Nobel Prize has an "insider"? 12 hours before the announcement, a mysterious trader made a "precise bet" on the Peace Prize winner at Polymarket.

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A mysterious trader’s precise bet 12 hours before the Nobel Peace Prize announcement has triggered a storm of insider trading suspicion.

According to media reports on Saturday, 12 hours before Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado was awarded the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize, a newly registered user codenamed “6741” made large bets on the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket, driving Machado’s chances from 5% to 70%, and ultimately reaping over $50,000 in profit.

The Norwegian Nobel Institute has launched an investigation, suspecting information leakage. Institute spokesperson Erik Aasheim said: “We have noticed that someone made huge profits by betting on this year’s award outcome. We will investigate whether this means someone illegally obtained our internal information.”

This incident highlights regulatory blind spots facing the rapidly growing prediction markets. As an offshore, unregulated platform, Polymarket does not prohibit insider trading and is not subject to relevant U.S. laws.

This event occurred at a critical moment when Polymarket’s valuation soared to $8 billion. The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange just announced this week it would invest up to $2 billion in the platform, signaling mainstream financial institutions’ growing interest in prediction markets.

Midnight Turbulence: The Precise Strike of a Mystery Account

A dramatic scene unfolded in Oslo early Friday morning, about 12 hours before the Nobel Peace Prize announcement, when a newly-registered account named “6741” suddenly began to bet heavily on Machado winning.

At this point, Machado was not considered a frontrunner by experts or in media reports, with her probability of winning on Polymarket at just 3.7%. However, thanks to “6741”, her odds soared to 31.5% in a matter of minutes, then further climbed to 73.5%.

According to Polymarket data, the mysterious trader bet $1,500 on Machado after midnight, while simultaneously putting $1,085 against a previous favorite—the Sudan “Emergency Response Room.” In this relatively small market, these bets were enough to significantly shift the odds.

Other traders quickly followed the trend. An account named “GayPride” continued to place bets as Machado’s probability hovered between 60% and 71%, ultimately profiting over $85,000.

The Nobel committee then made its final decision and called Machado just minutes before the announcement at 11 a.m. Friday morning. The five-person selection committee comprises a human rights advocate, a foreign policy expert, and three former ministers—all from Norway.

The Gray Zone in a Regulatory Vacuum

Polymarket, as a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, allows users to bet on yes/no outcomes for all kinds of events in politics, sports, and pop culture, with contract prices reflecting traders’ views on the probability of future events.

The platform does not prohibit insider trading. As an offshore, unregulated market officially banning U.S. participants, it is not subject to U.S. securities laws that prohibit insider trading. Even if participants trade based on leaked Nobel decision information, whether such trades are illegal remains unclear.

Harvard economist and former Obama adviser Jason Furman wrote on social network Bluesky: “A few days ago a student asked me how common insider trading is in prediction markets. Now I have the answer.” His post included a screenshot of the Polymarket Nobel Prize market.

Some economists think insider trading improves prediction market accuracy. But regulated U.S. platforms like Kalshi have set policies prohibiting insider trading.

On Polymarket, some users monitor trading data for clues of insider bets and base their own investment strategies on such activity. In August this year, a user named “romanticpaul” snapped up contracts before Taylor Swift announced her engagement, fueling similar concerns.

Commercial Ambitions of Prediction Platforms

This controversy arose at a key point in Polymarket’s business expansion. This week, NYSE parent company Intercontinental Exchange valued the platform at $8 billion and plans to invest up to $2 billion, highlighting mainstream financial institutions’ growing interest in prediction markets.

Founded in 2020, Polymarket currently bans U.S. users—stemming from a 2022 settlement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In recent months, the company acquired a small, CFTC-licensed exchange and hinted it plans to re-enter the U.S. market.

Polymarket gained fame for accurately predicting the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, outperforming traditional polls with its forecast of a Trump win. The platform has established close ties with the new U.S. government—Donald Trump Jr. serves as a strategic advisor to competitor Kalshi and is also an investor in Polymarket.

Sports betting is seen as Polymarket’s potential growth area in the U.S. market. Kalshi already offers contracts on professional sports events such as football and basketball, starting to erode market share from traditional sports bookmakers like DraftKings and FanDuel, run by Flutter Entertainment.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerMarkets are risky, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute individual investment advice and does not consider the unique investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any individual user. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein fit their specific situation. Invest at your own risk. ```