Next week's major events: China’s Golden Week returns, US government faces a shutdown, and non-farm payroll data remains uncertain.

Next week's major events: China’s Golden Week returns, US government faces a shutdown, and non-farm payroll data remains uncertain.

Key points to watch next week: U.S. federal government funding will run out on September 30; if Congress takes no action by September 29, a government shutdown could begin on October 1. U.S. non-farm payroll and ADP employment data, as well as China and U.S. September PMI will be released. The A-share market will close for 8 days during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party plans to hold a leadership election on October 4, with voting results possible.

In addition, initial U.S. jobless claims, September unemployment rate, Eurozone CPI, Japanese PMI and other data will also be released. Unitree Robotics is expected to submit its IPO application between October and December. South Korea will implement a temporary visa-free policy for Chinese tour groups starting September 29.

Weekly overview of major financial events from September 29 to October 5, all times below are Beijing time:

Economic Indicators

  • September Non-Farm Payrolls (10,000 jobs)

Following the Fed’s 25 basis-point rate cut in September, the U.S. September non-farm payrolls report released on Friday, October 3, will be crucial to assessing the future path of interest rates. However, it is worth noting that if the U.S. government shuts down, the release of key economic data such as non-farm payrolls may be delayed.

The significance of this data lies in verifying whether Fed Chair Powell's concerns about "substantial downside risk to employment" persist. Last month, U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, well below expectations.

Powell previously stated clearly that the labor market is "no longer as strong," and new jobs are even below the level needed to keep the unemployment rate stable. Therefore, if September's data are weak again, especially if job growth remains tepid and unemployment rises further, it will strongly support the Fed’s forecasts and fuel expectations for further rate cuts within the year; conversely, a notable rebound could trigger a reappraisal of the policy path in markets. Although Powell noted there is little broad support for a 50-basis-point rate cut, an exceptionally weak report could bring this option back into discussion.

  • September ISM Manufacturing Index, ADP Employment Data

On October 1, the U.S. will release the September ISM Manufacturing PMI. Previously, the August ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 48.7, marking the sixth consecutive month in contraction territory. The market will closely watch whether September's data confirms the improvement in new orders seen in August. If the new orders index remains in expansion for two straight months, it may reinforce expectations for a manufacturing rebound.

In addition, whether the employment situation in manufacturing can improve will be key in assessing the broader health of the economy. Although S&P Global’s final August PMI showed an acceleration in manufacturing expansion, the difference with the ISM data makes the September ISM report even more significant. With the Fed’s policy path still unclear and the global economy slowing, this report will be an important basis for judging whether U.S. manufacturing can recover and support economic growth in Q4.

On October 1, the U.S. September ADP Employment Data will also be released. In August, U.S. ADP private employment rose by 54,000, well below the 68,000 expected by markets.

  • September Official Manufacturing PMI

On September 30, China will announce its official manufacturing PMI for September. After the August reading came in at 49.4, markets are watching closely to see if this month’s index can return to expansion territory. Shenwan Hongyuan Securities thinks the focus will be whether new orders index keeps pace with the production index, and whether prices continue to rebound amid "anti-involution" policies. This data is a key indicator to gauge the strength of domestic demand recovery and end-Q3 economic momentum.

On the same day, September’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data will also be released.

Financial Events

  • September 30: U.S. federal funds run out; Senate reconvenes to review continuing resolution

House Republicans recently proposed a temporary spending bill to avoid a federal government shutdown on October 1, but the bill does not include healthcare policies demanded by Democrats, resulting in a political impasse.

According to Wallstreetcn, Goldman Sachs says that in theory, the last chance to avoid a shutdown will come after the Senate reconvenes on September 29. If Democrats change their stance, the House-passed extension could be approved. However, this is widely seen as unlikely.

  • The U.S. government may "shut down" on October 1

The current fiscal year for the U.S. federal government officially ends September 30. If Congress does nothing, a shutdown will begin on October 1.

Wallstreetcn writes that with both parties unwilling to compromise on healthcare spending, markets believe the chance of a U.S. government shutdown has exceeded 75%. Goldman Sachs says the shutdown could last about three weeks, similar to 2013. For each week the government is shut, quarterly GDP growth will decrease by 15 basis points.

If the deadlock continues, the shutdown will result in delayed release of major economic data for October such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, potentially dragging down quarterly GDP growth, and forcing the Fed to make October policy decisions without key data—significantly increasing market uncertainty.

  • October 1-8: 8-day A-share market closure for Mid-Autumn & National Day holidays

This year, the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays are merged, creating an 8-day "Golden Week" from October 1 (Wednesday) to October 8 (Wednesday). Note: September 28 (Sunday) and October 11 (Saturday) will be official workdays to compensate.

Due to this, the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-Share markets will be closed from October 1 (Wednesday) to October 8 (Wednesday), reopening on October 9 (Thursday).

Because of the long holiday, the domestic tourism market has entered a booking peak early, and a travel boom is expected. Fliggy’s "2025 Mid-Autumn and National Day Holiday Travel Indicator" shows that tourism booking is about 3.5 days earlier than in previous years, and bookings for flights, hotels, tickets, car rentals, and tours have far exceeded last year. Tongcheng Travel's report also predicts that the 8-day holiday will see "an increase in short-haul trip frequency and upgraded quality of long-haul travel," promising a vibrant Golden Week for travel.

  • Unitree Robotics plans to submit IPO application between October and December

Leading domestic robotics company Unitree Robotics announced it expects to submit IPO application documents to the stock exchange between October and December 2025.

  • Japan’s LDP plans party leadership election on October 4

Japan’s Prime Minister and LDP leader Shigeru Ishiba has announced his decision to resign. Japanese media reports that the LDP plans to hold a leadership election on October 4. Huatai Securities expects Japan’s new prime minister may take office in October. During this transition, party faction maneuvering will intensify and political uncertainty will remain high. Given that Sanae Takaichi is favored to win and emphasizes fiscal expansion, this could push up U.S. stocks and the yen, but Japanese bond yields may face further upward pressure.

Currently, the main contenders are former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, Cabinet Chief Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, as well as former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi and Takayuki Kobayashi. Notably, all five participated in last September’s leadership race and lost to Ishiba, so this election is being called by the opposition "a comeback battle of last year’s losers."

  • South Korea to implement temporary visa-free policy for Chinese tour groups from September 29

According to CCTV News, the South Korean government will implement a temporary visa-free policy for Chinese tour groups from September 29, with the policy initially lasting until June next year.

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