No matter how the war ends, the Middle East can never "go back to the way it was."
The ceasefire is only a pause button; the rules of the Middle Eastern geopolitical game have already changed.
According to Wind Trading Desk, on April 8, Helen Belopolsky, Global Head of Geopolitical Research at Deutsche Bank, published a thematic report "Iran Ceasefire: Nearing the End?" systematically analyzing the trajectory and subsequent impact of this crisis from an investor's perspective.
On April 7, the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire agreement. Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the Trump administration suspended the threat of launching large-scale military actions against Iran. Both sides agreed to conduct intensive diplomatic negotiations during the ceasefire period to seek a longer-term solution.
However, Deutsche Bank pointed out directly: "The situation remains extremely fragile."
The two sides still have significant differences on issues such as the progress of Iran's nuclear program, the pace of sanction relief, potential compensation issues, Iran's support for proxy armed forces, and long-term control of the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire provides a temporary cooling off, but the crisis has not been resolved.
Why "Reaching an Agreement" Is Still the Most Likely Outcome
Deutsche Bank sets "reaching an agreement" as the baseline scenario, and its logic is clear: The longer the conflict continues, the lower the marginal gains for the US.
The report points out that the US can now claim to have "significantly weakened Iran's capability for extraterritorial power projection" — including ongoing strikes against Iran's missile infrastructure, command network, and regional proxy system. Iran, in turn, can claim to have "demonstrated resilience and credible deterrence." Israel can also frame it as "successfully weakening one of its greatest existential threats," giving it a diplomatic rationale.
All three parties have room for a "decent ending" narrative, which is precisely the political foundation for an agreement to be reached.
Meanwhile, the report notes that Trump is facing rising domestic and international pressure, "as the economic cost of the crisis continues to grow, this pressure will only increase." This further reinforces the drive for negotiations and reaching an agreement.
No Matter How It Ends, the Middle East Is Already a Different Landscape
Deutsche Bank summarizes the historical significance of this conflict in one sentence: "This will be a gamechanger for the Middle East."
The geopolitical balance that has long maintained stability in the Middle East has been broken, and a "highly unpredictable new reality" is taking shape.
Iran: Heavy price, but increased leverage.
The report judges that Iran's strategic logic — "enduring more pain than its adversaries' political system can tolerate" — was validated in this conflict. Iran is likely to leave with three gains: stronger leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, potential easing of sanctions, and political credibility gained from "withstanding joint US-Israeli pressure." The price is the need to cautiously rebuild relations with gulf countries.
Gulf countries: Buffer zone gone, changing US relations.
Over the past month, gulf countries have endured hundreds of missile and drone attacks, directly exposed to conflict. The report states that the gulf countries "no longer have a buffer zone," and relations with the US will inevitably be affected. Deutsche Bank expects that after the crisis, gulf countries will push for diversification of diplomatic relations.
Israel and Lebanon: Fighting may not stop with the ceasefire.
The report notes that Israel's military actions against Hezbollah may continue even after the ceasefire with Iran. Currently, there are disagreements over whether Lebanon is included in the ceasefire. Deutsche Bank expects Israel will "seize the opportunity" to expand its operations against its adversaries.
From a more macro geopolitical perspective, another group of beneficiaries from this crisis is emerging.
Deutsche Bank points out that some Asian countries are taking the opportunity to position themselves as "defenders of international law and the post-WWII international order." Trump's recent tough diplomatic policies are creating "significant uncertainty" for both allies and adversaries, objectively providing a window for these countries to expand influence among regional allies.
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