou's government will be forced to resign, repeating the fate of previous Prime Minister Barnier’s government last year. Such political instability is quickly translating into economic liabilities, making France’s already fragile finances even worse.
WallstreetCN states this has already triggered a “stock and bond double kill” in French markets; the CAC 40 index plunged, and the yield spread between 10-year French and German government bonds surged to a multi-month high. There are concerns frequent political changes and high debt are causing France to follow Italy’s steps.
Earnings Reports
- Oracle Earnings Report
On the corporate side, Oracle will release its latest earnings report on Wednesday, September 10.
The company’s previously released report and positive guidance remain a focus for the market. Despite its Q4 cloud infrastructure (IaaS) revenue slightly missing expectations, management gave a very bullish outlook. WallstreetCN article states that CEO Safra Catz expects cloud infrastructure revenue to grow more than 70% in fiscal 2026—well above the current quarter’s 52%.
To support surging demand from AI clients (like OpenAI), Oracle intends to raise capex to above $25 billion in the new fiscal year. A key metric—remaining performance obligation (RPO)—surged 41% YoY to $138 billion, indicating strong future revenue visibility.
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