No extension upon expiration, the Trump administration will terminate Iran's maritime oil sanctions waivers this week.
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Amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the United States has relaxed its policy on sanctions against Iranian oil exports.
On Tuesday the 14th, US Eastern Time, the media quoted informed US government officials as saying that the Trump administration has decided to let the temporary sanctions waivers on Iranian maritime oil transport expire as scheduled. This “exceptional measure,” introduced during wartime to alleviate pressure on energy supplies, is coming to an end, which means US restrictions on Iranian oil exports may be tightened again.
Later, the US Treasury Department issued a statement on social media clearly stating: “The authorization to allow the sale of Iranian oil stranded at sea will expire in a few days and will not be extended.”
Analysts believe that, from a policy perspective, this US move of “first loosening and then tightening” is essentially a typical crisis response tool. The short-term goal is to ease supply shocks and stabilize oil prices, while the return of sanctions in the medium term means the resumption of the “maximum pressure” framework against Iran.
With the waiver expiring, the global energy market will once again face two core variables: whether Iran's crude oil exports will shrink again significantly, and whether the situation in the Hormuz Strait and geopolitical tensions will truly ease. Amid intertwined supply disruptions and diplomatic games, oil price volatility will remain high.
Temporary Waiver About to Expire: About 140 Million Barrels of Crude Oil Had Been “Released”
According to the aforementioned report on Tuesday, the US Treasury granted a 30-day waiver on March 20 for seaborne Iranian oil under sanctions, allowing some Iranian crude oil at sea to continue flowing to the market, with a total volume of about 140 million barrels.
This waiver will expire on April 19, which is this Sunday, and according to the report, the US government has no intention to extend it. This means previous Iranian oil transactions in transit will again face sanctions constraints.
Media pointed out that this move marks the end of the US’s short-term balancing act between energy and geopolitics. The core purpose of relaxing restrictions on Iranian crude supply was to “inject blood” into the market amid tensions in the Hormuz Strait and global supply shocks.
Background: "Exceptional Policy" Amid War Impact
This US government waiver was introduced during a time of escalating conflict in the Middle East in 2026, with the Hormuz Strait being temporarily blocked.
The US imposed a maritime blockade on Iran, affecting about 2 million barrels per day of exports. Global supply plummeted, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) stating that losses reached as high as 10 million barrels per day.
Against this background, the US briefly allowed some oil trades from Iran and Russia to curb skyrocketing oil prices and stabilize market expectations.
Indian media pointed out that India, after seven years, obtained Iranian crude supply again, directly benefiting from the US waiver policy.
Political Pressure and Sanctions Tools: Washington Adopts a Tougher Stance
On Tuesday, media noted that the temporary relaxation of sanctions on Iranian oil faced bipartisan criticism within the US, arguing that loosening restrictions on Iranian and Russian energy during conflict “sends the wrong signal.”
As the waiver expires, the US government emphasized it still holds “extensive sanctions tools,” including:
- Secondary sanctions on third parties purchasing Iranian oil
- Enhancing restrictions through relevant United Nations mechanisms
and warned any entities continuing to trade oil with Iran may face new penalties.
From a market perspective, investors are caught between two expectations. On one hand, the resumption of sanctions means Iranian crude supply may be restricted again; on the other hand, the market still hopes for US-Iran negotiations to bring prospects of easing.
Media noted that in anticipation of US-Iran negotiations, international oil prices have recently retreated, with Brent crude falling to around $95.
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